The Brexit Thread

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NarrowBandFtw said:
sure, no problem with that, BUT:

then stop repeating this fake news as well
No scenario whatsoever? Really? They can't make deals with countries they've been legally blocked from doing before? It won't have ANY impact on their finances?

A vastly rich alien species can't choose to enrich the UK due to its newfound independence when they land on this planet? They can't suddenly strike gold / oil / gas deposits?

You can say the probability is low if you wish, but every time you repeat the lie that there is "no scenario" that they can be better off you're just repeating fake news yourself.
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They will become free to make trade deals with such powerhouses as South Africa and Angola. Whoop te doo. While trade with the EU becomes significantly more complicated due to Brexit. Still think its a good idea?

Let's put it this way. Businesses such as the banks have whole teams of economists, planners and strategists working for them. Very smart people with PhDs, and their job is to predict what Brexit will mean for those firms and what they should do about it. If any of them thought Brexit would be positive, then they would have stayed in the UK and in fact increased their investment. But a lot of them have left the UK because they think it will be negative.

Think about it - all of these businesses are not going to listen to what the government says. They will do their own research, their own planning, their own forecasting, and a lot of them came to the conclusion that this is the time for them to go.

Now why would they do that if there was the possibility of an upside? Are you saying you know better than these very smart people working for a lot of major banks? All of them?
 
Ancalagon said:
They will become free to make trade deals with such powerhouses as South Africa and Angola
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and USA / China / Russia / India, you'e aware that they currently can't do ANY of that without following EU rules right?

I'm saying any idiot can tell that there is more than a zero percent probability that the UK becomes financially stronger than before, even if it is 0.0000000000000000001% it is more than 0, and if all these "smart banksters" say it is zero then they are lying, plain and simple.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
and USA / China / Russia / India, you'e aware that they currently can't do ANY of that without following EU rules right?

I'm saying any idiot can tell that there is more than a zero percent probability that the UK becomes financially stronger than before, even if it is 0.0000000000000000001% it is more than 0, and if all these "smart banksters" say it is zero then they are lying, plain and simple.
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So the UK doesn't trade with the USA right now? Or China or Russia? Do you believe what is coming out of your mouth?

So the smart bankers, who GET PAID to be smart and do research, are lying? Okay.
 
Ancalagon said:
Sure, but then don't say that news that Brexit will cause financial hardship for the UK is fake news. It is true. There is no scenario in which the UK's finances will be better off than they were before. At best, they might get to the same position if they join the EEA instead. And if they do that, they are subject to a lot of EU rules with no say in them, which seems pointless to me.
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Well as an economist, I know most economic predications aren't really worth the paper they're written on. There is a common joke in the economics profession that economists 'predicted the last 9 of the 4 recessions'. One thing about economic models is they have many assumptions (which are needed) to model the future. It's unclear to me whether these assumptions are realistic or not. Just because many economic models are backed by fancy, sometimes esoteric mathematics, doesn't necessairily mean they are correct. Also one of the Bank of England or Treasury forecasts came out last week made predictions until 2030. Lol. That's just purely nonsense. Most economists can hardly predict the next quarter growth in GDP and now I'm supposed to take seriously modelling 12 years into the future? No...that's not going to fly.

Personally I like EFTA (which the UK was originally part of) as a temporary arrangement for the immediate period after March 2019 while something else (better) is thrashed out. It at least gives the UK the ability to negotiate third-country trade deals. You don't have to be part of the EEA if you are part of EFTA, as Switzerland shows. Also the EFTA countries are at least exempt from some of the provisions of EU law.

Whilst the EFTA is not a customs union and member states have full rights to enter into bilateral third-country trade arrangements, it does have a coordinated trade policy
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They adopt almost all EU legislation related to the single market, except laws on agriculture and fisheries .
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One EFTA member, Switzerland, has not joined the EEA but has a series of bilateral agreements, including a free trade agreement, with the EU.
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Excellent writing from Johnny Mercer, ex-Army (who voted Remain but who is not trying to overturn the referendum result unlike the disgraceful swarmy lawyer):

And I ask that not mockingly, but with a genuine desire to hear the answer. I, like many colleagues, react badly to the Party’s decision to try and strong-arm me into voting for this deal. The idea that a group of senior people in our Party who lost a 21 point lead in a self-indulgent general election – to Jeremy Corbyn – are advising me to now listen to my constituents, having singularly failed to do that themselves ever since David Cameron left office, is genuinely amusing. The arrogance of failing to answer the question – what is “Plan B”? – as part of a suite of unthinkable threats including a general election, no Brexit, or a no deal catastrophe, actually push me away from supporting this particular deal. The clear deception of red lines crossed without acknowledgement, and the idea of the UK being a junior partner in a relationship that we cannot unilaterally leave, leaves agnostics like me are looking for an alternative.
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https://www.conservativehome.com/pl...week-but-im-asking-them-for-a-vision-now.html
 
Ancalagon said:
So the UK doesn't trade with the USA right now? Or China or Russia? Do you believe what is coming out of your mouth?

