The Brexit Thread

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BBSA said:
Propably her first step in her ambition to become PM?
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Yup, positioning herself in the leadership race. No current Cabinet member should be PM because they've all gone along with TMay as well as none of them actually having the balls to get rid of her (a mass resignation of Cabinet Ministers would have ended her).

Looks new possible date to announce her resignation is Friday or Monday but notice how it is drifting. Was supposedly today, then Friday and now Monday. I think Monday would be best after EU election results.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1131273150589743104
 
How Farage outflanked everyone

For these voters, Farage is far more resonant today than he ever was before the referendum. Before the events of 2016 he appealed to their instinctive patriotism, social conservatism and support for leaving the EU. But ever since then he has appealed to something else, something that runs deep within these communities and which has become far more potent amid parliament’s failure to deliver Brexit. It is a strong, moral creed that has long put heavy emphasis, whether win or lose, on respecting the rules: it is the British sense of fair play.


Seen through the eyes of these voters, the failure of their elected representatives to deliver a meaningful Brexit marks not just a failure of governance but a failure to uphold and respect something that is fundamentally central to our national character.


This failure was perhaps always inevitable. One of the realities of post-referendum Britain is that the corridors of power are in the hands of losers who were used to feeling like winners. But the longer those who lost the 2016 referendum fudge, stall, conspire, delay or block, the stronger Farage becomes. There are few things that the Brits like less than sore losers; there is little they value more than playing by the rules.
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These voters are not all ex-Conservatives. While nearly three-quarters of those who plan to vote for the Brexit Party this weekend voted Conservative in 2017, hidden within the Brexit Party electorate is a small but significant number of Labour leavers, Liberal Democrats and people who usually shun elections.


Still, all of this is more than enough for Farage to exert a profound influence on multiple fronts: to strongly shape the internal politics of the Conservative Party, to drive the Tories toward a harder vision of Brexit, to then possibly cost the centre-Right the next general election and pave the way for Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn and the most radically Left-wing government that Britain has ever seen. Future historians will trace much of this to the influence of a man who has still not been elected onto the green benches in the House of Commons.


What happens this weekend will underline how Farage was always closer to the median voter than the social and economic liberals who dream of a British Macron are willing to accept. His time is now while theirs is yet to arrive. While the Brexit Party will soar, Change UK will tank. A revitalised Leave electorate will once again feel triumphant while a divided Remain camp will be forced to regroup, re-think and stare at an awkward question: how on earth has Nigel Farage outflanked them once again?
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Hamish McPanji said:
As an example, UKIP won the last European elections with 24 seats , more than Labour or Conservatives. Then they did nothing useful with the power it gave them, except not pitch up very often.
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Pitching up involves work. UKIP aren't very keen on that sort of thing.

C4Cat said:
Are you talking about the British in Africa, India and the Middle East?
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In fact it is true of immigrants everywhere. It is no surprise that ethnic enclaves form. Some people seem to think it is part of some Muslim plot or at least unique to Muslims.

I also wonder what percentage of the Muslim population in the UK are actually radical.

Hamish McPanji said:
I'm actually on the remain side of the divide, but as soon as the populace voted for Brexit, and negotiation was involved, I wanted the most bastard Brexiteer in place to pursue Brexit purely to ensure the strongest Britain for my kids future. The Tory idiots decides to vote for a leader that makes Chamberlain look like a warmongering hawk.
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I suppose as with Chamberlain it is easy to second guess after the fact and make assumptions about how things might have gone if people had made different decisions. I am not clear though on what a bastard brexiteer would achieve other than annoying the EU negotiators with arrogant and unrealistic demands.

The Free Radical said:
Farage for PM
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But who will do the job while he holds the title?
 
At least we won't have May bottling it anymore. Wonder who the Tories are going to choose now?
 
The Voice said:
At least we won't have May bottling it anymore. Wonder who the Tories are going to choose now?
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Ding dong, the witch is dead.

Actually she was always against Brexit. Got a bum deal. There are Welsh coal miners that had more love for Thatcher than the Brits do for May.
 
phaktza said:
Ding dong, the witch is dead.

Actually she was always against Brexit. Got a bum deal. There are Welsh coal miners that had more love for Thatcher than the Brits do for May.
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That was always the thing I never understood: how the Tories chose someone who vehemently opposed Brexit to negotiate the exit strategy.
 
The Voice said:
That was always the thing I never understood: how the Tories chose someone who vehemently opposed Brexit to negotiate the exit strategy.
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Because the rest of them already knew it would never work out and decided to cover their own asses by ruling themselves out of the PM position instead of put the country first.
 
The Voice said:
That was always the thing I never understood: how the Tories chose someone who vehemently opposed Brexit to negotiate the exit strategy.
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But none of them will take responsibility for it.

I think Gove backstabbing Bojo is what caused a schism of sorts on who to vote for
 
UK don't really give a hoot about EU elections do they? Dire turnout figures, compared to around 73% in referendum and 70% in general elections. Remain areas with higher turnout BUT many people thought higher turnout in EU referendum meant a victory for Remain. Can't really use this as a proxy for anything due to low turnout.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1131894704453427202
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
UK don't really give a hoot about EU elections do they? Dire turnout figures, compared to around 73% in referendum and 70% in general elections. Remain areas with higher turnout BUT many people thought higher turnout in EU referendum meant a victory for Remain. Can't really use this as a proxy for anything due to low turnout.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1131894704453427202
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Most people don't care about this. It's the really motivated ones that would. In this case I think the brexiteers are more motivated.

So the brexit party will improve on the UKIP performance from last time because the Tory and some labour vote has gone that way.
 
So.... projected results are:

Brexit Party : 31-37%
Labour: 13-24%
Lib Dems: 12-20%
Cons : 7-15%
Greens: 7-10%
Change UK : 3-4%
SNP : 3-4%
UKIP : 2-4%

Vote was like 4 days ago, but results should be coming out tonight. (French lady I met today was going to vote today) Results delayed to allow all countries tondo their votes.

Rank based on averages are more difficult to predict for the lower places. So Libdems might come 2nd, 3rd or 4th:

1. Brexit Party
2. Labour
3. Lib dems
4. Cons
5. Greens
6. Change UK
7. SNP
8. UKIP
9. Plaid Cymru
10. Others

There were quite a few issues with the elections in the Europeans living in UK were being turned away at the ballot boxes. Reasons being, arseholes at voting stations were telling them to vote in their own country, or the process not being transparent and against the rules of the European elections. Might get challenges in court
 
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List of candidates for PM is increasing:

Boris Johnson
Andrea Leadsom
Michael Gove
Dominic Raab
Esther McVey
Sajid Javid
Matt Hancock
Jeremy Hunt

I think.
 
Hamish McPanji said:
List of candidates for PM is increasing:

Boris Johnson
Andrea Leadsom
Michael Gove
Dominic Raab
Esther McVey
Sajid Javid
Matt Hancock
Jeremy Hunt

I think.
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You forgot the most sane and competent one of the lot - Rory Stewart.
 
JayM said:
You forgot the most sane and competent one of the lot - Rory Stewart.
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No chance - no support base amongst Tory MPs and he loves Theresa May's deal. Non-starter. He also comes across on TV as a bit of a creep.

Hamish McPanji said:
I kind of lost count. Was going to put Amber Rudd in there as well.
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She's ruled herself out (thankfully).

Here's the Google document spreadsheet with the declared backers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet..._n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0

I want Priti Patel :thumbsup:
 
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