SA Election 2019: Results

Stefanmuller said:
Most people I saw had the old ID books and got a IEC2019 stamp in them. I had a smart ID so no stamp. I would have thought the scanning of the barcode (which both forms of ID have), would be the obvious registering point where once scanned, that specific ID cannot be used again on voting day at any station (centrally linked system?).

If this is not the case then there exists a big loophole where smart ID holders can go and vote more than once at other stations. If you really wanted to, getting past the ink on the finger is relatively easy by either washing off, sanding it off, covering with makeup etc because that seems to be the only indicator that you have voted, seeing as the crossing out of your name would only be effective at the station that you were registered at?
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So you would be tracked via scanner and remote voting form.

These two would have to be bypassed for the station to be tainted and then the count audit would fail too..


vec + voter roll || scanner + voter roll == ballots issued (nationals and provincial, separate counters here too)

So yah it will get picked up.. then there is the statistical models that will also pick up abnormalities in voting patterns.

One MAJOR thing they are not mentioning is what the time period of the audit process is.. I suspect this may take more than a few hours. Also if the system validates scanner ids before submitting results..
 
First results in from a district in Mount Ayliff. 24 votes cast. ANC 11, EFF 8, UDM 2, ATM 1, not sure what the others were.
 
krycor said:
So you would be tracked via scanner and remote voting form.

These two would have to be bypassed for the station to be tainted and then the count audit would fail too..


vec + voter roll || scanner + voter roll == ballots issued (nationals and provincial, separate counters here too)

So yah it will get picked up.. then there is the statistical models that will also pick up abnormalities in voting patterns.

One MAJOR thing they are not mentioning is what the time period of the audit process is.. I suspect this may take more than a few hours. Also if the system validates scanner ids before submitting results..
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I agree that technically it can be picked up. But that means verifying each scan against all others for matches (duplicates), and to match each remote voting form for matches. The former seems easy if it is an electronic database but then why not just have a live system from the get go and prevent entry if an ID has been scanned earlier? The latter would mean some form of manual verification or data capture that would take a lot of time?

I wont be surprised if there are some standard error leniency built into the process. You will always get a few people out of 25million odd who succesfully cast two votes but they are statistically trivial. They probably run statistical tests per station to see if there are anomalies and only once it goes past the threshold would they investigate further. Anything below that is not worth the effort.
 
In 2014 the ANC got 62% (DA got 22%). In the 2016 municipal elections, the ANC took 56% overall (DA took 25%). The trend isn't looking great for the ANC considering the allegedly poor voter turnout in the townships today.

Final results will be interesting. Really disappointing that the DA still gets numbers in the 20's though. Even if they break 30% and the ANC loses a lot of votes from poor voter turnout, they don't stand a chance of outright victory.

Kinda blows my mind that SA has a viable opposition party to rally around and use to get the ANC out, but we'd rather argue the finer points of politics and vote for small randoms as if we're not a country in crisis. Can't we deal with that stuff after the DA has won a national election and the country isn't circling the drain?
 
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Bryn said:
In 2014 the ANC got 62% (DA got 22%). In the 2016 municipal elections, the ANC took 56% overall (DA took 25%). The trend isn't looking great for the ANC considering the allegedly poor voter turnout in the townships today.

Final results will be interesting. Really disappointing that the DA still gets numbers in the 20's though. Even if they break 30% and the ANC loses a lot of votes from poor voter turnout, they don't stand a chance of outright victory.

Kinda blows my mind that SA has a viable opposition party to rally around and use to get the ANC out, but we'd rather argue the finer points of politics and vote for small randoms as if we're not a country in crisis. Can't we deal with that stuff after the DA has won a national election and the country isn't circling the drain?
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ZACP :cool:
 
the DA and FF+ seem to be doing well but its too early to tell......
 
It's actually not as fun as watching international elections play out where there are a lot more stats so you get a ward by ward swing % to give you an idea where the election is headed.

These initial results actually don't tell us anything much as we can't see what the voters in the same areas did last time . Or am I missing it somewhere?
 
Bryn said:
In 2014 the ANC got 62% (DA got 22%). In the 2016 municipal elections, the ANC took 56% overall (DA took 25%). The trend isn't looking great for the ANC considering the allegedly poor voter turnout in the townships today.

Final results will be interesting. Really disappointing that the DA still gets numbers in the 20's though. Even if they break 30% and the ANC loses a lot of votes from poor voter turnout, they don't stand a chance of outright victory.

Kinda blows my mind that SA has a viable opposition party to rally around and use to get the ANC out, but we'd rather argue the finer points of politics and vote for small randoms as if we're not a country in crisis. Can't we deal with that stuff after the DA has won a national election and the country isn't circling the drain?
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Nope. A good chunk of DA supporters think they live in Europe/America and vote like people over there. Gonna see shyte if the DA ever get klapped out of the Western Cape ruling spot because of their silly voting patterns.

That being said the DA didn't do themselves any favours with a series of spectacular own goals over the past few years. From Zille's twitter rants alienating black youth, the De Lille debacle, CT water problems etc.

2019 should have been the DA's year but they bottled it.
 
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Knyro said:
Nope. A good chunk of DA supporters think they live in Europe/America and vote like people over there. Gonna see shyte if the DA ever get klapped out of the Western Cape ruling spot because of their silly voting patterns.

That being said the DA didn't do themselves any favours with a series of spectacular own goals over the past few years. From Zille's twitter rants alienating black youth, the De Lille debacle, CT water problems etc.

2019 should have been the DA's year but they bottled it.
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Incidentally, their response to some of those issues caused a bunch of other people to abandon them, including many on this site. They like Zille, so them distancing themselves from that stuff alienated them. Heh.
 
truman19 said:
the DA and FF+ seem to be doing well but its too early to tell......
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Yeah way too early (only 2.5% counted as I post this). But already starting to shape into what we'd expect with regards to outcome. See that out of country votes haven't been counted yet, either.
 
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