The Brexit Thread

[Dave]

Where was I born Dave?

Have I mistaken you for someone else who is in the UK on a spousal visa? If so, and you are British as opposed to simply having residence or a Brit passport through naturalisation I apologise.

I have got quite pissed off recently at the number of Saffas I’ve come across with a subtle racist attitude and always pro-Brexit/pro-Farage and have an opinion on how to keep non-whites and Eastern European people out of the UK, most seem to automatically think I’m going to agree with them just because I’ve got an SA accent.

 

[Dave]

Dunno Dave, I get your point, but Adrian clearly has an interest and if the UK is his home then he is entitled to his views imo.

The ones who are here on visas or still on leave to remain are still guests in the country, the arrogance a lot of them show is fcuking annoying. They always have a go at “immigrants” when that’s exactly what they are, they are of course referring to the ones UKIP and the Brexit Party hate but forget they are actually in that same category.

Especially as many of them have a barely hidden racist streak (this isn’t in reference to Adrian or any comments I’ve recently made here)l

 

[AdrianH]

Have I mistaken you for someone else who is in the UK on a spousal visa? If so, and you are British as opposed to simply having residence or a Brit passport through naturalisation I apologise.

I have got quite pissed off recently at the number of Saffas I’ve come across with a subtle racist attitude and always pro-Brexit/pro-Farage as a way to keep non-whites and Eastern European people out of the UK, most seem to automatically think I’m going to agree with them just because I’ve got an SA accent.

Indeed you must have, I was born in England. I might have mentioned over the last two years my wife is on spousal visa, maybe that is where you got it from. Apology accepted, let's move on.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Ex-Brexit Party MEP says Johnson's deal has left her fishing business 'on its knees'

The London Economic - June Mummery said that waiting five years for fishing quotas to expire was “a long time when you have nothing" - Politics

www.thelondoneconomic.com

'An absolute killer': small UK firms struggle with Brexit VAT rules

Britain is no longer part of the EU VAT area, leading to extra costs for companies exporting to Europe

www.theguardian.com

Brexit parcel price shock: 'I had to pay £30 for a gift'

It's not just shoppers facing surprise costs when EU parcels arrive, but what is behind the charges?

www.bbc.com

Brexit: Dutch warehouse boom as UK firms forced to invest abroad

Hornby and JD Sports among firms after space to offset port delays, extra freight costs plus new VAT and customs fees

www.theguardian.com

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[AdrianH]

You look at what they achieve, what you give up to get them, and how much trade they cover.

The biggest ones they've crowed about recently, for example, cover a miniscule % of the UK economy.

And given the best case scenario for trade deals is doing away with tariffs, they're at best trying to achieve what they already had.

I unfortunately don't know much about trade deals etc. I have tried to gather some info though and maybe we can discuss so I can get a better understanding.

In billions:

• The trade between EU and UK for 2019 was £668. The Brexit trade agreement between is for £660. There doesn't seem to be much difference.
• The trade between non-EU and UK for 2019 was £744. The current non-EU signed trade agreements amount to £210, which accounts for 28%. I think its fair to say its more than a miniscule % of the UK economy, especially the Japan, Singapore, Turkey and Canada deals.
• The US accounted for 34% of that £744 which is £252 and is the biggest trading nation outside the EU for UK.
• That leaves around £282 (excl US) that need trade deals, especially for bigger trading nations like Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, and Russia.

Obviously the non-EU nations with no agreements fall into WTO. I would presume over the next years, most will end up having agreements. What I don't understand is if the trade between EU and UK was £668 and the deal is £660, are we talking about £8 difference.

My sources
Brexit: Which countries has the UK agreed trade deals with? | Politics News | Sky News
Statistics on UK-EU trade - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)

 

[OrbitalDawn]

I unfortunately don't know much about trade deals etc. I have tried to gather some info though and maybe we can discuss so I can get a better understanding.

