The Brexit Thread

[NarrowBandFtw]

You're forgetting that the German economy is well balanced and can weather one sector taking a hit. The UK losing its status as the world's financial centre is going to hurt them far more.

Hypothetical German auto hit vs hypothetical UK financial hit though, if they all have some sense neither will come to pass.

While the Germans may weather such a hit fine on paper, like I said, that industry is sacrosanct. We're talking about an industry that got the government to pay people billions in incentives to scrap relatively new cars in order to buy brand new cars, Germany may survive a hit to their car industry, Merkel's career won't.

 

[access]

Brexit about to trigger sky-high costs for British food industry

erm, i dont know when last you were in a british supermarket/store, but the foods are labelled from multiple different countries, not just the eu ones. guess what, they are all similarly priced.

if the eu punishes the uk over this, those foods on the shelves labelled to the eu countries will become less and food from the other countries more, that is all.

 

[f2wohf]

erm, i dont know when last you were in a british supermarket/store, but the foods are labelled from multiple different countries, not just the eu ones. guess what, they are all similarly priced.

if the eu punishes the uk over this, those foods on the shelves labelled to the eu countries will become less and food from the other countries more, that is all.

Did it cross your mind that these other countries have trade agreements with the EU. So that they're imported under a trade agreement limiting tariffs and taxes.

Once the Brexit is done, the UK will basically have no trade agreement with the EU, but also with nobody else in the world.

The best part is that even with third parties, they can start negotiating only once they are out of the EU.

 

[Pitbull]

Did it cross your mind that these other countries have trade agreements with the EU. So that they're imported under a trade agreement limiting tariffs and taxes.

Once the Brexit is done, the UK will basically have no trade agreement with the EU, but also with nobody else in the world.

The best part is that even with third parties, they can start negotiating only once they are out of the EU.

Only if they want to. They can easily have discussions just about finalised before the break up by under the table negotiations. It's nothing but a smoke screen the EU keeps pushing

 

[f2wohf]

Only if they want to. They can easily have discussions just about finalised before the break up by under the table negotiations. It's nothing but a smoke screen the EU keeps pushing

The third party would be in violation of its own treaty with the EU. The UK could be called to the ECJ on the other side. Who really wants to try that ?

Anyway, even if they started right now, 3 years is probably the Olympic record in terms of trade agreements. More like 5.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Anyway, even if they started right now, 3 years is probably the Olympic record in terms of trade agreements. More like 5.

And? Trade does not necessarily require trade agreements ... it would also be pretty easy for the UK to just mention to 3rd parties: "hey let's start off with our existing trade agreement on day one, just find/replace 'EU' with 'UK', then negotiate better terms for us both immediately"

 

[Pitbull]

The third party would be in violation of its own treaty with the EU. The UK could be called to the ECJ on the other side. Who really wants to try that ?

Anyway, even if they started right now, 3 years is probably the Olympic record in terms of trade agreements. More like 5.

Third party this, 3rd party that...

No-one really bothers with the EU no more. South Africa has openly stated it will trade with the UK directly. The US has too. I'm pretty sure officials can/will discuss this way before the Brexit deadline and only conclude the deals on the day or the day of the exit. The above example is but two countries...

 

[f2wohf]

Third party this, 3rd party that...

No-one really bothers with the EU no more. South Africa has openly stated it will trade with the UK directly. The US has too. I'm pretty sure officials can/will discuss this way before the Brexit deadline and only conclude the deals on the day or the day of the exit. The above example is but two countries...

Everybody will trade with the U.K., I don't know where you get that conception that trade will stop.

Even North Korea trades.

The main interrogation is when will UK have new trade agreements to avoid GAAT tariffs which are a nightmare.

For the message before, it's not as simple... Why doesn't May write it on a napkin also ?

Have a look there https://www.thedti.gov.za/trade_investment/trade.jsp

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

For the message before, it's not as simple...

It IS that simple, global trade has been thriving much longer than worthless bureaucracies even existed. Just because one silly mess of red tape chooses to strangle itself by it, doesn't mean anyone else needs to.