So the smart bankers, who GET PAID to be smart and do research, are lying? Okay.
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They don't trade with any of those countries without EU rules being applied, no.

Are you honestly not aware of that?!?

You may also consider that people get paid to lie as well, intelligence has nothing to do with it.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
They don't trade with any of those countries without EU rules being applied, no.

Are you honestly not aware of that?!?

You may also consider that people get paid to lie as well, intelligence has nothing to do with it.
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The super onerous EU rules that apparently the UK is copying word for word into its own rulebook.

So if I'm the CEO of a bank with shareholders to report to, and my own bonus depends on the shares of my bank going UP and not down, I'm going to pay an economist to fake a report on Brexit because... reasons?

Why would a bank do something against its own interests? After, the big corporates care about money more than anything else. They don't care about Brexit or anything else, they just want more money. Never underestimate the power of greed.
 
Ancalagon said:
The super onerous EU rules that apparently the UK is copying word for word into its own rulebook.
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My apologies, I thought my incessant opposition to how brexit is being "realised" would have been enough of a hint that I do not endorse May's plan in any way shape or form, I'm talking about a true brexit, not a fake one.

And it is the Tory government with the vested interest in never going through with Brexit fyi, it is THEY who paid for multiple anti Brexit "research" efforts.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
My apologies, I thought my incessant opposition to how brexit is being "realised" would have been enough of a hint that I do not endorse May's plan in any way shape or form, I'm talking about a true brexit, not a fake one.

And it is the Tory government with the vested interest in never going through with Brexit fyi, it is THEY who paid for multiple anti Brexit "research" efforts.
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Okay but what about the banks? Did the banks pay for fake research that could hurt their own bottom lines?
 
Ancalagon said:
Okay but what about the banks? Did the banks pay for fake research that could hurt their own bottom lines?
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Wouldn't be surprised in the least. Remember all the negative press is still aimed at stopping brexit, temporary fluctuations in share price is nothing compared to the prize of not having brexit at all.

Banks won't need to pay for relocation costs, massive recruitment in new countries, worry about new tax legislation etc etc etc. Financially they come out ahead if they can stay right where they are and not have brexit.
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
The WW3 comment actually relates to the ex Prime Minister, David Cameron, saying leaving the EU will risk Europe "descending into war". So maybe not WW3 but the thrust of the quote is correct. Hardly a "lie".
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This is what he actually said

"Whenever we turn our back on Europe, sooner or later we come to regret it. We have always had to go back in, and always at much higher cost,
The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price this country has paid to help restore peace and order in Europe.
Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption.
It has barely been twenty years since war in the Balkans and genocide in Srebrenica, and Russia's invasion of Georgia and Ukraine.
Of this I am completely sure, the European Union has helped reconcile countries which were at each others’ throats for decades.
And that requires British leadership, and for Britain to remain a member. The truth is this: what happens in our neighbourhood matters to Britain.
Either we influence Europe, or it influences us. And if things go wrong in Europe, let’s not pretend we can be immune from the consequences."
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I think the underlined is rather true and the whole paragraph in context is hardly world war 3 like your fake news bus claimed.
 
One of the main points made by the leave campaign was that power should rest with Parliament. Now they whine because Parliament is exercising its authority. Remember that this Parliament was elected AFTER the referendum, therefore it represents a more updated view of the will of the people.

No democratic decision is ever final. Its final up to the next Parliament. The election of Parliament carries more legal authority than any referendum ever will. There is always another election in 5 years if people want to to change their minds. :)
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
No, they whine because parliament is outsourcing its authority, to the EU.
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Parliament has the right to that.

If the voters dont agree then they can change the Parliament.

The MP's that where voted in during the recent election where effectively given the mandate to do exactly that.

There's another election in 2022. Voters can change their minds then. Of course the current govt can always call an early general election and then see what the voters want :) Do the Tories have the balls ? :)
 
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