In billions:

• The trade between EU and UK for 2019 was £668. The Brexit trade agreement between is for £660. There doesn't seem to be much difference.
• The trade between non-EU and UK for 2019 was £744. The current non-EU signed trade agreements amount to £210, which accounts for 28%. I think its fair to say its more than a miniscule % of the UK economy, especially the Japan, Singapore, Turkey and Canada deals.
• The US accounted for 34% of that £744 which is £252 and is the biggest trading nation outside the EU for UK.
• That leaves around £282 (excl US) that need trade deals, especially for bigger trading nations like Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, and Russia

Not sure where you get some of those figures from?

US-UK trade in total for 2019 was £182bn.

09 Geographical breakdown of the current account, The Pink Book - Office for National Statistics

Detailed annual statistics on the geographical breakdown of the current account including trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income and transactions with Europe and the US.

www.ons.gov.uk

Obviously the non-EU nations with no agreements fall into WTO. I would presume over the next years, most will end up having agreements. What I don't understand is if the trade between EU and UK was £668 and the deal is £660, are we talking about £8 difference.


My sources
Brexit: Which countries has the UK agreed trade deals with? | Politics News | Sky News
Statistics on UK-EU trade - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)

There's probably just some particularly niggly area/industry that got carved out of the negotiations for whatever reason. Doesn't make much difference either way.

But remember, that's the just the value of trade that happened - it says nothing about the conditions of the trade as impacted by trade deals (whether they're in force or not, whether they're good or bad).

And not all trade deals are equal - it depends entirely what concessions were given and received. What industries are included or not, etc. One of the good ones from the recent EU-Japan trade deal was about reducing tariffs on batteries for electric vehicles, for example. I think that was included in the EU-UK one, too.

With many of these newly signed trade deals, they're basically just roll over deals while new ones will be negotiated over time. Meaning the concessions the UK will have to make to get them are yet to be determined (and vice versa, the concessions they can get from all these other countries). But now they're doing it from a position of relative weakness, compared to being part of the largest trading block on the planet.

 

[Rosaudio]

Ex-Brexit Party MEP says Johnson's deal has left her fishing business 'on its knees'

The London Economic - June Mummery said that waiting five years for fishing quotas to expire was “a long time when you have nothing" - Politics

www.thelondoneconomic.com

'An absolute killer': small UK firms struggle with Brexit VAT rules

Britain is no longer part of the EU VAT area, leading to extra costs for companies exporting to Europe

www.theguardian.com

Brexit parcel price shock: 'I had to pay £30 for a gift'

It's not just shoppers facing surprise costs when EU parcels arrive, but what is behind the charges?

www.bbc.com

Brexit: Dutch warehouse boom as UK firms forced to invest abroad

Hornby and JD Sports among firms after space to offset port delays, extra freight costs plus new VAT and customs fees

www.theguardian.com

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If only people were warned how stupid Brexit would be?

 

[AdrianH]

Not sure where you get some of those figures from?

US-UK trade in total for 2019 was £182bn.

Statistics on UK-EU trade - House of Commons Library

This note provides some basic statistics on the UK's trade with the EU.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk

From above, I added imports and exports together though. For US it says 21% for exports, and 13% for imports out of the total trade amounts. I may have made an error in my maths though. Hang on...

So from that PDF on page, £691 (exports) + £721 (imports) = £1412 (which is actually 200%)

So US is 34% / 2 (because I combined imports and exports) is 17% which is £240 of total £1412 total (import + export).

There's probably just some particularly niggly area/industry that got carved out of the negotiations for whatever reason. Doesn't make much difference either way.

But remember, that's the just the value of trade that happened - it says nothing about the conditions of the trade as impacted by trade deals (whether they're in force or not, whether they're good or bad).

And not all trade deals are equal - it depends entirely what concessions were given and received. What industries are included or not, etc. One of the good ones from the recent EU-Japan trade deal was about reducing tariffs on batteries for electric vehicles, for example. I think that was included in the EU-UK one, too.

With many of these newly signed trade deals, they're basically just roll over deals while new ones will be negotiated over time. Meaning the concessions the UK will have to make to get them are yet to be determined (and vice versa, the concessions they can get from all these other countries). But now they're doing it from a position of relative weakness, compared to being part of the largest trading block on the planet.

Wouldn't the non-EU countries also been at a weak position on their negotiations between each nation and EU anyway. Its not like that could go in demanding A to Z from the EU. I am pretty sure a lot of non-EU nations got a not so good deal in the first place, probably quite raw but needed to have a deal signed.

