Rouxenator : DVD's are popular because they're a cheap and easy way to have ALOT of movie in your own home that you can watch over and over again, not because you can copy them easily....
BD will become popular when the players and the movies are cheaper.. not when the writers and blank media become cheaper...
Wrong.
Remember ATRAC CDs from Sony ? Remember SACD ? Remember DVD-Audio ? Well thats all we can do, remember them, cause they are dead. Sure they had many advantages over standard audio CDs but most people already had CD players and already got their favorite music on CDs. So they did not bother with the audiophiles grandest new inventions. Plus they could easily make [-]copies[/-] backups of their CDs.
MP3 is only recently becoming more popular as it is more portable and much easier to [-]copy[/-] manage. Add to that MP3 was at first hated by the industry, so industry endorsement means zilch. It is all about the [-]dumb[/-] consumers and if they can justify getting all their DVDs on BD soon after shifting from VHS. In short, no.
As we have seen, consumers embrace something only if it is a major improvement over what they have. CDs where much better than tapes and LPs, so they went for it. It took them 25 years before they starting getting into the MP3 thing because they have much more control over MP3, the audio it makes is very much the same.
They went for DVDs because it was much better than VHS. Now they have a lot more control over DVD as they can [-]copy rentals[/-] buckup their own DVDs and also produce them with every second burner software package. Slowly they are embracing DivX and other MPEG4 standards for the same reasons as MP3s.
BD will take a very long time before it makes an impact on the market. Firstly it will have to become as cheap, if not cheaper, than DVD. Also consumers will want control over it, they will want to [-]copy[/-] backup BD without problems and make their own. Most digital cameras are now offering HD movie modes.
Remember - all my statements above are based on consumer trends - something you cannot reason with or apply fancy logic to such as the lines it produces on a display. Much like a woman
