- A Social Research Foundation report investigated the potential political state of play if a successful motion of no-confidence in President Cyril Ramaphosa was passed.
- The report found that if the turnout were 58% on that day, the ANC would sit just above 20% without Ramaphosa as its leader.
- The ANC met several political parties this week after it announced on Tuesday that it would "reset" the GNU's rules of engagement.
If President Cyril Ramaphosa were to be removed through a motion of no-confidence in Parliament, a snap election would be held in which the ANC would claim just above 20% of the vote.
This is according to a report by the Social Research Foundation, a think-tank focusing on public policy.
The report investigated the potential political state of play if a motion of no-confidence removed Ramaphosa, who is leading a government of national unity (GNU) with 10 political parties.
In the 29 May general elections, the ANC secured 40.18% of the votes.
The data comes amid tensions in the GNU over the DA's decision to vote against Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's fiscal framework last Wednesday.
The ANC has met with several political parties this week after it announced on Tuesday that it would "reset" the GNU's rules of engagement. It is reportedly expected to meet the DA on Saturday.
The report states that:
The data indicates that without Cyril Ramaphosa as its leader, the ANC would sit just above 20%, placing it as the second-largest party behind the DA.
The DA, EFF, and MK Party would all receive moderate boosts in support, but the biggest growth would be among the "free agents" category, it said.
"This result is further evidence of the importance of Cyril Ramaphosa's presence in the ANC in maintaining that party's support levels. An interesting question is therefore raised as to what effect the loss of Ramaphosa's leadership after the 2027 elective conference will have on ANC support levels."
The data in the report comes from a survey of 1 004 demographically and geographically representative registered voters conducted by the foundation in February. That survey had a margin of error of 4%.
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In another survey, the same think-tank looked at whether registered South African voters believed Ramaphosa should have resigned as ANC leader after the poor performance of his party in last year's election.
The same sample was surveyed during the same period.
It stated: "The data reveals that around 55% of all South African voters believed that President Ramaphosa should have resigned after the May 2024 elections. The only demographic split that was strongly opposed to President Ramaphosa's resignation was ANC voters.
"Multiple results of the foundation's February 2025 survey point to a loss of confidence in President Ramaphosa amongst non-ANC voters, but simultaneously, within the ANC, whatever positive sentiment remains has attached itself to President Ramaphosa."