The Brexit Thread

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JayM said:
I'm wondering how you actually know people really voted to "take back control" or indeed what that means. I know a few very pissed off Brexit voters from our UK office who want the UK to remain in the single market - after all this was suggested by the leave campaign on numerous occasions, along with other tripe like 350M/week for NHS etc. 80% of the people at one of our UK suppliers voted for Brexit and if the UK leaves the customs union and there is no trade deal, they will be closing their doors.

The FT has done a good analysis of the various outcomes, and in every one barring single market access, the UK is going to be in a world of hurt:

https://www.ft.com/content/52fb4998-573f-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f?mhq5j=e2
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Don't bother, it's Chris.
 
zippy said:
If there is a dispute, a court needs to settle the dispute. Will it be the European Court or the UK Court that hears the dispute and makes the ruling. There is a difference between the EU and UK negotiation teams on this.
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A dispute will occur only after the divorce agreement is signed.

It will probably have a clause to go to arbitrage or ECJ, no way EU countries would agree to let it go to U.K. courts.
 
EU citizens living in UK will have to join special ID register

All 3 million EU citizens resident in Britain will have to apply for inclusion on a “settled status” register if they want to stay in the country after Brexit under Home Office proposals.

A 15-page policy paper proposes a “light touch” online system to process applications that will give applicants the same “indefinite leave to remain” status as many non-European nationals who have also lived in Britain for five years.

The EU “settled status” residence proposals could entail an identity card backed up by entry on a Home Office central database or register. It has yet to be decided whether the residence document for “settled status” EU citizens will be issued as an identity card or simply exist as an entry on a Home Office database.

The policy paper was published as Theresa May issued a statement detailing the government’s proposals on EU citizens’ rights after the UK leaves the bloc.
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The government says this will be discussed with the EU “as part of a reciprocal deal” and will be between 29 March 2017 – the date Article 50 was triggered – and the date of the UK’s withdrawal. The EU has argued that the effective date should be that of the UK’s actual departure.
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Man I hope it's the later.

Really don't want to deal with visa hassles.

edit: lol
http://www.bejudged.org/frankfurt-starts-experiments-driving-left-side/
 
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Ministers are looking at creating a new body to oversee EU citizens' rights in the UK in an effort to break the impasse over whose courts protect EU nationals after Brexit.


A Government source told Sky News that a new oversight body for EU citizens was shaping up as a "serious option" in a bid to find a compromise between the European Commission and the UK over who should protect EU citizens living in the UK.

The issue of legal oversight has become a sticking point in negotiations, with Theresa May rejecting the EU's position that the European Court of Justice should be the arbiter of any future disputes over citizens' rights.

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, has consistently said he expects the ECJ to enforce the rights of EU citizens in Britain, saying last month that "the rights in the withdrawal agreement will need to be directly enforceable and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice maintained".

However, the Prime Minister has explicitly rejected that demand, saying in her offer document to EU citizens living in the UK that the ECJ "will not have jurisdiction in the UK" after Brexit.
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http://news.sky.com/story/ministers-mull-creating-body-to-oversee-eu-citizens-rights-in-uk-10929813
 
British officials drop 'cake and eat it' approach to Brexit negotiations

British officials have quietly abandoned hope of securing the government’s promised “cake and eat it” Brexit deal, increasingly accepting the inevitability of a painful trade-off between market access and political control when the UK leaves the EU.

Government insiders report a dramatic change of mood at the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) since the general election, with growing Treasury influence helping force ministers to choose between prioritising economic interests or sovereignty.

This is in stark contrast to the public position of both main political parties, first set out in the Theresa May’s Lancaster House speech in January, in which she echoed Boris Johnson’s boast that Britain can “have its cake and eat it” – enjoying full trade access without conceding over immigration, courts and payments. Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn sacked three shadow ministers on Thursday for departing from a similar position.

Yet UK civil servants are now said to be presenting ministers with a more binary choice: accept political compromises similar to aspects of the European Economic Area (EEA), or settle for a much more limited trade deal such as the recent EU-Canada free trade agreement (Ceta).

