The LONMIN share price thread

[Thor]

One question I cannot get an answer to, do I still buy the rights offer shares? Or are the current shares good enough. I have 13k normal shares and the rights for a further 11k.

You can't anymore Thursday was the last day

 

[thehuman]

He mean he already bought the right (11k) .
I bought a few normal ones hope it increase before right isue then sell some of it again.
And still accept the rights

 

[Toothless]

One question I cannot get an answer to, do I still buy the rights offer shares? Or are the current shares good enough. I have 13k normal shares and the rights for a further 11k.

Not if the actual share price is close, even or below the rights offer of 21c.

The actual share price is now on 23c. The chances are good that it could slip into the 10c range on Monday or early this week. So, no one would really want to take up the rights offer at 21c.

As for Lonmin itself, this share had been a risk from the start and offered no investment potential whatsoever. There are many people who warned about this on this forum when others started their 'ventures'.

Yes, Lonmin did offer a quick money-making opportunity 2 weeks ago when the share slipped into the 20c range. This is where people should have bought in, but they should have sold already. Anyone who hanged on to their shares have basically lost huge chunks of their investments. Anyone who bought shares over the 30c price range basically lost the biggest part of their investment.

The big question now is, is there an opportunity for Lonmin to make a comeback in the long term?

To answer this question you should not only look at Lonmin itself and demand and price of platinum, those are small factors. One needs to look at the SA government, employment factors (specifically things related to productivity, strikes, wage demands, etc.) and then any possible future government leaders (specifically the EFF and Julius Malema). Do or will they offer favorable mining and profitable conditions for the company?

My own answer to this is that they do not. Lonmin basically do not have a long future in this country. They will stop their mining activities sooner rather than later. They will delist soon as well. Forget about the number of workers they have that will be left unemployed. Government will not bail them out, they can't. Lonmin is in trouble.

So, while the shares are up and down, short term investors, willing to take the risk, can make a few thousand. I do not see a long term investment opportunity. I do not see their shares going up to R2 or R5 again in future.

 

[Toothless]

You can't anymore Thursday was the last day

True.

Strange that on Friday morning the share opened on 20c. A huge drop from the previous day close.

This may be an indication of what's to come for Lonmin?

 

[snoopdoggydog]

Platinum jumped 3.86% on Friday

 

[Thor]

True.

Strange that on Friday morning the share opened on 20c. A huge drop from the previous day close.

This may be an indication of what's to come for Lonmin?

It's pretty normal for shares to fall drastically during the final phases of a rights issue.

I've done similar risky trades like this.

Yes Lonmin will close down, but not in the next year.

So I'm confident I'll make a another profit apart from the big one I made buying at 26 cents and selling at R1.10

I just need the price to lift a little and it will be worth my while

 

[Bundu]

if LON does fold, I would imagine that the PIC will have lots to explain.... very risky pension investment IMO

 

[Thor]

if LON does fold, I would imagine that the PIC will have lots to explain.... very risky pension investment IMO

All the more reason why Lonmin won't fall.

Way too much political pressure the ANC cannot afford the loss

 

[Toothless]

It's pretty normal for shares to fall drastically during the final phases of a rights issue.

I've done similar risky trades like this.

Yes Lonmin will close down, but not in the next year.

So I'm confident I'll make a another profit apart from the big one I made buying at 26 cents and selling at R1.10

I just need the price to lift a little and it will be worth my while

I really do hope so, because, like I stated earlier, I also bit the bullet yesterday and bought into it at 24c.

However, the nail in our coffin came today when the SA economy was graded by major rating agencies from stable to negative. This will, the coming month, have all sorts of negative influences on our markets, not even to mention the economy itself.

As for Lonmin, I suspect that investors holding shares in the holding company abroad, may increase pressure on Lonmin to exit the SA market, and I really do not see them having any other choice. Ignoring their investors demands in the next month may see an overall fall in Lonmin. So, I suspect the delisting and closing of operations in SA may happen in the first quarter or half of next year.

