South Africa's rooftop solar explosion

[Lupus]

Probably by getting more people registered? I wouldn't mind exporting my excess to bring my bill to zero but i cant even get registered.

So they thumb sucking then, cause how many people registered?

 

[wingnut771]

Probably by getting more people registered? I wouldn't mind exporting my excess to bring my bill to zero but i cant even get registered.

How would that help eskom see how much is going into your battery?

 

[Lupus]

How would that help eskom see how much is going into your battery?

By looking at your bill prior and looking at it now? Who knows magic?

 

[G.A.S]

Yeah, how would one measure this?

Not terribly difficult to get an idea, actually. You just need to know the per-minute draw on substation level / mini-substation level and compare cloudy vs. non-cloudy days.

 

[wingnut771]

Not terribly difficult to get an idea, actually. You just need to know the per-minute draw on substation level / mini-substation level and compare cloudy vs. non-cloudy days.

but they will be running on battery on the cloudy days, but I hear you, maybe on day 2 or 3.

 

[Lupus]

Not terribly difficult to get an idea, actually. You just need to know the per-minute draw on substation level / mini-substation level and compare cloudy vs. non-cloudy days.

Except they don't control most mini subs and substations that's municipality level. And if you've ever dealt with City power... you're really asking a lot

 

[G.A.S]

Except they don't control most mini subs and substations that's municipality level. And if you've ever dealt with City power... you're really asking a lot

Even then, it is possible to compare at a higher level (e.g. total to the city).

 

[TrueSeeker]

So yeah... I wonder if the many people who never failed to argue that solar and batteries are not the solution to load shedding, are eating humble pie, nice and quietly and well behaved. Or whether they just found another topic to be loud, obnoxiously self-assured, clueless and negative about. And, is it really about the subject to them, or is it actually about screwing up the conversation?

And why hasn't Gweezy been fired for being a poep yet?

 

[TrueSeeker]

Cheap PV prices, of course

This came from an old pricelist I downloaded when the first loadshedding started ~2008
View attachment 1693397

Did you go into a coma in 2008, and only woke up again recently my man?


The Y-Axis isn't even a linear scale... The price of solar has been dropping so much SINCE 2008, that it was necessary to go logarithmic. The price was already about half the 2008 price just 2 years later in 2010.

And you'd get about 6GW of the most expensive panel on your list for the small price of Medupi and Kusile (R310bn as of 2022, and counting) @ those 2008 prices. 12GW 2010. 30GW 2012. Etc... Etc... Not counting the ongoing cost of the debt, multi-billion rand yearly coal contracts, and the trillions in damage to the economy since they started that fiasco, attributable to that fiasco. Probably way more at wholesale prices too.

 

[Keegan89]

Have you not saved 10k from you electric bill since then?

Not far off of 10k. Will get there in about 12 months from installation. Just bleak that it all got cheaper.

 

[Pegging]

Not far off of 10k. Will get there in about 12 months from installation. Just bleak that it all got cheaper.

Include the fact that you had 24/7 electricity and didn’t have to use workarounds, then you can feel less bleak.

 

[Unhappy1]

So they thumb sucking then, cause how many people registered?

No im not saying they have the data but if they did registrations properly they would have better data.

How would that help eskom see how much is going into your battery?

When you register you put down your system specs afaik.

 

[G.A.S]

Did you go into a coma in 2008, and only woke up again recently my man?
View attachment 1693553

The Y-Axis isn't even a linear scale... The price of solar has been dropping so much SINCE 2008, that it was necessary to go logarithmic. The price was already about half the 2008 price just 2 years later in 2010.

And you'd get about 6GW of the most expensive panel on your list for the small price of Medupi and Kusile (R310bn as of 2022, and counting) @ those 2008 prices. 12GW 2010. 30GW 2012. Etc... Etc... Not counting the ongoing cost of the debt, multi-billion rand yearly coal contracts, and the trillions in damage to the economy since they started that fiasco, attributable to that fiasco. Probably way more at wholesale prices too.