“We have a problem in that really there are only two viable options,” one official told the Guardian. “One is a high-access, low-control arrangement which looks a bit like the EEA. The other is a low-access, high-control arrangement where you eventually end up looking like Ceta – a more classic free trade agreement, if you are lucky."
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lol.
 
The whole have your cake and eat it was deluded from the start. EU isn't the one with a gun to it's head and a ticking clock.

At this stage UK is more likely to end up with a quarter of a cake.

Also:
http://i.imgur.com/5aSLFYy.jpg
 
HavocXphere said:
The whole have your cake and eat it was deluded from the start. EU isn't the one with a gun to it's head and a ticking clock.

At this stage UK is more likely to end up with a quarter of a cake.

Also:
http://i.imgur.com/5aSLFYy.jpg
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Getting close to the point where the penny on financial passporting drops and they are forced into an EEA type deal in order to save the financial services sector, at which point they'll realise just staying in the EU would have been far better.

In other news, UK economy is now just about the worst performing in the entire EU (in terms of inflation, growth and real wage growth). All totally unnecessary - immigration controls were available but never implemented. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
 
Vote Leave chief who created £350m NHS claim on bus admits leaving EU could be 'an error'. Dominic Cummings also described the referendum as a 'dumb idea' - shaping up to be a 'guaranteed debacle'

One of the masterminds behind the Brexit vote has performed an astonishing U-turn by admitting that leaving the EU may be “an error”.

Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign director, described the referendum as a “dumb idea” before other ideas had been tried to win back powers from Brussels. He has also warned that Brexit is shaping up to be a “guaranteed debacle”, without big changes in Whitehall to deliver a successful negotiation.
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
Now the UK is forecast to be the top out of the major advanced economies.
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...5 months later...
JayM said:
In other news, UK economy is now just about the worst performing in the entire EU (in terms of inflation, growth and real wage growth)
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Fkin lol...and quite predictable.

JayM said:
Getting close to the point where the penny on financial passporting drops and they are forced into an EEA type deal in order to save the financial services sector, at which point they'll realise just staying in the EU would have been far better.
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Yeah think it'll sink in eventually. Unfortunately for me the whole EU national thing doesn't distinguish between suit wearing professional and refugee wanting to score social benefits. So fully expecting to get screwed in this...as is the rest of the EU suit wearing crew judging by chatter.
 
HavocXphere said:
...5 months later...

Fkin lol...and quite predictable.
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Also this:

UK productivity falls to pre-crisis level


HavocXphere said:
Yeah think it'll sink in eventually. Unfortunately for me the whole EU national thing doesn't distinguish between suit wearing professional and refugee wanting to score social benefits. So fully expecting to get screwed in this...as is the rest of the EU suit wearing crew judging by chatter.
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Well, that's largely built on myth anyway.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...es-show-fall-in-non-eu-arrivals-a6895341.html

One of the most frequently raised allegations about immigrants entering the UK is that they aim to exploit the national welfare system, despite numerous studies showing European migrants pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits.

David Cameron once called public concern about benefits tourism “widespread and understandable” but research has not found a statistical foundation for the fears.

Recent immigrants have made a net contribution of £20 billion to the UK over the last ten years, according to a UCL study, and foreigners are barred from several types of benefits without having permanent residency in the UK, unlike those on work visas, students and asylum seekers don't qualify.

In 2013, a spokesperson for the European Employment Commissioner said the British Government had “completely failed to come up with any specific evidence” to show that its welfare system was being abused and that EU nationals pay more in tax and other contributions than they receive in benefits.

In that same year, a European Commission report showed that unemployed EU migrants made up less than 5 per cent of migrant claimants across the bloc and that fewer than 38,000 were claiming Jobseeker's Allowance.

A leaked Home Office document later admitted that the Government keeps no figures on how many EU nationals claim welfare payments.

A study by University College London estimated that migrants coming to the UK since 2000 have been 43 per cent less likely to claim benefits or tax credits compared to the British-born workforce. “Immigrants, especially in recent years, tend to be younger and better educated than the UK-born and less likely to be unemployed,” the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE concluded in a separate report.
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