I do not really see the SA government changing any policies that would keep Lonmin operating in our negative economy at this point in time. In addition to a negative economy our governments' policies makes it merely impossible for any company to afford sustainable growth.

But, until then, hopefully the share price will rise at least 10c and I will be out. If not, I will lose a couple of tens of thousands and that is fine, because I knew the risks.

 

[Papsak]

I am a a very boring, long term investor - but have enjoyed watching the Lonmin and it's roller coaster share price. I might just take a small punt - but it really would be a small punt (thanks EE) - on Monday, just to satisfy my gambling urge. I would say though that it looks like it's on the way out unless the platinum price picks up which is doubtful in the short term. I cannot see the government stepping in IMO - they are running out of money bailing out parastatals already.

 

[Thor]

I am a a very boring, long term investor - but have enjoyed watching the Lonmin and it's roller coaster share price. I might just take a small punt - but it really would be a small punt (thanks EE) - on Monday, just to satisfy my gambling urge. I would say though that it looks like it's on the way out unless the platinum price picks up which is doubtful in the short term. I cannot see the government stepping in IMO - they are running out of money bailing out parastatals already.

I'm also a boring long term investor

 

[Thor]

This week is make or break

 

[Toothless]

This week is make or break

Yep, can't wait for tomorrow morning... I love a gamble, especially when it pays off.

 

[Thor]

Yep, can't wait for tomorrow morning... I love a gamble, especially when it pays off.

I think it will remain below 35 cents until thursday ( I think thursday is the rights issue thing ) then friday will probably be "unpredictable" like have some spikes then from next next week ( 14th ) from then onwards the "real" price will reflect.

I think.

 

[Thor]

In other words I am hoping if all goes well to sell in the week of the 14th

 

[Toothless]

I think it will remain below 35 cents until thursday ( I think thursday is the rights issue thing ) then friday will probably be "unpredictable" like have some spikes then from next next week ( 14th ) from then onwards the "real" price will reflect.

I think.

It will be an interesting week if their shares start dropping below 21c ahead of the Rights Issues and remains there. We could see a collapse of Lonmin shares before Thursday too.

Unless, if the company underhandedly pours a few tens of millions into shares to artificially raise the price ahead of the rights issue, but then I would like to buy out before then.

 

[Papsak]

Originally Posted by Thor187 View Post
It's pretty normal for shares to fall drastically during the final phases of a rights issue.

I've done similar risky trades like this.

Yes Lonmin will close down, but not in the next year.

So I'm confident I'll make a another profit apart from the big one I made buying at 26 cents and selling at R1.10

I just need the price to lift a little and it will be worth my while

So you managed to pretty much pick the bottom AND the top of that spike. Impressive. Are you using any particular method/charting system?

 

[Thor]

So you managed to pretty much pick the bottom AND the top of that spike. Impressive. Are you using any particular method/charting system?

Pure luck

It's where this whole thing started someone in another thread said lonmin is dirt cheap it was 27 cents at the time, I just so happen to have made a fck load of money from Trustco, so I thought what the heck why not.

I bought 5000 shares @ 27 cents and then sold at R1.08 think it was 3 days later about

So I made my initial money back and then I thought oh well I got my money back plus more so I used part of it and and bought another 20000 shares my average price per share is a bit high at the moment sitting on 31 cents so I just want to exit as soon as it hits the R1 mark. Not looking to test the fate and hope for R5, R10, R15 as I don't think it will ever get there again ( I do not know the commodities market, never traded it so have no clue )

I'm an investor not a trader I never do stuff like this I never watch the market as closely as I did the last few days.

I tend to spot a quality company dump a lump sum into it and leave for 10 odd years (capitec @ R36), not really phased with day to day fluctuations, but Lonmin on the other hand, this is exciting stuff hehe

 

[Papsak]

Hope it works out

 

[Thor]

Hope it works out

Me too

Like you have no idea!

I want to buy more Balwin Properties Ltd