The SA Politics Thread Part 3

[R13...]

Paywalled.

DA predicts 48% for Gauteng coalition in 2024, but previous results show otherwise | News24

The DA, ActionSA, FF-Plus, IFP, Spectrum National Party and United Independent Movement will hold a two-day meeting in Kempton Park this week.

www.news24.com

Possible but they'd have to work hard:

The ANC clinched the province by 53.20% in the 2019 elections, while the party got 36.06% in the 2021 municipal polls.

But an analysis of election results for the municipal elections in 2021 and the provincial and national elections in 2019 show these political parties combined were far from the 48% mark in Gauteng.

The ANC clinched the province by 53.20% in the 2019 elections, while the party got 36.06% in the 2021 municipal polls.

For a 48% coalition outcome to emerge, the DA would have to grow considerably in its performance in Gauteng - above 30% and for ActionSA to make a more significant mark than it did in 2021.

 

[Oldfut]

Yeah, try not to let it upset you too much.

It doesn't, history of how to destroy an economy for personal gain being made; the ANC thanks you for your (cheaply bought) service.

 

[TheChamp]

The DA's best result in Gauteng, that they still have to surpass was the 2016 result of 37%, that was when the party still believed in growing, now since they have taken a new path of preservation their more natural number is between 25 to 30%, I don't see anything they could have done to surpass that, even their favourite measure of by elections is not working for them in Gauteng.

I feel ActionSA has gone into a lull ever since they submitted to the DA, that was the best chance for growth of the coalition, I doubt they have also done enough to go beyond 10%,IFP will do what IFP has always done in Gauteng, Freedom Front will probably stay where they were since the movement of voters from the DA has stabilized.

The ANC will most definitely get more than the 36% they got, again referring back to 2016, 45% could be their worst result, EFF will still get their 10%, that is already 55%, with the PA still not accounted for, and they will probably get around 2.5%.

 

[Vox Populi Vox Dei]

Possible but they'd have to work hard:

Well surprise, surprise News24 can't even get the basic numbers right.
All they had to do was use the well-sourced Wikipedia page on the SA 2019 election to find the Gauteng provincial vote and not, as quoted above, the proportion of Gautengers who voted for the ANC on the national ballot. The former shows the ANC only achieved a majority in Gauteng by a whisker (50.19 percent).

2019 South African general election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[TheChamp]

Well surprise, surprise News24 can't even get the basic numbers right.
All they had to do was use the well-sourced Wikipedia page on the SA 2019 election to find the Gauteng provincial vote and not, as quoted above, the proportion of Gautengers who voted for the ANC on the national ballot. The former shows the ANC only achieved a majority in Gauteng by a whisker (50.19 percent).

2019 South African general election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yeah, they made a boo boo. Putting that aside, does the Moonshot look like 48% in Gauteng?

 

[Vox Populi Vox Dei]

Yeah, they made a boo boo. Putting that aside, does the Moonshot look like 48% in Gauteng?

Not sure. Gauteng politics is more difficult than other provinces with potentially four parties achieving more than 10 percent. It might rely solely on Action SA's performance in the townships.

 

[ShaunSA]

Paywalled.

DA predicts 48% for Gauteng coalition in 2024, but previous results show otherwise | News24

The DA, ActionSA, FF-Plus, IFP, Spectrum National Party and United Independent Movement will hold a two-day meeting in Kempton Park this week.

www.news24.com

In their dreams

 

[R13...]

Not sure. Gauteng politics is more difficult than other provinces with potentially four parties achieving more than 10 percent. It might rely solely on Action SA's performance in the townships.

Yeah complicated. The DA and ANC lost 3% each from 2014 to 2019. The ANC are expected to possible keep bleeding but, so may the DA. They must just hope that it is their partners who make the gains and no the ANC and EFF.

 

[TheChamp]

Not sure. Gauteng politics is more difficult than other provinces with potentially four parties achieving more than 10 percent. It might rely solely on Action SA's performance in the townships.

That is my feeling as well, it is ActionSA who are supposed to pull their weight, the DA has not had a good time in Gauteng, I honestly don't see where the votes are going to come from for them. They can still realistically improve to the early 30s if they get enough of their supporters to vote, but the have lost a huge chunk of the black voters they had and PA is busy taking all the coloured voters.

I don't understand what the deal is with ActionSA, they wasted a lot of time in a love/hate relationship with the DA, I think they lost some momentum.

