Rain and storm for Cpt

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Gordon_R said:
The outlook for the next week is quite unusual, with a few cold fronts, plus a well developed cutoff-low over the western and central interior of SA. The charts for the next 3, 5 and 7 days show the relevant areas affected:

View attachment 1331686

View attachment 1331690

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Daily animation: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs_precip_24h_safrica.html
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central karoo getting a ton of rain, very unusul - a mini cut off low over Nambia pulling in much rain mon-wed over northern cape. Cut-off lows normally around the change of seasons (Autumn and spring)
 
Rocco1 said:
central karoo getting a ton of rain, very unusul - a mini cut off low over Nambia pulling in much rain mon-wed over northern cape. Cut-off lows normally around the change of seasons (Autumn and spring)
Click to expand...

The seasons have been very weird this year (La Nina), with few cutoff-lows in the west of SA (and a monster one over KZN). The models are still fickle, and details are very hard to predict several days in advance.

Edit: Early forecasts showed heavy rain over the Eastern Cape (PE dams), but that seems less likely as the trough will be too far north.
 
Is this normal rain now, or are we expecting massive rains?

I really hope we get another proper storm, I liked it, although the Bellville one was mild.
 
Bucketed down from 1am here in deep South really hard for a few hours, skies clearing now but intermittent rain forecast for rest of today.

I reckon we had at least another 10-20mm overnight.
How's the rest of CT?
 
The SAWS doesn't have many rain gauges in the Northern Cape, but a few places recorded unusually heavy rain during the 24 hours to 8am on Tues 21st: https://www.weathersa.co.za/images/data/climate/nr_daily_rai.pdf
Highest include Twee Rivieren 28mm, Pofadder 27mm, Augrabies 25mm, Brandvlei 20mm, etc.

Further scattered rain is predicted over a wide area (as previously discussed). The next event for Cape Town is predicted on Thurs 23rd, with a combined front and upper-trough producing a weak cutoff-low, and rain along much of the Southern Cape coast:

totp_day3[20220622-25].gif

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs.t00z.totp.day3.safrica.gif
 
Gordon_R said:
The SAWS doesn't have many rain gauges in the Northern Cape, but a few places recorded unusually heavy rain during the 24 hours to 8am on Tues 21st: https://www.weathersa.co.za/images/data/climate/nr_daily_rai.pdf
Highest include Twee Rivieren 28mm, Pofadder 27mm, Augrabies 25mm, Brandvlei 20mm, etc.

Further scattered rain is predicted over a wide area (as previously discussed). The next event for Cape Town is predicted on Thurs 23rd, with a combined front and upper-trough producing a weak cutoff-low, and rain along much of the Southern Cape coast:

View attachment 1333538

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs.t00z.totp.day3.safrica.gif
Click to expand...
Gordy, are you sure about your crystal ball? The it's cold and the sky looks very, very dreary :unsure:
 
Didn't expect any rain at all today, been blowing pretty strong here past Fish Hoek since yesterday, died down about 6ish and been raining steadily ever since. No rain was forecast until Thursday.

Forecast can't get it right all the time.
Like they say, you can't beat the weather.
 
MirageF1 said:
Didn't expect any rain at all today, been blowing pretty strong here past Fish Hoek since yesterday, died down about 6ish and been raining steadily ever since. No rain was forecast until Thursday.

Forecast can't get it right all the time.
Like they say, you can't beat the weather.
Click to expand...
Same here. I got a bit suspicious when reading Gordy's usually accurate prediction because when I looked out the window it was heavily overcast over here in Kraaifontein.

It's raining quite a bit harder since my last post. I should say a nice drizzle actually.
 
The SAWS reports further widespread rain in the Northern Cape during the 24 hours to 8am on Wed 22nd: https://www.weathersa.co.za/images/data/climate/nr_daily_rai.pdf
Highest include Kathu 38mm, Postmasburg 31mm, Upington 31mm, Van Zylsrus 25mm, Kuruman 22mm, etc. A few scattered places in the Western Cape received light rain: Cape Agulhas 9mm, Elim 7mm, Struisbaai 7mm, etc.

The 10 day rainfall for the period to Tues 21st also makes for impressive reading: https://www.weathersa.co.za/images/data/climate/nr_10day_rai.pdf

Following the heavy rains last week the average dam levels for the Big 5 in the Cape Metropole rose 6.9% from 64.3% to 71.2%: https://www.capetown.gov.za/Family ...and-sanitation-services/this-weeks-dam-levels
The majority of this increase was inflow into the Berg River Dam, which rose 12.2% from 69.7% to 81.9%.

The long-term (10 year) dam levels are above average, close to the same week in 2021: https://resource.capetown.gov.za/do...ity research reports and review/damlevels.pdf
 
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