 

[f2wohf]

It IS that simple, global trade has been thriving much longer than worthless bureaucracies even existed. Just because one silly mess of red tape chooses to strangle itself by it, doesn't mean anyone else needs to.

UK can start the movement of trading at reduce prices without agreement.

Good luck with that, even though I'm all for it.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Everybody will trade with the U.K., I don't know where you get that conception that trade will stop.

Even North Korea trades.

The main interrogation is when will UK have new trade agreements to avoid GAAT tariffs which are a nightmare.

For the message before, it's not as simple... Why doesn't May write it on a napkin also ?

Have a look there https://www.thedti.gov.za/trade_investment/trade.jsp

lol, they're living in lala land. The EU already has free trade agreements in place with something like 38 countries (including SA) and many more already signed but not in force yet and many more already being negotiated.

The idea that the UK will just be able to sign agreements left, right and centre at a rate of knots is delusional.

 

[The_Assimilator]

And? Trade does not necessarily require trade agreements ... it would also be pretty easy for the UK to just mention to 3rd parties: "hey let's start off with our existing trade agreement on day one, just find/replace 'EU' with 'UK', then negotiate better terms for us both immediately"

You don't understand how any of this works, do you?

The size of the EU gives it more bargaining power overall than its individual member states. That means the EU can and has negotiated trade agreements that are better for its members than any of them could obtain individually. That includes the UK.

Approximately 50% of the UK's exports go to EU countries (source - 54.3% to European countries, but Switzerland at 4.6% is not an EU member.) Nearly 15% goes to the USA, more than 6% to China and Hong Kong.

That's a total of 70% of all the UK's exports going to trading blocs or countries that the UK needs far more than they need it - so it makes ZERO financial sense for them to allow the UK to continue trading at the current EU rate. They will lose a little in the short term if they play hardball by refusing UK imports unless/until the UK renegotiates its trade agreements, but the UK will lose a hell of a lot more.

I can tell you that those countries and blocs are already drawing up new trade agreements in anticipation of Brexit, and that they will drop them on the UK like a ton of bricks the day after it leaves the EU, and they won't take no for an answer. In fact I would be entirely unsurprised if the EU (which is almost certainly going to tell the UK to get f**ked out of principle) isn't negotiating with the UK's other large trading partners to ensure a united front to that end.

Putting my tinfoil hat on, it's even possible that these trade partners make an agreement to flat out refuse UK exports regardless of what the UK is willing to negotiate, in order to drive the UK economy into depression and drop the value of the sterling even further.

Hoo boy, it's gonna be fun times when the UK tries to get back into the EU a decade or so down the line, because Brussels is gonna be holding all the cards and it sure as hell won't let the UK forget it was the party that left.

 

[access]

all these countries not belonging to the eu must be having such a tough time trading. shame.

edit: with the uk being one of the biggest consumers in the world, they have the demand, if you want to supply at that scale you sing to their tune. like our agoa saga for example..

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

You don't understand how any of this works, do you?

I clearly understand it better than you.

The size of the EU gives it more bargaining power overall than its individual member states

Sometimes, not always.

the EU can and has negotiated trade agreements that are better for its members than any of them could obtain individually. That includes the UK

Do you think Greece or Latvia or even Germany gives a flying 'f' if France is given protection for naming "champagne"? Would they have demanded importers rename their products? Do you really think they could not have negotiated something better simply by not having to put an unnecessary burden on specific importers?

Speaking of Latvia, do you think they enjoy being forced by the EU to only produce a certain amount of dairy in favour of another member's trade? No problem despite it being their ONLY noteworthy agriculture?

If the EU's negotiating power is so very awesome there would be no need to forbid members from making their own trade agreements, there would also be no need to dictate what may be exported from where, after all, they'd be silly to go it alone...

Approximately 50% of the UK's exports go to EU countries (source - 54.3% to European countries, but Switzerland at 4.6% is not an EU member.) Nearly 15% goes to the USA, more than 6% to China and Hong Kong.