1 - There was no reason to start insulting.
2 - You are basically saying the same thing. And as you say, due to the graph being logarithmic, it doesn't even give an idea of how much prices actually dropped. People doesn't always realize exactly how expensive private/rooftop solar was when loadshedding first started, and how much the prices dropped since. The pricelist was merely "for fun".
[edit: yeah, per below]

 

[TrueSeeker]

1 - There was reason to start insulting.
2 - You are basically saying the same thing. And as you say, due to the graph being logarithmic, it doesn't even give an idea of how much prices actually dropped. People doesn't always realize exactly how expensive private/rooftop solar was when loadshedding first started, and how much the prices dropped since. The pricelist was merely "for fun".

I presume you meant "there was no reason"

I just thought a list from, for example 2015 would have been more contemporarily relevant. I mean you replied to a comment where somebody wondered "what triggered it". 2008, 16 years ago, the year before prices started to drop seemed fairly... picky. On the face of it. I'm of course perfectly happy to apologize if the logical conclusion was the wrong one.

Load shedding started almost two decades ago. Solar prices had come down a lot long before this uptake. Like a lot a lot. Enough that there was already significant margin above wholesale panel per Watt prices for actual local competitive forces to make residential solar eminently affordable. What we lacked was a market more than anything else.

And what broke the standoff was Stage 6 load shedding. And a sustained period of about 2 years where hardly any time went by without load shedding ranging from stage 2 to 6. People got tired. People got real angry. The ANC gov couldn't maintain it's policy of scaring people away from getting solar anymore without looking like jerks to everyone. Heck I know I was uncertain for years thanks to a random statements they kept dropped here and there. Would have gotten solar a long time ago if it wasn't for that. Municipalities got to call the shots with licensing. Regulations around self-generation was finally relaxed. Solar became good business in SA. No speculation required. It became worth it to import at substantial scale.

I believe solar uptake in SA had been artificially suppressed for years before they finally had no choice. They practically maintained that status quo for as long as possible. Right up to the breaking point. Just like it was with broadband with Telkom. And just like it still is with EVs, where they seem dead set on SA paying double or more of the worth of EVs elsewhere for as long as possible. The ANC just like to keep things, just so. Just the way it's convenient for them and their money making plans in their cabal. The economic consequences, short, medium and long term be damned. The prosperity and dignity of the average citizen be damned. I've heard of hitting every branch on the way down. The ANC seems determined for SA to keep hitting the same branch. Stuck in a terminal loop.

 

[G.A.S]

I presume you meant "there was no reason"

I just thought a list from, for example 2015 would have been more contemporarily relevant. I mean you replied to a comment where somebody wondered "what triggered it". 2008, 16 years ago, the year before prices started to drop seemed fairly... picky. On the face of it. I'm of course perfectly happy to apologize if the logical conclusion was the wrong one.

Load shedding started almost two decades ago. Solar prices had come down a lot long before this uptake. Like a lot a lot. Enough that there was already significant margin above wholesale panel per Watt prices for actual local competitive forces to make residential solar eminently affordable. What we lacked was a market more than anything else.

And what broke the standoff was Stage 6 load shedding. And a sustained period of about 2 years where hardly any time went by without load shedding ranging from stage 2 to 6. People got tired. People got real angry. The ANC gov couldn't maintain it's policy of scaring people away from getting solar anymore without looking like jerks to everyone. Heck I know I was uncertain for years thanks to a random statements they kept dropped here and there. Would have gotten solar a long time ago if it wasn't for that. Municipalities got to call the shots with licensing. Regulations around self-generation was finally relaxed. Solar became good business in SA. No speculation required. It became worth it to import at substantial scale.

