The SA Politics Thread Part 6

[Agent67]

Quick calc of WC regional parly seats as things now stand (out of 23):

DA gets 12.
ANC gets 4.
PA gets 2.
EFF, CCC, VF+, ACDP, and GOOD (shame) gets 1 each.

 

[TrueSeeker]

Quick calc of WC regional parly seats as things now stand (out of 23):

DA gets 12.
ANC gets 4.
PA gets 2.
EFF, CCC, VF+, ACDP, and GOOD (shame) gets 1 each.

Blue wave in the Western Cape. Nice.

 

[Priapus]

https://www.iol.co.za/weekend-argus/news/da-cape-agulhas-mayor-faces-removal-after-being-found-guilty-of-misconduct-ab826597-86ca-4f45-920f-e8a1bbe1c728

The full story.

Not what I asked you.

 

[Agent67]

Blue wave in the Western Cape. Nice.

So current Parly seats based on WC+NC:

13 for DA.
6 for ANC.
3 for PA.
2 for EFF.
CCC, VF+, ACDP, GOOD 1 each.

 

[3WA]

Ladies and gents... Would it be foolish to hope for a sub-40% ANC?

I just noticed that they went down another 0.2% national.

ANC numbers go up late in the count. This is because districts where people take a long time to count come in last.

 

[Agent67]

ANC numbers go up late in the count. This is because districts where people take a long time to count come in last.

Not this time... At least not past 42%...

 

[Hotfuzz]

If we at 75% count right now the Great Loser Movement will be well under 10 bar worth of votes.

2019


2024

 

[3WA]

Not this time... At least not past 42%...

Yeah, sure, but they aren't gonna dip below 40%.

 

[Agent67]

FS regional seats calc (out of 11):

6 ANC
3 DA
2 EFF

 

[Agent67]

Yeah, sure, but they aren't gonna dip below 40%.

Probably not, no.

 

[Grant]

 

[Agent67]

EC regional seats (out of 25):

17 ANC
4 DA
3 EFF
1 UDM (The General makes it back at the skid of his teeth)

 

[TrueSeeker]

I sort of feel the IFP still has some headroom in KZN.

 

[Agent67]

GP regional seats (out of 48):

16 ANC
14 DA
7 EFF
5 MK
2 ASA
2 VF+

 

[Nom Chompsky]

EC regional seats (out of 25):

17 ANC
4 DA
3 EFF
1 UDM (The General makes it back at the skid of his teeth)

Do you think the vote in PE might shift a seat in favour of the DA? They are only on 48% VDs captured there...

 

[Nom Chompsky]

Sebokeng - township in Emfuleni. One VD. THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER.

2019



2024:

 

[AfricanTech]

The absolute best thing about these results is that the smug arrogance of ANC politicians will be wiped away.

The ANC wasn’t always this arrogant and they are paying for their hubris.

 

[PowerFactor]

If we at 75% count right now the Great Loser Movement will be well under 10 bar worth of votes.

2019
View attachment 1718625

2024
View attachment 1718621

4 million people voted for Helen Zille in 2014. I wonder what happened to all of the voters. The total number is also lower, so we can't say they voted for someone else.

 

[Inertia]

Posters who came out badly from this election: TheChamp, JuliusSeizure, half a point to surface who wasn't as bad as TheChamp with his Panty Lesufi love in but always seems to like his posts.

Posters who came out well from this election: @PrimeSteak, non-voter @Shaun_SA (who predicted the love of uBaba well before polls said), @Inertia who said the DA would surprise on the upside and of course the biggest DA booster, myself.

Full transparency, I overestimated the growth of the DA. I have been disappointed in their national showing.

However, I think it has been absolutely & conclusively proven that as the only party in parliament that has grown since 2019, they have a winning strategy. Stick to merit, no policies based on race AT ALL, focusing on good governance with a clear separation of party and state (amongst others). As long as they stick to these principles and avoid listening to ideologues with no understanding of true economic and political dynamics, they will become the new home of central politics in SA. Is this central home greater than 30% of the electorate? Probably not until it is able to govern nationally for a sustained period and show without doubt that life improves.

Future of SA is very uncertain. There are a bunch of scenarios that spell disaster. I truly have no idea how the 7th parliament is going to look. It's exciting because I've already emigrated so don't have to live thru the disaster scenarios if they play out. For Saffers who can't leave, I sympathize.

 

[Agent67]

Do you think the vote in PE might shift a seat in favour of the DA? They are only on 48% VDs captured there...

Maybe.

Going by my rough estimates on FS, WC, NC, EC and GP, here are regional parly seats so far:

45 ANC
34 DA
14 EFF
5 MK
3 PA
3 VF+
2 ASA
UDM, ACDP, GOOD, CCC 1 each