The Brexit Thread

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Dave123 said:
I would make the point that the Euro =/= the EU.
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You think that if the Euro dies, the EU will stay together when all the countries start fighting over who owes what to whom? :erm:
 
Xarog said:
You think that if the Euro dies, the EU will stay together when all the countries start fighting over who owes what to whom? :erm:
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Not all of the EU uses the Euro, it might cause problems if the Euro was terminated but I don't think it alone would kill the EU. Even the far right in Italy and France want to kill the Euro but neither have said they want to leave the EU.
 
Dave123 said:
Not all of the EU uses the Euro, it might cause problems if the Euro was terminated but I don't think it alone would kill the EU. Even the far right in Italy and France want to kill the Euro but neither have said they want to leave the EU.
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If you trigger a collapse of the Euro, then all the debts that have been accrued in Euros have to be redemoninated in other currencies. Which currencies those debts are denominated in will ultimately determine who is on the line for those debts.

Not so?

Just think of the political tension that will cause within the EU given the way Germany has been using the Euro to build up a massive trade surplus. I just cannot see how the Euro going down doesn't take the EU with it.
 
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Xarog said:
If you trigger a collapse of the Euro, then all the debts that have been accrued in Euros have to be redemoninated in other currencies. Which currencies those debts are denominated in will ultimately determine who is on the line for those debts.

Not so?

Just think of the political tension that will cause within the EU given the way Germany has been using the Euro to build up a massive trade surplus. I just cannot see how the Euro going down doesn't take the EU with it.
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It wouldn't require a collapse for the Euro to be killed, the main players could reinstate national currencies that are initially pegged at 1:1 with each other.

It's the way the French right are talking, a return to the Franc which initially is pegged at 1 Franc to €1. Market forces will then move currencies over time against each other.
 
Dave123 said:
It wouldn't require a collapse for the Euro to be killed, the main players could reinstate national currencies that are initially pegged at 1:1 with each other.

It's the way the French right are talking, a return to the Franc which initially is pegged at 1 Franc to €1. Market forces will then move currencies over time against each other.
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:confused:

I never said it would require a collapse for the Euro to be killed. I said that the Euro dying will cause the collapse of the EU.
 
Xarog said:
:confused:

I never said it would require a collapse for the Euro to be killed. I said that the Euro dying will cause the collapse of the EU.
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And I said it's not a forgone conclusion, the euro could go and the EU could survive. It might even become the currency in the German sphere of influence with the other big EU countries reverting to national currency but still in the EU.
 
Dave123 said:
And I said it's not a forgone conclusion, the euro could go and the EU could survive. It might even become the currency in the German sphere of influence with the other big EU countries reverting to national currency but still in the EU.
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I'm asking you to explain how you think the Euro bond problem will be solved between the countries so that the Euro could collapse without it taking the EU with it, given the fact that the new denominations of debt will determine which country is ultimately liable for that debt.

In other words, when the Euro goes, what positions will the PIIGS take with respect to Germany?

You keep dodging this question, and your refusal to answer makes my point.
 
I'm not trying to save the economies of Europe, just making the point the EU could survive the demise of the Euro, the EU is more than just finances. Conversely the EU could fragment and fall apart even with a successful Euro.

The EU existed prior to the Euro, parts of the EU are still outside the Euro, don't try and make a hard comparison that they are the same thing.
 
Dave123 said:
It wouldn't require a collapse for the Euro to be killed, the main players could reinstate national currencies that are initially pegged at 1:1 with each other.

It's the way the French right are talking, a return to the Franc which initially is pegged at 1 Franc to €1. Market forces will then move currencies over time against each other.
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Extreme right, extreme which is a major difference. They have never presented a viable programme.
 
:crylaugh: Blair testing the waters to find out exactly how irrelevant he's become ...
[video=youtube;EgxRxlSITOo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgxRxlSITOo[/video]
 
http://news.sky.com/story/it-will-t...u-migrant-jobs-says-brexit-secretary-10777345

It will take "years and years" before British workers are ready to fill the low-skilled jobs left by EU migrants, Brexit Secretary David Davis has conceded.

He said the UK was not about to "suddenly shut the door" on low-skilled EU migrants because UK nationals were not likely to take up the low-paid jobs in care, farming or hotels and restaurants for some time.

Mr Davis' comments, made during a visit to Estonia, will raise questions over Theresa May's pledge to use Brexit to take back control of immigration and reduce net migration to the tens of thousands.
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U.K. Farmers Say `Food Will Rot' in Fields Without EU Labor

The U.K. agriculture industry will come to a standstill if the government doesn’t reach a deal that guarantees access to European workers, according to the head of Britain’s farming union.

“Without a workforce –- permanent and seasonal -- it wouldn’t matter what a new trade deal looks like,” Meurig Raymond, president of the National Farmers Union, said at a conference in Birmingham, England. “The lights would go out in our biggest manufacturing sector, food will rot in the fields and Britain will lose the ability to produce and process its own food. That is not what a successful Brexit looks like.”

Farmers are lobbying for a deal that allows unrestricted access to the European market and its laborers as lawmakers grapple with how to leave the European Union. About 22,000 workers from the EU were employed in British agriculture in 2015, about 20 percent of the industry’s workforce, according to a report from the U.K.’s farming development board.

The U.K. government is committed to guaranteeing rights to all EU workers in Britain, as long as the benefits are extended to British workers in the bloc, Environment Secretary Andrea Leadsom said at the conference on Tuesday.
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Government defeated on Brexit bill

The government has been defeated after the House of Lords said ministers should guarantee EU nationals' right to stay in the UK after Brexit.

The vote, by 358 to 256, is the first Parliamentary defeat for the government's Brexit bill.

However, MPs will be able to remove their changes when the bill returns to the House of Commons.

Ministers say the issue is a priority but must be part of a deal protecting UK expats overseas.

The bill will give Theresa May the authority to trigger Brexit under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and begin official negotiations.

The amendment backed by the Lords requires the government to introduce proposals within three months of Article 50 to ensure EU citizens in the UK have the same residence rights after Brexit.

But it could be overturned when MPs, who have already backed the Brexit bill without amendments, vote on it again.
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Source: U.K. May Be Set for Early Clash Over Brexit Costs
U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government looks set for an early clash with European Union leaders over the terms of Brexit as a report suggested it can leave the bloc without paying a financial settlement.

The Times newspaper on Saturday said government lawyers concluded there is no law or treaty to compel the U.K. to pay the bill EU officials have estimated at about 60 billion euros ($64 billion). That echoed a newly published finding of a House of Lords committee.
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I'll be the biggest Theresa May fan on the planet if she tells the EU to get bent :D
 
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