SA Politics Thread Part 12

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Vox Populi Vox Dei said:
After a month of no by-elections, we return with a few bangers! It will be one of the few sets of by-elections where the ANC will play no significant part! We begin in Tshwane where the DA should easily hold on. Curiously as Gareth Van Onselen points out, Action SA again do not participate in a Tshwane by-election. For a miniscule party, they really should be competing in these type of by-elections to gain visibility but alas, they seem to be scared of voters.

In George we have two very competitive by-elections. The Minister of Agriculture and DA leader has been campaigning (and here) in George recently, which suggests the DA are putting in a lot of effort to hold these wards. I'm not sure what will be enough to hold off the PA train, however, especially in Ward 17. They have a bit more to work with in Ward 27, so let's wait and see.


ProvinceMunicipalityWardPartyWard Vote Share
GautengTshwane57DA59.0
FF15.9
Western CapeGeorge17DA47.5 (39.7)
PA37.1 (1.3)
27DA51.8 (30.0)
PA33.6 (5.6)
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Interesting note on the Ward 57 by election. The VF candidate is Indian and stays in the ward while the DA candidate is white and does not stay in the ward. The DA election posters also talks about Tshwane and the VF+ election posters talks about the ward.
 
Blu82 said:
Interesting note on the Ward 57 by election. The VF candidate is Indian and stays in the ward while the DA candidate is white and does not stay in the ward. The DA election posters also talks about Tshwane and the VF+ election posters talks about the ward.
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DA 53.20%
VF+ 44.38%
ANC 2.19%
Truth 0.23%
 
Blu82 said:
Interesting note on the Ward 57 by election. The VF candidate is Indian and stays in the ward while the DA candidate is white and does not stay in the ward. The DA election posters also talks about Tshwane and the VF+ election posters talks about the ward.
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The VF did very well in a seat that isn't exactly traditional VF territory. Obviously lots of white Afrikaners are located within the ward, but as Wayne Sussman said, it's a suburban area rather than a rural ward, where the FF+ traditionally do best. The FF+ should be proud of their efforts here.
 
Vox Populi Vox Dei said:
The VF did very well in a seat that isn't exactly traditional VF territory. Obviously lots of white Afrikaners are located within the ward, but as Wayne Sussman said, it's a suburban area rather than a rural ward, where the FF+ traditionally do best. The FF+ should be proud of their efforts here.
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It wouldn't say they voted VF+ but rather for the person.
 
ghaye said:
The masses you say. With a 55% turnout? Okay.
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A very high turnout, even higher than the actual election.

So Yebo, the masses are rejecting the DA with contempt. There is a good reason Zille ran away from the Western Cape, she knew this was coming.
 
TheChamp said:
I wonder what happens to rented candidates after they fail to get the ward? Does the bodybuilder have to find a proper job or do they accommodate him somewhere?
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Checks notes. He seems to be providing updates on electricity issues in the area while the DA is busy celebrating their win.
 
ForceFate said:
That's a huge jump. What went wrong? GOOD voters?
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He's using the 2021 municipal results where the PA hardly troubled the vote counters. The more accurate base to use is the 2024 provincial ballot results by ward, which I used as the main figure in my table. Nevertheless, even using the 2024 provincial ballot numbers, the PA made gains in both wards, particularly the one they won with 60% of the vote.
 
Blu82 said:
DA 53.20%
VF+ 44.38%
ANC 2.19%
Truth 0.23%
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Some other interesting notes are the VF+ won two of the three voting stations with small margins while the DA won the third by a large marginn


This also corresponds to the issues each party was prioritising. If your only worry was potholes and area power outages the DA had your back. If the illegal townships, localised cable theft and sink holes was important to you the VF+ had your back.
 
TheChamp said:
A very high turnout, even higher than the actual election.

So Yebo, the masses are rejecting the DA with contempt. There is a good reason Zille ran away from the Western Cape, she knew this was coming.
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We clearly think differently on the matter. I think it's a very poor reflection on the voters. After years of "One man, one vote" as the reason for bombs, murder, arson and general mayhem I would have thought the masses would value their vote somewhat more. Maybe it was about something else and not the vote?
 
And more incompetence incoming.
Just seen an internal letter from a hospital chain in the east rand warning staff not to use municipal water as it has failed their tests.
Supplied by rand water
 
www.thecommonsense.co.za

Will the ANC Ignore Even the Latest and Most Dire Writing on the

Data from the Social Research Foundation suggests the ANC has ceded its majorities even in the constituencies that historically made it dominant,...
www.thecommonsense.co.za www.thecommonsense.co.za

The steep erosion of African National Congress (ANC) support is no longer confined to suburban swing voters. It is now equally evident in townships, rural areas, and low-income communities, the core blocs that once kept the party so comfortably well above 50% in national elections.

Late last year the ANC polled at 37% and the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 32%, a gap of five points. But the greater warning, perhaps even the writing on the wall, sat beneath the headline number.

Among black voters, the ANC stands at 45%, with the DA at 15%, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) at 15%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 10%.

Among rural voters, the ANC sits at 47%, with the DA at 16%, MK at 12%, and the EFF at 6%.

In townships, the ANC is at 39%, with the DA at 16%, MK at 14%, and the EFF also at 14%.

Among the poorest of people, those earning less than R2 000 a month, ANC support stood at 41%, with the DA at 22%, MK at 16%, and the EFF at 10%.

The implication is extraordinary, that even if black, poor, rural, and township voters were the only people who cast votes the ANC would still be at below 50%. That matters a lot because if the ANC cannot secure majority support among black, rural, township, and low-income voters, it has no plausible way back to political dominance.
Click to expand...
 
Klippy Klop
Klippy Klop
Old Robby McBride
Sold out by his cock

The juicy bit starts at around 10:00

 
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