The SA Politics Thread Part 6

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JuliusSeizure said:
Not that i agree with the assumption that the DA is a white party but photos can be misleading. If the ANC/EFF wanted, they could gather a few hundred of their white supporters and try to convey the message that they have a lot of white support.
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The thing is, the photos are not misleading - all evidence points to the DA having the majority of coloured and Indian support in SA. You can't win the WC without a majority of coloureds voting for your party - that point should be obvious.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
Not that i agree with the assumption that the DA is a white party but photos can be misleading. If the ANC/EFF wanted, they could gather a few hundred of their white supporters and try to convey the message that they have a lot of white support.
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Please go gather a few hundred white EFF supporters. This should be fun. The few that there are have become internet memes...
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
The thing is, the photos are not misleading - all evidence points to the DA having the majority of coloured and Indian support in SA. You can't win the WC without a majority of coloureds voting for your party - that point should be obvious.
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DA is definitely not a white party but I think this also alludes to the fact that a disproportionately high amount of their support comes from white people compared to other race groups. Has anyone broken down these stats?

IIRC, they got about 5% of black votes in one of the previous elections.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
DA is definitely not a white party but I think this also alludes to the fact that a disproportionately high amount of their support comes from white people compared to other race groups. Has anyone broken down these stats?

IIRC, they got about 5% of black votes in one of the previous elections.
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Unfortunately not any "stable" stats as SA news organisations cannot afford expensive exit polls like they do in the US and European countries which literally ask people how they vote once they exit the voting station on election day. I do remember seeing some stat that the DA was winning something like over 90% of the white vote and 70% or so of coloured and Indian vote, but Google is coming up blank for me now. I will try to find it later.
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
I do remember seeing some stat that the DA was winning something like over 90% of the white vote and 70% or so of coloured and Indian vote,
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I also remember seeing that their share of the coloured and Indian vote declined in the 2021 LGE. It will be interesting to see if they made gains though also, they will naturally perform worse in LGE as more community centric parties contest who don't contest national elections.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
DA is definitely not a white party but I think this also alludes to the fact that a disproportionately high amount of their support comes from white people compared to other race groups. Has anyone broken down these stats?

IIRC, they got about 5% of black votes in one of the previous elections.
Click to expand...
The DA themselves did that when they fired Maimane, the figure was 4% black, hence the reason they have been stuck at 20%, you can't go anywhere in SA as a political party if you don't appeal to black people.
 

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TheChamp said:
The DA themselves did that when they fired Maimane, the figure was 4% black, hence the reason they have been stuck at 20%, you can't go anywhere in SA as a political party if you don't appeal to black people.
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Awesome that you've finally accepted the report is real, now tell us what the recommendations are...
 
TheChamp said:
The DA themselves did that when they fired Maimane, the figure was 4% black, hence the reason they have been stuck at 20%, you can't go anywhere in SA as a political party if you don't appeal to black people.
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After that review, Zille said that they will be content with being a 20% party and that the focus would be on retaining the "core electorate" i.e white people. That is the reason i am skeptical of anything which predicts significant growth for the DA and believe that they will come out with between 19%-22% of the vote.

Their focus for the last few years has been on bringing back stability and the trust of the core electorate (which they seem to have done to their credit), and not on growth outside the base as was their aim which failed under MM.

They will have a choice to make after JS ends. If they want to maintain the path of stability and play it safe, they could go with Hill-Lewis as leader though I don't see him making inroads outside their traditional base but he will probably keep the base happy. If they want growth, they could go with Pappas as the next leader though you could argue he does not yet have the experience to be leader so it might be a bit of a risk at this point.

Pappas was a former COPE member so he could have some more progressive views which some of the traditional base may not like as well. National leadership is a totally different ball game to regional. If MM stayed within DA Gauteng, he probably would still be popular within the party today.
 
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JuliusSeizure said:
After that review, Zille said that they will be content with being a 20% party and that the focus would be on retaining the "core electorate" i.e white people. That is the reason i am skeptical of anything which predicts significant growth for the DA and believe that they will come out with between 19%-22% of the vote.

Their focus for the last few years has been on bringing back stability and the trust of the core electorate (which they seem to have done to their credit), and not on growth outside the base as was their aim which failed under MM.

They will have a choice to make after JS ends. If they want to maintain the path of stability and play it safe, they could go with Hill-Lewis as leader though I don't see him making inroads outside their traditional base but he will probably keep the base happy. If they want growth, they could go with Pappas as the next leader though you could argue he does not yet have the experience to be leader so it might be a bit of a risk at this point.

Pappas was a former COPE member so he could have some more progressive views which some of the traditional base may not like as well. National leadership is a totally different ball game to regional. If MM stayed within DA Gauteng, he probably would still be popular within the party today.
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It will be too late for them by then, they have made their choice with Zille and have lost what they called the ANC lite support, ActionSA, Bosa, Rise and the other wouod be very happy with that.

They had already made provision for that and already had conditioned their supporters to accept that the DA is better off without the ANC lite support, what they never bargained for is the Gayton factor.
 
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