That's a total of 70% of all the UK's exports going to trading blocs or countries that the UK needs far more than they need it - so it makes ZERO financial sense for them to allow the UK to continue trading at the current EU rate. They will lose a little in the short term if they play hardball by refusing UK imports unless/until the UK renegotiates its trade agreements, but the UK will lose a hell of a lot more.

Ok now you're just off the rails and randomly connecting dots that don't actually connect
You also magically gloss over the UK's very substantial (on a global level) imports ...

I can tell you that those countries and blocs are already drawing up new trade agreements in anticipation of Brexit, and that they will drop them on the UK like a ton of bricks the day after it leaves the EU

:crylaugh: and you would be privy to that information HOW? Granted there's agreements being drafted in all likelihood, but far from being a "ton of bricks", you'll see the UK come out ahead with pretty much every nation on earth that is not in the EU.

Hoo boy, it's gonna be fun times when the UK tries to get back into the EU a decade or so down the line

Delusional, it will simply never happen, I'd bet money on it, but I don't feel like waiting a decade just to collect a bet.

 

[f2wohf]

On the dairy, again you simplify something and make the EU look bad without knowing the reasoning behind.

Almost every EU country produces way too much dairy. In France I think we literally throw something 25% of our production.

If Latvia wasn't limited in its production, other countries wouldn't be either and the price of dairy worldwide would crash and make the farmers bankrupt.

This is why we need restrictions on it.

PS: the farmers are paid by their governments and the EU for reducing their production so they don't lose out.

http://mobile.lemonde.fr/economie/a...voir-reduit-leur-production_5095513_3234.html

 

[Dave]

You start by saying:

You don't understand how any of this works, do you?

And then make a strange statement like:

it's even possible that these trade partners make an agreement to flat out refuse UK exports regardless of what the UK is willing to negotiate,

Have you not heard of the WTO?

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

the farmers are paid by their governments and the EU for reducing their production so they don't lose out

:crylaugh: ever been to Latvia? I have, twice, spoken to a few of these farmers you claim are not losing out, I suggest you go tell them that. Take your riot gear though, you are gonna get f-ed up good and proper with claims like that in the face of someone who's clearly suffering financially.

and there's no such thing as producing too much dairy, only when you restrict who you may sell too, Latvia's biggest customer, BY FAR, happens to be a neighbour they are now forbidden from selling anything to ...

 

[f2wohf]

:crylaugh: ever been to Latvia? I have, twice, spoken to a few of these farmers you claim are not losing out, I suggest you go tell them that. Take your riot gear though, you are gonna get f-ed up good and proper with claims like that in the face of someone who's clearly suffering financially.

If they were allowed to sell all their production, the prices would tank. And they would sell it at less than production cost.

Farmers in France, in Spain too suffer financially, it's not a single country issue.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

If they were allowed to sell all their production, the prices would tank. And they would sell it at less than production cost.
Farmers in France, in Spain too suffer financially, it's not a single country issue.

Funny how they were making money fine until they were forced to restrict production and forced to stop selling to Russia, prices did not tank, in fact, Latvian dairy products demanded a premium in their region due to their reputation for quality dairy products.

Didn't claim it is a single country issue btw, if you recall I blame the EU, it is causing widespread pain to its own members.

 

[f2wohf]

Funny how they were making money fine until they were forced to restrict production and forced to stop selling to Russia, prices did not tank, in fact, Latvian dairy products demanded a premium in their region due to their reputation for quality dairy products.

Didn't claim it is a single country issue btw, if you recall I blame the EU, it is causing widespread pain to its own members.

1) The Latvian price is not sold at a premium, it's in the average range.

2) Latvia is not nearly a big exporter to Russia. 5% of its production.

3) Thing I just learned, the milk quotas finished in 2015. So there are no more restrictions... What are you going to blame now ?

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/sit...ussian-import-ban/pdf/dairy-production_en.pdf