The Brexit Thread

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#name? said:
So now the deadline to leave is April since the deal failed, but would've been May if it passed? Why? The other way around makes more sense to me.
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So May in April instead of May without or without May, though May wanted May in June or maybe July? May God help us all!

Edit: though not May, she can't help anyone...
 
Verde said:
Developed economies don't go into death spirals, they are amazingly adaptive because they are diversified in ways we can't quantify or understand. You are going out on a limb with your dire predictions.

So even if the worst (ridiculous) Brexit predictions come true, Britain will be able to arrest the decline by rejoining.

In this sense Brexit is like a call option - you pay a price and get a chance to earn a low probability but unlimited leveraged upside.
It's not a great investment strategy, you are likely to lose a bit each round. If you follow it long term the expected outcome is indeed dire. But at least after each try you get to reconsider if you want to take another plunge.

It is normal to make mistakes, but unwise to bet on a great economy like Britain’s to not learn from mistakes.
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Quoting this for posterity or "I told you so"s.

There are bigger and better islands - I'm afraid the sun has finally set on the British Empire.
 
Dave said:
There’s only one island that people could try and argue was bigger and better...
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And it's a set for Game of Thrones!

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There are bigger and better islands - I'm afraid the sun has finally set on the British Empire.[/QUOTE]

In that case lets be clear - what are you predicting.
I say Britain will not be on its optimal path if it leaves the EU:
Soft Brexit ie. free trade with EU- I say they will grow 2% less than EU in total over next 5 years +-.4% per year.
Hard Brexit +- 3% less so +-.6% less pa.

You say the sun is setting, what does this mean in terms of lost economic growth, sounds like negative growth. How much?

And please understand I think Brexit is a mistake economically, but much more politically.
 
Verde said:
There are bigger and better islands - I'm afraid the sun has finally set on the British Empire.
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In that case lets be clear - what are you predicting.
I say Britain will not be on its optimal path if it leaves the EU:
Soft Brexit ie. free trade with EU- I say they will grow 2% less than EU in total over next 5 years +-.4% per year.
Hard Brexit +- 3% less so +-.6% less pa.

You say the sun is setting, what does this mean in terms of lost economic growth, sounds like negative growth. How much?

And please understand I think Brexit is a mistake economically, but much more politically.
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So long. And thanks for all the fish!
 
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#name? said:
So now the deadline to leave is April since the deal failed, but would've been May if it passed? Why? The other way around makes more sense to me.
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It has to do with the European Parliament elections that happen on May 23 - if the deal had passed then the UK would have until then to get everything arranged, and wouldn't be taking part in the elections. Since the deal failed it's not clear if they will still be in the EU for the elections or not. April 12 is the deadline for the UK to decide whether to hold European Parliament elections or not (under EU law) so now this becomes the Brexit deadline - clarity is required.

Donald Tusk said that unless the UK decides to take part in the elections by this time, “the option of a long extension will automatically become impossible”.
 
The European project has far bigger problems than Brexit

EU leaders have entirely failed to solve any of the structural problems that led to the Eurozone crisis.

As surprising as it may seem to British commentators caught up in their own psychodrama, Brexit is not the main issue keeping European leaders awake at night. A stagnant economy, the rise of China, and the huge divides between member states on how to deal with these issues are at the top of most EU leaders’ minds.

The Eurozone, having entirely failed to solve any of the structural problems that led to the 2011 debt crisis, is now teetering on the edge of recession. Industrial production in Germany – the powerhouse of the bloc – slowed more sharply than expected in January. Italy has already fallen into recession, partly due to the deflationary economic policy forced on it by Brussels – and its ailing banks may yet be the source of another debt crisis. Economic confidence in the Eurozone has fallen for the ninth month in a row and has now reached its lowest level since 2013.

In this context, Brexit is simply adding insult to injury. The departure of the UK without a deal would harm manufacturers across the continent. With deflationary fiscal policy now institutionalised, the European Central Bank concluding its quantitative easing programme, and productivity outstripping wage growth across much of the bloc, the Eurozone’s current account surplus has been the crutch supporting demand over the last several years. The threat of tariffs on trade with the UK could tip the already weak Eurozone economies over the edge.

Who will pick up the tab for economic stimulus, financial stability and industrial strategy – northern European states, big business, or southern Europe’s impoverished citizens?

Who makes policy – unelected bureaucrats, the European parliament, or member states? And who will determine the future of the bloc should the UK leave – Germany, France, or Brussels?

Europe’s leaders are no closer to answering any of these questions today than they were a decade ago when this crisis began. If they cannot provide answers soon, events might just overtake them. Every minute EU leaders waste brings the European project one step closer to collapse.
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https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2019/03/european-project-has-far-bigger-problems-brexit
 
phaktza said:
... And pickled shark. Yum.

Edit: and besides Iceland has already beat England at their own game!
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Geez, I remember that upset, it’s almost in the same league as Japan beating springboks at the rugby World Cup.
 
phaktza said:
Let's disregard natural gas and oil since Scotland will soon be part of the EU.
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No they won't be, they had their referendum already and chose wrong, they won't be getting another shot any time soon.

phaktza said:
Let's reflect that Britain produced 13 million tonnes of coal in 2013
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You said no natural resources, which is a blatant lie. How much they have compared to China is entirely irrelevant, nobody's claiming the UK can become a giant resource economy, but someone did claim they have no resources, none ...
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
No they won't be, they had their referendum already and chose wrong, they won't be getting another shot any time soon.


You said no natural resources, which is a blatant lie. How much they have compared to China is entirely irrelevant, nobody's claiming the UK can become a giant resource economy, but someone did claim they have no resources, none ...
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In the context, yes they have no natural resources to speak of... And Scotland is already pushing for another referendum.
 
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