The Brexit Thread

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Brexit anxiety drags UK economy almost to standstill

Economists said that GDP growth in the final quarter would plunge to 0.1%.

Brexit anxiety dragged the UK economy almost to a standstill at the end of 2018, as a key gauge for the largest sector of the economy showed optimism among firms fell to the lowest levels since the financial crisis.

According to the latest snapshot for the services sector compiled by IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply – which covers banks, restaurants and hotels – subdued growth conditions persisted in December, with concerns over the UK’s departure from the EU resulting in companies putting spending decisions on hold.

In an early warning sign that GDP growth almost certainly stalled in the final three months of 2018, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed lower demand from cash-strapped consumers also acted as a brake on sale.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-harder-would-be-irresponsible-politics-live

Looks like Parliament has just cut May (and any chance of a no deal exit) off at the knees.

No deal Brexit now means the government loses the power to amend taxation relating to the EU by regulation.

This was what the 2019 Finance Act said:

Minor amendments in consequence of EU withdrawal
89
(6)
(1) The Treasury may by regulations make such provision as they consider appropriate—
(a) for the purpose of maintaining the effect of any relevant tax legislation 25 on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU (and, accordingly, on the United Kingdom ceasing to be an EEA state);
(b) for the purposes of any relevant tax, in connection with any provision
made by regulations under section 8 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (power to remedy deficiencies); 30
(c) in connection with any reference in relevant tax legislation to euros;
(d) amending paragraph 2(4) of Schedule 5 to FA 1997 (indirect taxes: overpayments etc) for the purposes of removing the reference to EU
legislation;
(e) amending section 173 of FA 2006 (international tax enforcement) to 35
permit the disclosure of information to the Commissioners by other public authorities and by the Commissioners (subject to conditions about its use) to persons outside the United Kingdom.
(2) The regulations may—
(a) amend any enactment; 40
(b) contain incidental, transitional or saving provision;
(c) make different provision for different purposes.

(3)
Where—
(a) regulations under this section are made after exit day, and
(b) a provision of the regulations is made by virtue of any of paragraphs (a) to (d) of subsection (1),
the regulations may provide that the provision has effect from exit day. 5 Regulations under this section are to be made by statutory instrument.
A statutory instrument containing regulations under this section is subject to annulment in pursuance of a resolution of the House of Commons.
In this section—
“the Commissioners” means the Commissioners for Her Majesty’s 10 Revenue and Customs;
“enactment” includes an enactment comprised in subordinate legislation; “relevant tax” means any tax (including stamp duty) except—
(a) value added tax,
(b) any duty of customs, or 15
(c) any excise duty under the Alcoholic Liquor Duties Act 1979, the Hydrocarbon Oil Duties Act 1979 or the Tobacco Products Duty Act 1979;
“relevant tax legislation” means any enactment relating to a relevant tax.
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After tonight’s vote the following has been added by MP’s.

2ADAAAB6-872F-4445-83E1-356A1F3B6CB9.jpeg

And May was worrying about next weeks vote...
 
Dave said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-harder-would-be-irresponsible-politics-live

Looks like Parliament has just cut May (and any chance of a no deal exit) off at the knees.

No deal Brexit now means the government loses the power to amend taxation relating to the EU by regulation.

This was what the 2019 Finance Act said:



After tonight’s vote the following has been added by MP’s.



And May was worrying about next weeks vote...
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Hmm, what am I missing? That last sentence in the amendment seems to make a "no deal" Brexit while retaining the power to amend taxation possible, subject to House of Commons approval.

But the bigger point perhaps - a "no deal" Brexit can't be off the cards (by definition) - that's what will happen, unless May's agreement passes or they get an extension on Article 50 from the EU.
 
OrbitalDawn said:
Hmm, what am I missing? That last sentence in the amendment seems to make a "no deal" Brexit while retaining the power to amend taxation possible, subject to House of Commons approval.

But the bigger point perhaps - a "no deal" Brexit can't be off the cards (by definition) - that's what will happen, unless May's agreement passes or they get an extension on Article 50 from the EU.
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Parliament has said they don’t want a no deal exit, and so if May loses the vote on her deal next week it’ll have to be an extension to Art 50 or a vote in Parliament to enact those sections of the Finance Act.

If May were to still allow no deal to simply happen then the government loses the ability to use statutory instruments to change any part of taxation law relating to brexit, everything would have to be approved by a parliamentary vote.

It’s almost a diluted partial version of the current shutdown in the USA, where the govt would need parliamentary approval for each and every taxation change relating to the exit.
 
Dave said:
Parliament has said they don’t want a no deal exit, and so if May loses the vote on her deal next week it’ll have to be an extension to Art 50 or a vote in Parliament to enact those sections of the Finance Act.

If May were to still allow no deal to simply happen then the government loses the ability to use statutory instruments to change any part of taxation law relating to brexit, everything would have to be approved by a parliamentary vote.

It’s almost a diluted partial version of the current shutdown in the USA, where the govt would need parliamentary approval for each and every taxation change relating to the exit.
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Has the EU indicated their stance on extending Article 50 anywhere?

The Brexit Secretary (for now anyway, lol) said they're not extending (which can change, of course), and also that he hasn't even spoken to the EU about it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ules-out-article-50-extension-beyond-29-march
 
Dave said:
If May were to still allow no deal to simply happen then the government loses the ability to use statutory instruments to change any part of taxation law relating to brexit, everything would have to be approved by a parliamentary vote.
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Just as parliament has introduced this toothless rule, it can remove it, don't see any real threat from it other than a "bluff" in the hope that it prevents hard brexit.