Now though all these non-EU those nations and UK can negotiate on a more even "nation to nation" footing. I would prsume both nations could benefit from a more balanced trade agreement.

But I'm a programmer, what do I know? At least I put an effort into understanding.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Statistics on UK-EU trade - House of Commons Library

This note provides some basic statistics on the UK's trade with the EU.

commonslibrary.parliament.uk

From above, I added imports and exports together though. For US it says 21% for exports, and 13% for imports out of the total trade amounts. I may have made an error in my maths though. Hang on...

So from that PDF on page, £691 (exports) + £721 (imports) = £1412 (which is actually 200%)

So US is 34% / 2 (because I combined imports and exports) is 17% which is £240 of total £1412 total (import + export).

You could also just look at the ONS statistics?

Wouldn't the non-EU countries also been at a weak position on their negotiations between each nation and EU anyway. Its not like that could go in demanding A to Z from the EU. I am pretty sure a lot of non-EU nations got a not so good deal in the first place, probably quite raw but needed to have a deal signed.

Yes, and for the same reason. It doesn't mean the deal can't still be worth it, but you're just obviously in a weaker bargaining position. For smaller countries they don't have much choice, but getting a deal is still great because they can get access to so many countries without having to negotiate individually with all of them.

A bunch of countries have also formed trading/negotiating blocks to help give themselves a bit more clout, like CARIFORUM, SADC, Mercosur etc.

Now though all these non-EU those nations and UK can negotiate on a more even "nation to nation" footing. I would prsume both nations could benefit from a more balanced trade agreement.

But I'm a programmer, what do I know? At least I put an effort into understanding.

That's better for them, not the UK, though. And the UK doesn't really benefit from a more 'balanced' position. How could it be better when the strength of your position has been downgraded?

 

[The Voice]

The ones who are here on visas or still on leave to remain are still guests in the country, the arrogance a lot of them show is fcuking annoying. They always have a go at “immigrants” when that’s exactly what they are, they are of course referring to the ones UKIP and the Brexit Party hate but forget they are actually in that same category.

Especially as many of them have a barely hidden racist streak (this isn’t in reference to Adrian or any comments I’ve recently made here)l

So their opinions don't matter, but the opinions of people who have never set foot outside of their dorpie and/or mom's basement in Souf Effrika do?

 

[Rosaudio]

The ones who are here on visas or still on leave to remain are still guests in the country, the arrogance a lot of them show is fcuking annoying. They always have a go at “immigrants” when that’s exactly what they are, they are of course referring to the ones UKIP and the Brexit Party hate but forget they are actually in that same category.

Especially as many of them have a barely hidden racist streak (this isn’t in reference to Adrian or any comments I’ve recently made here)l

Too right

 

[AdrianH]

That's better for them, not the UK, though. And the UK doesn't really benefit from a more 'balanced' position. How could it be better when the strength of your position has been downgraded?

Here's one of my thoughts.

The EU have trade regulations which are in place to protect EU nations from "unfair trade practices" and " EU markets from foreign lower prices" and so on.

So in other words and it's just a simple example, an EU country manufacturers catalytic converters. There are also non EU countries making catalytic converters, same quality, just cheaper. So the EU regulates the importing of catalytic converters into EU nations by imposing quality standards as one of many controls to protect the EU country manufacturing catalytic converters. Ultimately it would cost more for an EU country to import catalytic converters from non-EU country, even though they are cheaper and are of same quality. Or in some cases, will be blocked importing non-EU catalytic converters and forced to buy these catalytic converters from EU country for a higher price than the non-EU ones.

Now UK can approach these non-EU countries and get the same quality catalytic converters at cheaper prices. So both the country and UK win. UK gets cheaper catalytic converters and the country sells more of them.

As a side note, one thing that has come to light is that if UK were still in the EU, it would be forced to use the EU vaccine purchase program and the UK would not have control over its vaccine rollout, basically surrendering purchasing and distribution of the vaccines to the EU. So far the EU is failing their member states to the point where they are frustrated and angry at their poor vaccine rollout, while UK is 3rd or 4th in the world on vaccine rollout. Brexit is not all about numbers in a spreadsheet.

