South Africa's third wave "stuck"

[Jan]

Covid–19 third wave in South Africa — going nowhere slowly

The number of new Covid–19 cases in South Africa has stopped declining and is trending sideways.

South Africa’s third wave of the Covid–19 pandemic is “going nowhere, slowly,” CSIR researcher Ridhwaan Suliman said on Twitter over the weekend.

 

[Gordon_R]

Anecdotal evidence would suggest that many of the recent positive cases are amongst schoolchildren, the article does not break down by age. The graphs for hospital admissions are more important at this stage, and are declining somewhat. Both seem to be related to the different effects of the Delta variant, and some immunity in older people due to the vaccine rollout. Welcome to the new normal...

 

[JohnStarr]

Yeah, the numbers are not going up or down. How many serious cases are involved?

 

[pinball wizard]

Who cares.
It's the hospitalisation (and ICU) number that matters.
This fixation on testing is ****ing crazy.

 

[Gordon_R]

Who cares.
It's the hospitalisation (and ICU) number that matters.
This fixation on testing is ****ing crazy.

You did see the chart for new hospital admissions in the article:

 

[pinball wizard]

You did see the chart for new hospital admissions in the article:

Article? Are you new here?

 

[pinball wizard]

You did see the chart for new hospital admissions in the article:

Yeah, looks like they're still trending down, am I reading it right?

So again, what's the problem with the new case hoopla?

 

[Gordon_R]

Yeah, looks like they're still trending down, am I reading it right?

So again, what's the problem with the new case hoopla?

The media (and government) have been fixated on new cases for so long, it will take time to adjust to a new paradigm. Clearly Covid is becoming endemic, and Delta is a game changer. When 50 schoolchildren test positive, it's not as big a story as if the same number of elderly got sick. All the more reason to get vaccinated, but not to panic.

 

[dualmeister]

So we are going to slide straight into the fourth wave from the third wave?

 

[ToxicBunny]

So we are going to slide straight into the fourth wave from the third wave?

Nah, we'll just call it "Adjusted 3rd Wave Beta 7 Reinvigorated"

 

[Lupus]

Who cares.
It's the hospitalisation (and ICU) number that matters.
This fixation on testing is ****ing crazy.

 

[Lupus]

The media (and government) have been fixated on new cases for so long, it will take time to adjust to a new paradigm. Clearly Covid is becoming endemic, and Delta is a game changer. When 50 schoolchildren test positive, it's not as big a story as if the same number of elderly got sick. All the more reason to get vaccinated, but not to panic.

This is the thing, people need to start living with it, as "scary" as it sounds.

 

[neoprema]

We need to stop tracking infections and track hospitalization and death. COVID-19 infections will come and go, even amongst vaccinated. The point is that its just another "flu". Unless we see sharp increases in deaths and hospital admissions in which case its a problem or "wave".

 

[Lupus]

We need to stop tracking infections and track hospitalization and death. COVID-19 infections will come and go, even amongst vaccinated. The point is that its just another "flu". Unless we see sharp increases in deaths and hospital admissions in which case its a problem or "wave".

I've been saying this from the start, what does it really achieve? Especially since it's not really 100%

 

[SlinkyMike]

Who cares.
It's the hospitalisation (and ICU) number that matters.
This fixation on testing is ****ing crazy.

How is it crazy to test people for a virus? What is the alternative? I know the wastewater tests are proving valuable in some places. China did a great track and trace exercise using sample pooling - that proved promising in terms of stopping the virus from spreading past a small area.

I understand people are frustrated with the situation and that many irrationally expect scientists to know everything about an emergent phneomena but 'testing is fscking crazy' is just a profoundly stupid comment to make. WTH?

 

[Lupus]

How is it crazy to test people for a virus? What is the alternative? I know the wastewater tests are proving valuable in some places. China did a great track and trace exercise using sample pooling - that proved promising in terms of stopping the virus from spreading past a small area.

I understand people are frustrated with the situation and that many irrationally expect scientists to know everything about an emergent phneomena but 'testing is fscking crazy' is just a profoundly stupid comment to make. WTH?

Well back in the past, the BC times, you were tested for a virus if you A. Suspected infection or B. Had symptoms.
Now a lot of people need to be tested to work, for travel or surgeries or or.

 

[neoprema]

I've been saying this from the start, what does it really achieve? Especially since it's not really 100%

Yeah but last year I thought Earth was gonna look like a scene from I am Legend in 6 months so yeah...

 

[Lupus]

Yeah but last year I thought Earth was gonna look like a scene from I am Legend in 6 months so yeah...

That you did . But at least it didn't happen like that and you also pulled through which is a good thing too. I know I give you a little grief over your paranoia last year, but I suppose some people were genuinely scared.

 

[pinball wizard]

How is it crazy to test people for a virus? What is the alternative?

The way testing is done in SA is a massive and unnecessary drain on resources.

Several things are at play. Only around 1 in 5 people tested is actually positive, there are continual and verified findings coming out of the scientific community that as many as 50% of the people in SA (and maybe more) have already been infected - and importantly, never tested. That means that testing is generating an increasingly meaningless number.

It is placing a drain on resources. Just imagine if the money spent on all these tests was spent on preparing the medical facilities instead, Or spent on rapid molecular testing or lateral flow testing or even rapid antigen testing, which you could deploy at (for example) restaurants. One would simply arrive 20 minutes before your reservation, get a test and business could have carried on as normal. There are many more significant financial benefits that impact society and importantly, the healthcare industry that come with removal of mass testing.

Here's an example of how it impacts school kids (this persistent "wave" appears to be sparked by school kids:

Under the current system, if a schoolchild becomes infected with the coronavirus, pupils who have been in close contact with them have to self-isolate for ten days. In some cases, whole year groups may have to self-isolate.

Such mass self-isolation is hugely disruptive. Yet despite the clamour to switch to other protective measures, such as rapid testing of pupils who have been in close contact with an infected pupil, the public service union Unison has supported self-isolation as “one of the proven ways to keep cases under control”.

Self-isolation can indeed be effective at preventing transmission, but it is a blunt tool. A child who has been in close contact with someone who has tested positive for the virus may not become infected themselves.

In the above quote, swap out "pupil" for person, and see how it could apply to life across the board.

In a rational world, one need only be tested in order to enter a venue, or if your symptoms are severe enough to warrant a doctor or hospital visit, and then it simply be part of a standard diagnostic procedure.

The mass testing in SA is used as an instrument to cause fear uncertainty and doubt, and to implement increasing political control as a result.

 

[dualmeister]

Nah, we'll just call it "Adjusted 3rd Wave Beta 7 Reinvigorated"

OK, just warn me when the alcohol bans kicks in again