If hard brexit has already happened the bluff loses all the value it had, parliament would know that and need to worry about the practical implementation of their toothless rule. Should be short lived, if it lives at all, imo.
 
Poor old Theresa May gets another kicking in parliament, no hoping to just let the clock wind down if she loses her vote now.

Brexit: MPs vote 308-297 in favour of amendment for three-day 'plan B' deadline - Politics live

As a result of an amendment proposed by Dominic Grieve in December, and passed by MPs, that motion will be amendable. In other words, MPs will be able to put forward their alternative ‘plan B’. (Or, I suppose, if the government proposes ‘plan B’ in its motion, MPs can table amendments with ‘plan C’ etc.)

Today’s amendment just accelerates that process. If May loses the vote on Tuesday, she will have to hold the ‘plan B’ vote within three sitting days – ie by Monday week.

Arguably the government would have moved forward quickly anyway. That is what Downing Street is saying now. (See 2.06pm.) But although Theresa May was probably planning a statement to the Commons soon after any potential defeat on Tuesday (ie, she would not have waited 21 days anyway), there is no evidence that she was planning a vote anytime soon. Given her reluctance generally to allow MPs a say on this process, it is likely that she would have delayed that vote – not least because that might have given her a few weeks to secure extra concessions from Brussels.

Now, at most, she will have six days to extract meaningful concessions from Brussels. The passing of the Grieve amendment just now will probably prevent prolonged haggling with the EU about May’s deal, and hasten the moment when the Commons and the government have to contemplate an alternative approach.

Quite what might happen at that point, though, remains anyone’s guess ...
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https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-5c3601bce4b0cebe76182e1c#liveblog-navigation

Some old faces appearing to twist the knife as well.

00AEF368-8821-475B-A3E5-AC2883B89664.jpeg
 
'Secret' £75m Brexit contracts facing investigation

The government has quietly awarded £75m of Brexit-related contracts to some of the world’s biggest consultancy firms, Sky News can reveal.

The deals, uncovered today for the first time, were never publicly announced.

They were given to nine high-profile international companies, including familiar names such as Deloitte, Accenture and PwC.

Each company received a contract worth between £5m and £10m.

Three of the contracts - together worth £25m - went to the American firms Bain, McKinsey and Boston Consulting.

All nine agreements are described as contracts for "the supply of Cabinet Office consultancy support for EU Exit".
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Remain-Supporting MPs Think They Can Stop A No-Deal Brexit. But Can They?

But while the MPs who oppose a no-deal Brexit are winning votes in the Commons, leaving the EU without a deal on March 29 remains the default position if Thereas May’s proposed deal is voted down and the UK fails to come up with an alternative plan in time.

Senior Remain-supporting Tory MPs, government officials, Labour sources, and Commons experts agree that the options for blocking no deal are limited.

Following Wednesday’s vote on the Grieve amendment, Chris White, a former Conservative special adviser who was responsible for managing the government’s legislative programme, said that unless the government decides otherwise, the UK remains on course to leave the EU on March 29 with or without a deal.
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Also a good description of Dominic "Grievance", courtesy of the Speccie's comment section:

Grieve passes himself off as some intensely intellectual, yet deeply principled, figure - reluctantly in the spot-light, tortured by his earnest conscience.

In truth, he's a vulgar narcissist, in hock to the EU, and a worshipper of their judicial power. A true Quisling - or rather, Laval. His entire parliamentary career has been devoted to making Westminster a parish council - and now he poses, unchallenged by a credulous media, as some defender of Westminster.
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:laugh:
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
Also a good description of Dominic "Grievance", courtesy of the Speccie's comment section:

:laugh:
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Grieve has been Attorney General for England and Wales and Advocate General of Northern Ireland so it takes a special kind of stupid to insinuate he wants Westminster to be (or has been treating it as) a parish council...
 
Source: EU preparing to delay Brexit until at least July
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.

The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.

A special leaders’ summit to push back Brexit day is expected to be convened by the European council president, Donald Tusk, once a UK request is received. EU officials said the length of the prolongation of the negotiating period allowed under article 50 would be determined based on the reason put forward by May for the delay.
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Basically broadcasting to the entire world the EU is more scared of a hard brexit than Britain, pity nobody is paying attention.
 
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LOL

Voted against enacting the result of a referendum, whatever next? :laugh:

The prime minister has re-written a speech about Brexit following criticism it was factually inaccurate.

Theresa May had planned to say that both sides had accepted the result of the Welsh assembly referendum in 1997.

But she had voted against the creation of the institution following the devolution referendum.

Labour and Plaid Cymru politicians accused her of hypocrisy - and the line was dropped from the speech.

Members of the press had been told Mrs May, in Stoke-on-Trent, would say: "When the people of Wales voted by a margin of 0.3%, on a turnout of just over 50%, to endorse the creation of the Welsh Assembly, that result was accepted by both sides and the popular legitimacy of that institution has never seriously been questioned."

But when she gave the speech, she said that the result "was accepted by parliament".

Mrs May had, in 1997 after the referendum, voted against the legislation that enacted the assembly, together with other Conservatives.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-46863044
 
OrbitalDawn said:
Uh, no. It's because May's deal won't pass. Says so right there.
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/facepalm

Do you take everything at face value or just the things that support your own bias? Why does the EU care if May's deal does not pass? It means hard brexit becomes the default position, THAT is what the EU is scared of, more so than the UK. For all their threats and chest thumping the EU cannot have their bluff called.

If the UK had competent negotiators they would have seen and exploited this fact by now, alas, competence is not what they have in this case.
 
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