 

[Dave]

So their opinions don't matter, but the opinions of people who have never set foot outside of their dorpie and/or mom's basement in Souf Effrika do?

I don’t follow, if you mean those still in SA then they can have an opinion (just like Saffas in the UK can), but they shouldn’t be trying to tell Brits what they should think or talk about when it’s relating to UK affairs.

As an analogy, they can go and visit someone’s house and have an opinion on the bright pink paint job, but it’s not their place to tell the host they think he’s got a schit paint job on his house.

I’m probably being over sensitive, but I’ve just had enough of the immigrant Saffas who barely contain their racism and love the idea of Brexit as some form of control over immigration into the UK of non-whites, Muslims, Eastern Europeans etc, trying to categorise themselves as different from the above, it’s amazing how quickly they acclimatise to use the local racist terms like Paki, N*g*er, pikey, etc as well.

Maybe I’ve just had a run of bad luck meeting that sort of pond life, but it’s just been pissing me off for a while, especially as they all immediately assume you have the same prejudices.

I’m sure everyone here has met at least one of the above...

 

[Dave]

So in other words and it's just a simple example, an EU country manufacturers catalytic converters. There are also non EU countries making catalytic converters, same quality, just cheaper.

Commonly known as international trade, you only have to look at the Orange Trumpanzee’s punitive tariffs on imports to protect the higher prices of locally produced goods, steel is a good example.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Here's one of my thoughts.

The EU have trade regulations which are in place to protect EU nations from "unfair trade practices" and " EU markets from foreign lower prices" and so on.

So in other words and it's just a simple example, an EU country manufacturers catalytic converters. There are also non EU countries making catalytic converters, same quality, just cheaper. So the EU regulates the importing of catalytic converters into EU nations by imposing quality standards as one of many controls to protect the EU country manufacturing catalytic converters. Ultimately it would cost more for an EU country to import catalytic converters from non-EU country, even though they are cheaper and are of same quality. Or in some cases, will be blocked importing non-EU catalytic converters and forced to buy these catalytic converters from EU country for a higher price than the non-EU ones.

Now UK can approach these non-EU countries and get the same quality catalytic converters at cheaper prices. So both the country and UK win. UK gets cheaper catalytic converters and the country sells more of them.

As a side note, one thing that has come to light is that if UK were still in the EU, it would be forced to use the EU vaccine purchase program and the UK would not have control over its vaccine rollout, basically surrendering purchasing and distribution of the vaccines to the EU. So far the EU is failing their member states to the point where they are frustrated and angry at their poor vaccine rollout, while UK is 3rd or 4th in the world on vaccine rollout. Brexit is not all about numbers in a spreadsheet.

You mean tariffs, presumably, not quality standards?

And in that example the question will be what other industries are impacted by whatever trade deals are being negotiated. It's not generally focused on a single product.

In the case of the EU, there would likely be a raft of products that are tariff-free being traded with that non-EU country. Tariffs that the UK might put on to protect their local industries (assuming they don't have a catalytic converter industry).

Which industries/products are they happy to see decline, outsource jobs or get eliminated in return for cheaper catalytic converters? Additionally, what industries/products do they now have to pay tariffs on because they don't get the benefit

The EU can drive a harder bargain in return for dropping tariffs, because they're offering unfettered access to a much bigger market.

Remember the argument in favour of free trade agreements is basically that on balance it provides more benefits than drawbacks, not that there are no drawbacks.

 

[AdrianH]

You mean tariffs, presumably, not quality standards?

And in that example the question will be what other industries are impacted by whatever trade deals are being negotiated. It's not generally focused on a single product.

In the case of the EU, there would likely be a raft of products that are tariff-free being traded with that non-EU country. Tariffs that the UK might put on to protect their local industries (assuming they don't have a catalytic converter industry).

Which industries/products are they happy to see decline, outsource jobs or get eliminated in return for cheaper catalytic converters? Additionally, what industries/products do they now have to pay tariffs on because they don't get the benefit

The EU can drive a harder bargain in return for dropping tariffs, because they're offering unfettered access to a much bigger market.

