The SA Politics Thread Part 6

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I think everyone forgets that Cyril doesn't need a coalition to govern. Presidential election is a secret ballot run-off. If you think Julius and Cyril running in the last round means Cyril loses you need to seek professional help. Even if the ANC drops all the way down to 30%.

That said, I'm using an example of Julius to make a point. Cyril will have at least 180 votes in the bag from the first round. Every subsequent round will only see that number increase.

The system we have is built around minority governments being a viable option.
 
Garson007 said:
I think everyone forgets that Cyril doesn't need a coalition to govern. Presidential election is a secret ballot run-off. If you think Julius and Cyril running in the last round means Cyril loses you need to seek professional help. Even if the ANC drops all the way down to 30%.

That said, I'm using an example of Julius to make a point. Cyril will have at least 180 votes in the bag from the first round. Every subsequent round will only see that number increase.

The system we have is built around minority governments being a viable option.
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Any significant drop in the ANC figures will see the knives out for Cyril. So while he might be re-elected it won't be long before he is recalled by his own party

Of course being a loyal comrat he will comply like the spineless sucker that he is
 
Garson007 said:
I think everyone forgets that Cyril doesn't need a coalition to govern. Presidential election is a secret ballot run-off. If you think Julius and Cyril running in the last round means Cyril loses you need to seek professional help. Even if the ANC drops all the way down to 30%.

That said, I'm using an example of Julius to make a point. Cyril will have at least 180 votes in the bag from the first round. Every subsequent round will only see that number increase.

The system we have is built around minority governments being a viable option.
Click to expand...
Haven't looked, but does that mean once elected president he can form a government? I suppose passing stuff would be hard and in this country he'd probably face MONC every two days.
 
R13... said:
Ramaphosa made big/bold promises and after 8/9 years of Zuma letting the Guptas run things it seemed like a welcome change. Ramapuaser unfortunately turned out to be another ANC ideologue.
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So Zap's failed to read the current situation at the time of The New Dawn. In fact it took him ages to read the situation right. Now remind me again how he is part of the "we"?
 
R13... said:
Haven't looked, but does that mean once elected president he can form a government? I suppose passing stuff would be hard and in this country he'd probably face MONC every two days.
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Yes, that's correct. The President has considerable executive power. His cabinet has to come from parliamentary members, but otherwise he is free to choose.

Once established as the way government works in South Africa. I suspect we will see the rules surrounding MONCs to be tightened like a noose so you won't have it in every sitting. That's really up to the speaker though. Which is another interesting election.

We might end up in a situation where the ANC agrees to have a DA speaker, with an ANC president and strengthened rules surrounding MONCs. That's the kind of DA/ANC coalition we're likely to see if it is to happen.

TL;DR. We're not like the Netherlands where you can have a technocratic interim government. Once the first seating of parliament takes place the president must be elected in the same sitting.
 
Garson007 said:
Yes, that's correct. The President has considerable executive power. His cabinet has to come from parliamentary members, but otherwise he is free to choose.

Once established as the way government works in South Africa. I suspect we will see the rules surrounding MONCs to be tightened like a noose so you won't have it in every sitting. That's really up to the speaker though. Which is another interesting election.

We might end up in a situation where the ANC agrees to have a DA speaker, with an ANC president and strengthened rules surrounding MONCs. That's the kind of DA/ANC coalition we're likely to see if it is to happen.

TL;DR. We're not like the Netherlands where you can have a technocratic interim government. Once the first seating of parliament takes place the president must be elected in the same sitting.
Click to expand...
I don't see the ANC giving up speaker, especially not to the DA. The speaker has the power to hold the executive to account and it would not be in the interest of the ANC to have someone like the DA holding them to account.
 
R13... said:
I don't see the ANC giving up speaker, especially not to the DA. The speaker has the power to hold the executive to account and it would not be in the interest of the ANC to have someone like the DA holding them to account.
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Hence strengthened MONC rules as one of the conditions.

I agree that it's unlikely, but is something I see as possible if ANC needs a big partner (under 40%). I actually think the DA would require a lot less than MK or EFF. DA might be happy just holding the speakership.

Again I must reiterate that the ANC does not need a majority coalition to have an ANC president. ANC president for me is a forgone conclusion.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
A possibility is that if ANC gets 45%, they may go into coalition with PA and Uncle Gayton may become a minister. If PA gets 3%, it's on the cards. Gayton looks like he is a skilled negotiator so you can be sure that he will demand something significant in order to go into coalition.

Then, GLM can use Al Jamaah+ a few other smaller alliance partner parties to make up the deficit.
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That's all Gayton cares about.

A vote for PA is a vote for ANC.
 
surface said:
She earned it.
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It's nothing but ageism tbh. Those old toppies and tannies can bloody well stand in the queues like everyone else

Same with the disabled. Demanding equal rights but preferential treatment when it suits them like those stupid feminists
 
R13... said:
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Probably depends on the 'we' he is referring to
 
ShaunSA said:
Any significant drop in the ANC figures will see the knives out for Cyril. So while he might be re-elected it won't be long before he is recalled by his own party

Of course being a loyal comrat he will comply like the spineless sucker that he is
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If they get below 45% and can't govern with PA and Al-Jamahaha, we will get President Mashatile who will govern with EFF and MK. Everyone is skirting around that possibility...
 
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