I believe solar uptake in SA had been artificially suppressed for years before they finally had no choice. They practically maintained that status quo for as long as possible. Right up to the breaking point. Just like it was with broadband with Telkom. And just like it still is with EVs, where they seem dead set on SA paying double or more of the worth of EVs elsewhere for as long as possible. The ANC just like to keep things, just so. Just the way it's convenient for them and their money making plans in their cabal. The economic consequences, short, medium and long term be damned. The prosperity and dignity of the average citizen be damned. I've heard of hitting every branch on the way down. The ANC seems determined for SA to keep hitting the same branch. Stuck in a terminal loop.

Correct.

As for why 2008, that was merely because I remember looking around due to the loadshedding at the time and happened to save it. But home PV was just completely unaffordable at the time, and I shelved the idea (I just happened to find the file again last year while going through my old backup disks).

If there were stage 6 at the time, the only option would have been a diesel generator (as many businesses did).

 

[DashPole]

That's about equal to Eskom's entire peaking power plant capacity. Saving diesel is good. Unfortunately we still need all that capital and more on standby, for when the sun goes down.

It would be interesting to see how the demand has decreased during the evening, a lot of people use their batteries at night to reduce grid consumption.

 

[Paul_S]

It would be interesting to see how the demand has decreased during the evening, a lot of people use their batteries at night to reduce grid consumption.

The only time I connect to the grid is if it's been a bad solar day and I can see that the batteries are not going to last through the night. The inverter pulls 1 or 2kWh from the grid at around 4AM to keep the batteries at 35% and then I switch the grid feed off again before 6AM and let the sun take over.

My total grid import for 2023 was 226kWh.
8kW Sunsynk, 2 x 5.3kWh BSLBatt and 12 x 540W panels



If I add one more battery I will never need to connect to the grid again unless it's an emergency (inverter or batteries fail) but that doesn't make financial sense because I only need to purchase R500 worth of pre-paid once per year. That would never cover the cost of another 5kWh battery.

I hooked up my borehole and booster pump setup to my house this month too and turned off the water mains to the property. The only thing the municipality is going to get from me going forward is rates, refuse and fixed water and sanitation charges which amount to around R2500/month in total.

Municipalities are going to collapse unless they get the non-payers to start paying for services. If they jack up my rates like eThekwini just did, we can have a rates boycott on our hands. What is the municipality going to do? Cut off my water and electricity which is already off? Good luck to them trying to prosecute thousands of paying customers who can just semigrate and leave them with a financial black hole.

 

[wingnut771]

The only time I connect to the grid is if it's been a bad solar day and I can see that the batteries are not going to last through the night. Then the inverter pulls 1 or 2kWh from the grid at around 4AM to keep the batteries at 35% and then I switch the grid feed off again before 6AM and let the sun take over.

My total grid import for 2023 was 226kWh.
8kW Sunsynk, 2 x 5.3kWh BSLBatt and 12 x 540W panels

View attachment 1693671

If I add one more battery I will never need to connect to the grid again unless it's an emergency (inverter or batteries fail) but that doesn't make financial sense because I only need to purchase R500 worth of pre-paid once per year. That would never cover the cost of another 5kWh battery.

I hooked up my borehole and booster pump setup to my house this month too and turned off the water mains to the property. The only thing the municipality is going to get from me going forward is rates, refuse and fixed water and sanitation charges which amount to around R2500/month in total.

You need to plan for your substation blowing up during 7 days of cloudy weather. You need a genny.

 

[Paul_S]

You need to plan for your substation blowing up during 7 days of cloudy weather. You need a genny.

Yip, I have a 9kVA genny too but never use it. I used it a lot during 2022 and then realised that the cost of fuel would quickly outweight the cost of a solar system.

 

[Mike Hoxbig]

Yip, I have a 9kVA genny too but never use it. I used it a lot during 2022 and then realised that the cost of fuel would quickly outweight the cost of a solar system.

Hook it up to your inverter to charge your batteries on those days...