Remember the argument in favour of free trade agreements is basically that on balance it provides more benefits than drawbacks, not that there are no drawbacks.

Yeah, tariffs....I don't really know to be honest. I'm not an economist, I didn't do business subjects at school or varsity, I can write decent software applications though

I'm just trying to understand, that's all.

 

[The Voice]

I don’t follow, if you mean those still in SA then they can have an opinion (just like Saffas in the UK can), but they shouldn’t be trying to tell Brits what they should think or talk about when it’s relating to UK affairs.

As an analogy, they can go and visit someone’s house and have an opinion on the bright pink paint job, but it’s not their place to tell the host they think he’s got a schit paint job on his house.

I’m probably being over sensitive, but I’ve just had enough of the immigrant Saffas who barely contain their racism and love the idea of Brexit as some form of control over immigration into the UK of non-whites, Muslims, Eastern Europeans etc, trying to categorise themselves as different from the above, it’s amazing how quickly they acclimatise to use the local racist terms like Paki, N*g*er, pikey, etc as well.

Maybe I’ve just had a run of bad luck meeting that sort of pond life, but it’s just been pissing me off for a while, especially as they all immediately assume you have the same prejudices.

I’m sure everyone here has met at least one of the above...

I get what you're saying. But using your own analogy, the people in question aren't just visiting the house: they rent one of the rooms now, contribute towards utilities, etc. And some of them even have a say (or like to think they do) in how the house is decorated, or in any future alterations to it. So I imagine there is a sense of entitlement. And when in Rome...

I guess this "streak" comes out because whether we'd like to admit it or not, we probably feel "superior" to other immigrants because we're able to acclimatise a lot quicker than people from other countries because of our shared language and values (we belonged to the Crown for a while, let's not forget).

Weird thing I've found with expats is how we tend to try and stick to our own when we're here - just like other immigrants. It just doesn't rub the locals up the wrong way as much - mainly because we're usually the same colour as them.

I guess the adage shouldn't change, though: don't bring the country you left behind with you.

 

[Dave]

I guess the adage shouldn't change, though: don't bring the country you left behind with you.

That message should be carved in letters as big as Stonehenge.

 

[AdrianH]

and just to add, I’m not trying to pick a fight but it‘s pretty annoying when a Saffa who just happens to live in England starts lecturing British citizens (by birthright) what they should or shouldn’t complain about in the UK.

Have I mistaken you for someone else who is in the UK on a spousal visa? If so, and you are British as opposed to simply having residence or a Brit passport through naturalisation I apologise.

I have been thinking about this and I disagree, especially the part about distinguishing between birth citizens and naturalized citizens.

If I use this on myself in SA, it means even though I spent the majority of my life in SA, paying taxes, contributing to economy, voting, giving people work, owning property, and living my life as a South African, I can't lecture the Saffers born there because my SA citizenship is less valid or less important because I was naturalized into SA and became a citizen?

For me, a person that pays taxes and is trying to build a life in a "foreign" country is good enough for me to let them have their say (not vote) and lecture others about that country and matters within the country, even if they are not a citizen, or they have become one by naturalization.

Who's opinion and contribution do you value higher, the unemployed citizen living in a council house and getting benefits, or the non-citizen contributing to the economy and paying taxes and trying to build a life. I know who I would choose every time.

PS: I may be born in England, but I am a way more South African, and proud of it. I'll probably always feel this way regardless of how long I remain in England. The difference between me and my SA countrymen is that I am fortunately enough to have British citizenship which I can use to leave the mess the ANC have created. It doesn't make me any less South African because I was born in England, nor that I am now in England does my opinion of SA count less.

 

[C4Cat]

If I use this on myself in SA, it means even though I spent the majority of my life in SA, paying taxes, contributing to economy, voting, giving people work, owning property, and living my life as a South African, I can't lecture the Saffers born there because my SA citizenship is less valid or less important because I was naturalized into SA and became a citizen?

I think it's more about people complaining about immigrants and foreigners coming into the UK (or SA) when the person complaining is themselves an immigrant/foreigner. They see themselves as the 'right kind' of immigrant as opposed to the 'wrong kind'