The chosen few

This is a particularly insightful and well-informed analysis of the current situation, especially the observation that there will be no new spectrum licences before mid-2009. If anything, that's probably optimistic.

I predict that most of the players named will not get WiMAX spectrum, even if they do get ECNS licences eventually (perhaps by 2011 or so, based on previous experience). The spectrum will go to Smile, Uninet, and perhaps one or two other large, unexpected players not on this list (regardless of the BEE criteria), but there will be very little rollout other than those WiMAX players already in the market (Neotel, Vodacom/WBS and Telkom). Similarly, Sentech will keep its 25% of the 2.6 GHz band, and will continue not to use it at all.

Other than the wastage of spectrum, this is not altogether a bad thing, since the market (and the environment) certainly cannot sustain a mass rollout of five or six WiMAX networks - a typical city needs many hundreds of sites to give coverage approaching that of 3G (CDMA2000 or even HSDPA) - currently Vodacom/WBS and Telkom claim high-quality WiMAX coverage way beyond anything they can actually deliver on a loaded network.
 
Just a quick answer Telkoms cheapest Wimax offer is R240 without ISP what is Ibursts/vodacom's cheapest offer without ISP?
 
ads said:
This is a particularly insightful and well-informed analysis of the current situation, especially the observation that there will be no new spectrum licences before mid-2009. If anything, that's probably optimistic.

I predict that most of the players named will not get WiMAX spectrum, even if they do get ECNS licences eventually (perhaps by 2011 or so, based on previous experience). The spectrum will go to Smile, Uninet, and perhaps one or two other large, unexpected players not on this list (regardless of the BEE criteria), but there will be very little rollout other than those WiMAX players already in the market (Neotel, Vodacom/WBS and Telkom). Similarly, Sentech will keep its 25% of the 2.6 GHz band, and will continue not to use it at all.

Other than the wastage of spectrum, this is not altogether a bad thing, since the market (and the environment) certainly cannot sustain a mass rollout of five or six WiMAX networks - a typical city needs many hundreds of sites to give coverage approaching that of 3G (CDMA2000 or even HSDPA) - currently Vodacom/WBS and Telkom claim high-quality WiMAX coverage way beyond anything they can actually deliver on a loaded network.
Click to expand...

Agreed although it seems that the 51% may not be sustainable seeing as how ICASA relied on the wrong sections of the Act as justification for imposing it :rolleyes:

afaik Smile has 21% HDI as per its Draft IECS licence
 
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