The SA Politics Thread Part 3

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konfab said:
I wouldn't say just in KZN.

If we see an IFP equivlant of a regional language/culture party cropping up around the Eastern Cape it would be it for the ANC.
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So I would agree if that regional party had cropped up 3 or 4 years ago... So I think 2024 is safe for the ANC in the EC, but if such a party does arrive, then 2029 could be very problematic for them.
 
ToxicBunny said:
If this works even vaguely the way its intended, I think its a given that the ANC will lose their majority in KZN in 2024.
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I don't know. The ANC got 55% in 2019 and 42% in 2021 (local). The DA and IFP together made up 37% in 2021, even less in 2019. The ANC + EFF in 2021 = +50%. Not sure if the IFP and DA can cobble together + 50% next year. The IFP are doing well though 2019 to 2021 they gained 10%. The numbers aren't well translatable because it's national to local.
 
R13... said:
I don't know. The ANC got 55% in 2019 and 42% in 2021 (local). The DA and IFP together made up 37% in 2021, even less in 2019. The ANC + EFF in 2021 = +50%. Not sure if the IFP and DA can cobble together + 50% next year. The IFP are doing well though 2019 to 2021 they gained 10%. The numbers aren't well translatable because it's national to local.
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Yeah I know they're not easily translatable, but the trend does seem to be ANC down, and IFP+DA and most other smaller parties up.

The EFF seems to have plateaued or sliding backwards in the province though.
 
R13... said:
I don't know. The ANC got 55% in 2019 and 42% in 2021 (local). The DA and IFP together made up 37% in 2021, even less in 2019. The ANC + EFF in 2021 = +50%. Not sure if the IFP and DA can cobble together + 50% next year. The IFP are doing well though 2019 to 2021 they gained 10%. The numbers aren't well translatable because it's national to local.
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The EFF will slide backward in KZN in 2024. They are doing horrendously in the local by-elections in the province. It's hard to see EFF appeal in that province in particular outside of university students, who are not reliable voters even in national elections.
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
The EFF will slide backward in KZN in 2024. They are doing horrendously in the local by-elections in the province. It's hard to see EFF appeal in that province in particular outside of university students, who are not reliable voters even in national elections.
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The DA are 2% down over the two elections so this really leans on the IFP doing increasing their 14% from 2019. They would need to take at least 20% from the ANC for the numbers to make sense. So the IFP would be 35% leaving the ANC also at 35%. The DA would need to arrest their own fall and cobble together 15%+1. Doesn't look likely to my uninformed eye.

You should also consider that the IFP are no better at governing than the ANC. They have the same my time to eat attitude. But the ANC losing another province would be good for morale.
 
R13... said:
The DA are 2% down over the two elections so this really leans on the IFP doing increasing their 14% from 2019. They would need to take at least 20% from the ANC for the numbers to make sense. So the IFP would be 35% leaving the ANC also at 35%. The DA would need to arrest their own fall and cobble together 15%+1. Doesn't look likely to my uninformed eye.

You should also consider that the IFP are no better at governing than the ANC. They have the same my time to eat attitude. But the ANC losing another province would be good for morale.
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So I very much have a concern that the IFP are no better than the ANC at governing, but its more the start of a "proper" democracy where a party does actually lose power or have the possibility of losing power every 5 years that is more the aspect I'm after personally...

I think the ANC or the IFP could possibly govern relatively well, if they aren't sitting on their throne going "I'm in power for eternity".
 
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ToxicBunny said:
So I very much have a concern that the IFP are no better than the ANC at governing, but its more the start of a "proper" democracy where a party does actually lose power or have the possibility of losing power every 5 years that is more the aspect I'm after personally...

I think the ANC or the IFP could possibly govern relatively well, if they aren't sitting on their throne going "I'm in power for eternity".
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Would indeed be a fine day in this country when politicians have to live with the consequences of their actions.
 
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