The Bitcoin Thread

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SaiyanZ said:
I don't really believe in prices moving towards the average. If that were true then it would stabilize around a price and not move much but as we've seen there are huge movements up and down away from the average. Like the move from $5k to $19k for example. If you were looking at moving averages you would always think that the price was going to go down instead of up.

Essentially what a moving average chart is saying is "Oh it went up too much so it must come down. Just because."
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Sure, but when a sell-off occurs people tend to use some target for where the price might find support and where to buy back in - trendlines and Moving Averages being two such metrics. Used as an indicator of how low a price is likely to go, I find it very useful. If all traders were arbitrarily buying and selling without using any references I'd agree, but the self-fulfilling nature of these charts provides a useful picture to work with.

How do you account for most major downward price movements on that chart bouncing off a major moving average?
 
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retromodcoza said:
View attachment 493090

For interests sake , attached is our Fourier and projection analysis of where bitcoin is headed.
Green and red line denote trends. Orange line is an indicator of the direction the price is heading.

Obviously the graph is an indication only , and is not going to be perfect.
Click to expand...

Who is "our"?
And what would the software have predicted at November 2016 do you reckon? Just curious.
 
saor said:
Sure, but when a sell-off occurs people tend to use some target for where the price might find support and where to buy back in - trendlines and Moving Averages being two such metrics. Used as an indicator of how low a price is likely to go, I find it very useful. If all traders were arbitrarily buying and selling without using any references I'd agree, but the self-fulfilling nature of these charts provides a useful picture to work with.

How do you account for most major downward price movements on that chart bouncing off a major moving average?
Click to expand...


I think that the support lines that make more theoretical sense are the "previous lows become highs and previous highs become lows". Especially if there were large volumes at these highs and lows. Orders generally get left/placed on the book at these prices which create resistance.

I'm just trading for 2 months now though without any prior investing experience so I'm still learning the game. I've been reading and looking at chart history. If I had tried used moving averages to predict BTC up/down movement I would have probably wrong more often than not. Also there's several of them we can plot so in hindsight certain ones have to show a bounce off it.
 
saor said:
Sure, but when a sell-off occurs people tend to use some target for where the price might find support and where to buy back in - trendlines and Moving Averages being two such metrics. Used as an indicator of how low a price is likely to go, I find it very useful. If all traders were arbitrarily buying and selling without using any references I'd agree, but the self-fulfilling nature of these charts provides a useful picture to work with.

How do you account for most major downward price movements on that chart bouncing off a major moving average?
Click to expand...

that's a strategy employed by traders with assets which actually have some value, so you can refer to company financial's etc to see if things are over or under valued

there is no such thing for bitcoin, its essentially just what people value it to be
 
manicminer said:
Who is "our"?
And what would the software have predicted at November 2016 do you reckon? Just curious.
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www.rcis.co.za - Its our projection algorithms we use on stocks. It won't be as accurate for bitcoin for a lot of reasons.

I ran the below graph in early December. Basically it means : WAY overpriced. The further the price gets away from the smooth curved line , the more likely and dramatic the snap back is.

Sadly , when I ran this graph there were no exchanges offering short positions.

bitcoinfourier.jpg
 
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saturnz said:
that's a strategy employed by traders with assets which actually have some value, so you can refer to company financial's etc to see if things are over or under valued

there is no such thing for bitcoin
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A large amount of truth here , which is why we battle to predict movements short term. We can tell you in the medium term that its overpriced or underpriced. Or way overpriced or underpriced. But thats about it.
 
saor said:
If I was trading this I'd be watching to see what happens if/when it falls to the 200 day EMA at around $9k. It would mark the first time in recent history that it hits that marker & I'd be quite surprised to see it go lower.

