Boris Johnson’s only way out of this crisis is to resign
Jo Johnson’s
resignation may not have much practical effect, but it is symbolic, and it dramatises his brother’s problem.
The prime minister cannot have an early election, because Labour MPs refuse to vote for it. He won’t ask for a
Brexitextension, as required to do by the backbench bill that will be law by Monday. It looks as if he will have to resign.
Boris Johnson could even announce his intention to resign – as prime minister but not as leader of the Conservative Party – on Monday. He would have to do it anyway by 19 October, which is the
date set in Hilary Benn’s bill by which whoever is prime minister would have to sign a letter to Donald Tusk, the EU president, asking for an extension to the Article 50 period.
But what is the point of waiting? Once Benn’s bill becomes law on Monday, the prime minister is trapped.
As he said in the Commons yesterday, “it is a Bill that effectively ends the negotiations.” There is not much more for him to talk about with the EU, because the other EU leaders know that we won’t be leaving without a deal on 31 October.
Johnson could spend the next five weeks just being prime minister, without parliament to bother him, but on borrowed time. He could attend the EU summit on 17-18 October, but with nothing substantive to say.
Whenever he chooses to announce his resignation, his only alternative would seem to be to eat not just his words but his pride and any semblance of credibility with Leave voters.
No one knows what will happen if Johnson announced his resignation. He would, presumably, refuse to advise the Queen as to whom she should invite to form a government instead. We would be in the unlikely territory of the House of Commons having to try to unite behind someone as temporary prime minister.
This caretaker figure would be charged with writing the “Dear Donald” letter that Johnson refuses to write, and then presiding over an election – after 31 October.
But who would it be? Jo Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrat’s (now 16 strong), doesn’t want Jeremy Corbyn; and it’s hard to see Corbyn acquiescing in Kenneth Clarke, now an independent Conservative.
I have argued beforethat Clarke has more implied support in the Commons than Corbyn has.
Unlikely as it may seem, Clarke could be a short-term prime minister rather soon, before a general election in November or December.