 

[Agent67]

It might rely solely on Action SA's performance in the townships.

I'll give it to them. They haven't been doing too badly in GP townships.

Just like DA is making progress in WC and EC townships.

 

[Agent67]

This might be off-topic but I've posted about SRC elections before here so...

UNISA's SRC elections are on. And of course, I intended to go vote (got the link this morning)...

The only people on the National and WC ballot are:

• SASCO and ANCYL (ANC)
• EFF
• ULSA (Unisa Law Students Association)

No sign of any Moonshot members. You'd think they'd field candidates in the country's biggest uni but...

So UNISA will be governed by Doomsday... Nice.

P.S I just ****ing voted for ULSA, because I'm sure as hell not voting for Doomsday...

 

[Agent67]

Three ballot papers will be a first for democratic South Africa during next year's general polls

%%excerpt%% The South African electorate is approaching its seventh democratic election in 2024, one which is being touted as a watershed moment. This election is expected to be tightly contested as the IEC grapples with legislative changes, including three ballot papers, a first for SA.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

So we're gonna have three ballots next year.

1. A provincial ballot
2. A national party PR ballot
3. And a "regional" ballot (where parties and independents have to compete against each other, essentially a weird constituency system based on the provinces).

Parly seats are divided between the National List and the Regional List. Seems ****ing complicated.

 

[TheChamp]

This might be off-topic but I've posted about SRC elections before here so...

UNISA's SRC elections are on. And of course, I intended to go vote (got the link this morning)...

The only people on the National and WC ballot are:

• SASCO and ANCYL (ANC)
• EFF
• ULSA (Unisa Law Students Association)

No sign of any Moonshot members. You'd think they'd field candidates in the country's biggest uni but...

So UNISA will be governed by Doomsday... Nice.

P.S I just ****ing voted for ULSA, because I'm sure as hell not voting for Doomsday...

With Zille's new way of doing things, it's not a surprise that they would not care about Unisa, Tuks sounds more like what they would be interested in. I am sure Unisa is too woke for her.

 

[ShaunSA]

I am sure Unisa is too woke for her.

Is that why they're broke?

 

[TheChamp]

Is that why they're broke?

All votes count.

 

[Agent67]

With Zille's new way of doing things, it's not a surprise that they would not care about Unisa, Tuks sounds more like what they would be interested in.

But none of the Moonshot is on the ballots...

Not just DA. But not ASA or even IFP either...

I am sure Unisa is too woke for her.

Going by what is posted sometimes on myUNISA, etc. They gone into the decolonization meme, which already showed some Doomsday tendencies...

 

[wingnut771]

Three ballot papers will be a first for democratic South Africa during next year's general polls

%%excerpt%% The South African electorate is approaching its seventh democratic election in 2024, one which is being touted as a watershed moment. This election is expected to be tightly contested as the IEC grapples with legislative changes, including three ballot papers, a first for SA.

www.dailymaverick.co.za

So we're gonna have three ballots next year.

1. A provincial ballot
2. A national party PR ballot
3. And a "regional" ballot (where parties and independents have to compete against each other, essentially a weird constituency system based on the provinces).

Parly seats are divided between the National List and the Regional List. Seems ****ing complicated.

Regional and Provincial sounds like they are stuttering as it says the same thing.

What's the difference between a "region" and a "province"?

 

[wingnut771]

This might be off-topic but I've posted about SRC elections before here so...

UNISA's SRC elections are on. And of course, I intended to go vote (got the link this morning)...

The only people on the National and WC ballot are:

• SASCO and ANCYL (ANC)
• EFF
• ULSA (Unisa Law Students Association)

No sign of any Moonshot members. You'd think they'd field candidates in the country's biggest uni but...

So UNISA will be governed by Doomsday... Nice.

P.S I just ****ing voted for ULSA, because I'm sure as hell not voting for Doomsday...

How do you know ULSA isn't doomsday also?

 

[Agent67]

How do you know ULSA isn't doomsday also?

Idek tbh.

I was definitely not going to vote for ANC or EFF, that's for sure...

 

[Agent67]

Regional and Provincial sounds like they are stuttering as it says the same thing.

What's the difference between a "region" and a "province"?

It's rather just a half-arsed (maybe quarter-arsed) way of implementing constituencies and allowing independents to compete...