View attachment 493116
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Agreed
The further out that prediction of mine gets - the murkier it gets. 2-3 months ahead is more accurate. 9k seems like a lower limit to me. If it goes below that it wont go much further below. If it goes well below that its buy time.
 
saturnz said:
that's a strategy employed by traders with assets which actually have some value, so you can refer to company financial's etc to see if things are over or under valued

there is no such thing for bitcoin, its essentially just what people value it to be
Click to expand...
If we're talking about the same thing then I actually don't know how to respond.

If you go to tradingview.com and open any crypto chart - Bitcoin or one of the 1000 other altcoins, you'll see chart patterns and behaviour that's similar to that of almost any other traded asset. The common denominator is human psychology - people still employ the same techniques to trade these assets, regardless of whether they're stock, bitcoin, monkeys or bananas.

If any random crypto shows typical chart behaviour, and such charts are freely available to you to look at & confirm - then either we're talking past each other, or you're making a claim that flies in the face of an abundance of evidence. I'm not using charts to value a crypto asset, I'm using them to predict the patterns that are likely to occur so as to make trading decisions that work out better than random chance.
 
retromodcoza said:
View attachment 493090

For interests sake , attached is our Fourier and projection analysis of where bitcoin is headed.
Green and red line denote trends. Orange line is an indicator of the direction the price is heading.

Obviously the graph is an indication only , and is not going to be perfect.
Click to expand...

I have to disagree. We will see a good recovery and BTC will exceed ATH within the next few months.

But that is the problem with trying to predict the future - everybody see it happening differently, based on the data they use, and their point of view.
 
retromodcoza said:
www.rcis.co.za - Its our projection algorithms we use on stocks. It won't be as accurate for bitcoin for a lot of reasons.

I ran the below graph in early December. Basically it means : WAY overpriced. The further the price gets away from the smooth curved line , the more likely and dramatic the snap back is.

Sadly , when I ran this graph there were no exchanges offering short positions.

View attachment 493136
Click to expand...

There were plenty, they just weren't the traditional type ;)
Poloniex was one of the most popular. They have a lending section.
 
I agree with the general sentiment that traditional tools aren't nearly as effective with crypto as they are with forex, simply because the market is unregulated and can move in a different direction to what the trends and tools tell you without warning.
 
Tether printed another 100m USDT yesterday which is prob the main reason it didn't fall to 9K.
I think we'll see a small recovery. But we haven't seen the real bottom yet. We'll only hit it once tether/bitfinex collapses. It's just a matter of when it collapses.
Hopefully it only collapses once Lightning has gone 1.0 and seen major retail adoption. But that's probably just wishful thinking on my part.
 
digitalis said:
Tether printed another 100m USDT yesterday which is prob the main reason it didn't fall to 9K.
I think we'll see a small recovery. But we haven't seen the real bottom yet. We'll only hit it once tether/bitfinex collapses. It's just a matter of when it collapses.
Hopefully it only collapses once Lightning has gone 1.0 and seen major retail adoption. But that's probably just wishful thinking on my part.
Click to expand...

Yes, I agree. This is a big risk!
 
retromodcoza said:
www.rcis.co.za - Its our projection algorithms we use on stocks. It won't be as accurate for bitcoin for a lot of reasons.

I ran the below graph in early December. Basically it means : WAY overpriced. The further the price gets away from the smooth curved line , the more likely and dramatic the snap back is.

Sadly , when I ran this graph there were no exchanges offering short positions.

View attachment 493136
Click to expand...

Do you have an early November/October graph? I think the prediction there will be interesting to see.
 
digitalis said:
Tether printed another 100m USDT yesterday which is prob the main reason it didn't fall to 9K.
I think we'll see a small recovery. But we haven't seen the real bottom yet. We'll only hit it once tether/bitfinex collapses. It's just a matter of when it collapses.
Hopefully it only collapses once Lightning has gone 1.0 and seen major retail adoption. But that's probably just wishful thinking on my part.
Click to expand...

Where do you see these Tether release schedules? I tried to find something yesterday with google but had no luck.
 
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