Rain and storm for Cpt

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daveza said:
Well this is Grabouw - do I dare presume if there is zip rain in Grabouw there's a likelihood of zip entering the dams...

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3rd time wrong! Trying to help here. Did you actually read what I posted?

Friday 09/02/2018
00:00–06:00 Cloudy. 20° 0 mm Light air, 1 m/s from northwest
06:00–12:00 Fair. 18° 0 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from northwest
12:00–18:00 Partly cloudy. 26° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from northwest
18:00–00:00 Rain. 22° 3.0 mm Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from west-northwest
Saturday 10/02/2018
00:00–06:00 Heavy rain. 17° 6.3 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from west-southwest
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Source: https://www.yr.no/place/South_Africa/Western_Cape/Grabouw/long.html
 
daveza said:
Well this is Grabouw - do I dare presume if there is zip rain in Grabouw there's a likelihood of zip entering the dams...
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Again, you're looking at daytime... Scroll down on that page and you'll see rainfall Friday night/Saturday morning
 
Just to show how forecasts differ and how fast things change. 10 days ago I saw a number forecasts that predicted fairly heavy rain in CT for this weekend. Then during the week those same sources started being less optimistic. Now tonight, the weather lady on e-tv also spoke about heavy rain.

The point with all of this is that models used by forecasters differ quite a bit, that models that work in the northern hemisphere may not work equally well in the southern hemisphere, and that in the end, it is still a bit of a guessing game.

All that is still uncertain is about a cut off low preceding the front that is heading for CT.
 
Geoff.D said:
Just to show how forecasts differ and how fast things change. 10 days ago I saw a number forecasts that predicted fairly heavy rain in CT for this weekend. Then during the week those same sources started being less optimistic. Now tonight, the weather lady on e-tv also spoke about heavy rain.

The point with all of this is that models used by forecasters differ quite a bit, that models that work in the northern hemisphere may not work equally well in the southern hemisphere, and that in the end, it is still a bit of a guessing game.

All that is still uncertain is about a cut off low preceding the front that is heading for CT.
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Anything you see in the media is at least 6-12 hours old! This is a very tricky system to predict, in particular due to inadequate data capture over the largely uninhabited South Atlantic Ocean.

The latest forecast has dropped again, showing modest amounts of rain 10-20mm, though always more over the mountains...

The cutoff-low has been ruled out in the last 3 model runs, and currently has negligible probability. It was a 'flash-in-the-pan', or statistical quirk, due to overinterpretation of the data by some models.

Once again, stay tuned. The final numbers will only be known much closer to landfall (or even afterwards, LOL!?)
 
Yes it seems the models all have a problem in interpreting the upper layer data and the interaction of what is going on between the lower and upper layers. It is this that is causing the predictions to swing from optimistic to pessimistic in a matter of hours.

And what is clear here is that one has to take care when using the raw data displayed by some of the more popular models around.
 
Geoff.D said:
Yes it seems the models all have a problem in interpreting the upper layer data and the interaction of what is going on between the lower and upper layers. It is this that is causing the predictions to swing from optimistic to pessimistic in a matter of hours.

And what is clear here is that one has to take care when using the raw data displayed by some of the more popular models around.
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+1 million
 
Very cool sight seeing the fog bank rolling in off the coast. Like a mini Independence Day...
 
Trust me guys - it will rain tomorrow. When 6am comes and 100s of bikes hit the road in Durbanville it will be wet - never fails.
 
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