The SA Politics Thread Part 3

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JuliusSeizure said:
Their number of voters is not going to increase by much if at all compared to 2019 but their percentage could (if there is a very low turnout).
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And that's what determines how many seats you get. It isn't first-past-the-post like wards, where raw vote count determines what happens.
JuliusSeizure said:
Expect the praise-singing and gloating to increase if this happens.
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Expect the sobbing and studio implosions to ensue when the DA surpasses or equals their 2019 result regardless of turnout.
 
PrimeSteak said:
And that's what determines how many seats you get. It isn't first-past-the-post like wards, where raw vote count determines what happens.

Expect the sobbing and studio implosions to ensue when the DA surpasses or equals their 2019 result regardless of turnout.
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I would still like to hear how exactly is just equalling their 2019 result or being just above it going to help with this, because if that's the plan then their ambitions are a perfect non starter.

Hope they remember that their mess up in Tshwane is going to cost them big, Tshwane is in Gauteng, the very same province where they have grand ambitions. Good thing the election is next year, I would still like to see John going to all those townships who are always struggling with water.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673762381321871360
 
Mista_Mobsta said:
Stupid question here but let's go:

Why doesn't the DA create a proposed list of ministerial candidates for the various NB positions in government?

They constantly attack the other political parties instead of focusing on the most important aspect, at least in my opinion, when deciding which political party to vote for: ensuring capable, experienced and successful candidates are placed in the various ministerial portfolios.

Maybe I am naïve when it comes to understanding the politics of being a minister but surely rotating candidates between portfolios that they are incapable of running seems like a terrible idea for accountability?
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Like @ToxicBunny said, look towards their shadow ministers.

But let's say the DA would do something like that right now. The rest of Moonshot would dogpile them over "arrogance", the moment they do that...
 
ToxicBunny said:
Very likely, but they're all so different that they will be even more unstable than the Moonshot lot if you ask me.

They're also so incredibly selfish and powerhungry that they will never be able to agree on anything.
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100% and what does Ace bring to the table? not like he is a Zuma with a lot of supporters. Just like the Moonshot it will be a non starter, they could have the EFF but they won't have the DA and IFP which you need to even start entertaining the idea of removing the ANC.

So the way I see it it's going to be a very nice stalemate, the Moonshot won't have the numbers without the EFF and PA, Ace's organization won't have the numbers without the DA, IFP and others, even if the ANC happens to lose its majority, the biggest race would be between parties vying to get into bed with the ANC.
 
TheChamp said:
100% and what does Ace bring to the table? not like he is a Zuma with a lot of supporters. Just like the Moonshot it will be a non starter, they could have the EFF but they won't have the DA and IFP which you need to even start entertaining the idea of removing the ANC.

So the way I see it it's going to be a very nice stalemate, the Moonshot won't have the numbers without the EFF and PA, Ace's organization won't have the numbers without the DA, IFP and others, even if the ANC happens to lose its majority, the biggest race would be between parties vying to get into bed with the ANC.
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So I honestly see the Moonshot as something that has some small chance of being successful. It may not unseat the ANC but I do think they have a chance of scaring the living shyte out of the ANC.

This idea from Ace though, its just a farce, I don't even think they'll get enough traction to get more than 1 seat if they're lucky.
 
ToxicBunny said:
So I honestly see the Moonshot as something that has some small chance of being successful. It may not unseat the ANC but I do think they have a chance of scaring the living shyte out of the ANC.

This idea from Ace though, its just a farce, I don't even think they'll get enough traction to get more than 1 seat if they're lucky.
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If at all it was possible that all RET parties could unite and be their usual RET vocal selves they could conjure a useful 2.5% of the vote, add those that are not necessarily RET but are sympathetic like UDM, ATM, NFP and AIC, they could have something to bargain with. Question is what happens when the RET gang has their share and the Moonshot has their share, where to next?

You always look very united when you are plotting against someone, it usually unravels as soon you have to sit down and bargain, as we have seen with the DA led coalition that took the metros by storm after the 2021 elections, maybe Ace can succeed to unite them.
 
ToxicBunny said:
Basically look at their shadow ministers to see who they would put forward for those positions initially.
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Sure, that's if they win over 50% of the vote, which they won't.

I'd be interested in knowing who they would appoint to which ministry and portfolio committee across all parties, to see if they really thought this moonshot thing through properly...
 
TheChamp said:
If at all it was possible that all RET parties could unite and be their usual RET vocal selves they could conjure a useful 2.5% of the vote, add those that are not necessarily RET but are sympathetic like UDM, ATM, NFP and AIC, they could have something to bargain with. Question is what happens when the RET gang has their share and the Moonshot has their share, where to next?

You always look very united when you are plotting against someone, it usually unravels as soon you have to sit down and bargain, as we have seen with the DA led coalition that took the metros by storm after the 2021 elections, maybe Ace can succeed to unite them.
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Once the different sides all have their share of the pie, they will largely all fall apart and we'll be up shyte creek basically as everyone jostles for power
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
Sure, that's if they win over 50% of the vote, which they won't.

I'd be interested in knowing who they would appoint to which ministry and portfolio committee across all parties, to see if they really thought this moonshot thing through properly...
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Why would the pick anyone from another party and publish that list until after the results are released?
 
ToxicBunny said:
Why would the pick anyone from another party and publish that list until after the results are released?
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Not saying that they would publish it, I'm just interested in knowing who their choices would be across all their coalition partners...
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
Sure, that's if they win over 50% of the vote, which they won't.

I'd be interested in knowing who they would appoint to which ministry and portfolio committee across all parties, to see if they really thought this moonshot thing through properly...
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There is no Moonshot to speak of currently, so they won't be able to have such a list, even KZN that seems more Moonshot, the DA and IFP still cannot agree on anything.
 
TheChamp said:
There is no Moonshot to speak of currently, so they won't be able to have such a list, even KZN that seems more Moonshot, the DA and IFP still cannot agree on anything.
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Yeah that's kind of the point, if they don't know now then they never will. A coalition at national level will amplify the issues at local level by a few orders of magnitude.

Who do you appoint to run the treasury? Each party will want their guy. Who do you appoint to international relations? Each party has a different foreign policy.

For all the major ministries the DA will argue that the party with the largest share should get it. But they'll be happy to offer up smaller portfolios like fisheries, which the other parties won't be happy with.

Ironically this may also mean that instead of reducing the number of ministries, which we all know needs to happen, they may keep it almost the same in order to have enough positions available to satisfy all coalition partners...
 
Mike Hoxbig said:
Yeah that's kind of the point, if they don't know now then they never will. A coalition at national level will amplify the issues at local level by a few orders of magnitude.

Who do you appoint to run the treasury? Each party will want their guy. Who do you appoint to international relations? Each party has a different foreign policy.

For all the major ministries the DA will argue that the party with the largest share should get it. But they'll be happy to offer up smaller portfolios like fisheries, which the other parties won't be happy with.

Ironically this may also mean that instead of reducing the number of ministries, which we all know needs to happen, they may keep it almost the same in order to have enough positions available to satisfy all coalition partners...
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Thing is each party will want their guy as you say, and the picking of specific people will happen once the results are out and the lay of the land is known now. There is no way any party would "pick" someone from an opposition party to be a minister or anything, that would be admitting defeat to a certain level.
 
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