Rain and storm for Cpt

[Rocco1]

I've given up with the weather recently!? Ridging High Pressure and South Easterly wind should mean fine conditions, but apparently not. Another cutoff low is predicted for this weekend (Sun 5th), so we are really stuck in an unusual pattern...

Agreed. forcast for cut off low sunday monday in garden route. but it could all change and very dynamic.

 

[Captain Beer]

This looks like fun

 

[Gordon_R]

This looks like fun

View attachment 1206512

No idea where that is, but it's certainly going to be a wet weekend across much of SA. Not sure about CT itself though...

 

[Captain Beer]

No idea where that is, but it's certainly going to be a wet weekend across much of SA. Not sure about CT itself though...

Yeah sorry about that, an old small holding between Somerset West and Sir Lowry's
Better get my inflatable boat ready.

 

[Gordon_R]

Yeah sorry about that, an old small holding between Somerset West and Sir Lowry's
Better get my inflatable boat ready.

Black South Easters (our version of a cutoff low) tend to produce heaviest (orographic) rainfall along the windward sides of the mountains (like George in the Outeniquas last month). Forecasts are often an average over a large area, so the peak rainfall might be in the Overberg, with just small amounts of rain further west. Having said that, these kind of systems are very unpredictable...

 

[Segg]

This looks like fun

View attachment 1206512

51mm

 

[Gordon_R]

51mm

The actual numbers are a guesstimate, but this forecast shows 85mm for Knysna on Mon 6th: https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily...estern Cape/Eden District Municipality/Knysna

Edit: Every 6 hours the forecast updates, producing different rainfall peak locations and total amounts.

 

[Gordon_R]

Model rainfall charts are very uncertain, but give a good idea of the potential distribution and intensity over the next 3 days:



Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs.t00z.totp.day3.safrica.gif and https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/18/gfs.t18z.totp.day3.safrica.gif

 

[Gordon_R]

This morning's satellite image (8am on Sat 4th) shows early stages of development of the cutoff-low, with a dense cloud layer moving in over Cape Town, but still centered somewhat offshore to the north-west. Convection is also present over large areas of the interior of South Africa:



Source: https://eumetview.eumetsat.int/static-images/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/SOUTHERNAFRICA/

 

[Gordon_R]

Rainbow at sunset from Kenilworth (7:45pm on Sat 4th). South Easter blowing, rain started soon after.

 

[Fulcrum29]

Still no rain in Helderberg, there was like a drop.

 

[absynth]

Rainbow at sunset from Kenilworth (7:45pm on Sat 4th). South Easter blowing, rain started soon after.

View attachment 1207092

The light was very pink in the City Bowl.

 

[oldBastard]

I'm away for a week and you okes break the weather system. What k@k is this??

 

[Gordon_R]

I'm away for a week and you okes break the weather system. What k@k is this??

It's a La Nina year. The weather is broken...

 

[WAslayer]

Coming down nicely now in Oakdale.. was getting worried that I would have to water my grass from the tap again.. been great savings thus far with this unusual rain..

 

[genetic]

It's a La Nina year. The weather is broken...

So does La Nina mean more rain for SA with El Nino meaning drought?

 

[Geoff.D]

So does La Nina mean more rain for SA with El Nino meaning drought?

Generally yes, but not a given.

 

[Geoff.D]

Good Rains in the Karoo. 23 mm in Hanover and 12 mm on the farm. First real good rains in months.

 

[DapperDanMan]

Super-wet Graaff-Reinet.

 

[Pineapple Smurf]

Slight drizzle in Somerset West for last hour during loadshedding now