The Syrian Conflict Thread

[Xarog]

Sorry i don't follow, are you are saying people should have realised he didn't use chemical weapons because such a move is stupid and Assad is not stupid?

I am saying that people generally expect to profit from their actions. If no motive for an act can be established, we should question our premises.

I don't see the connection if so, because Assad's statement comes from Syrian state media, we know what he has said is authentic.

Most politicians play a double game when it comes to what they say publicly versus realpolitik. For all you know Assad is trying to demoralise his enemies into accepting cease-fire conditions more favourable to the Assad regime.

 

[Unhappy438]

It is every bit as valid as statements made by the MSF ...

Really? Ok then

A refugee camp in Syria near the Turkish border was hit by shelling on Saturday, causing a fire to break out and displacing residents who had already fled violence elsewhere in the country.

The camp, located in the northeastern part of the Latakia governorate, was hit by more than 40 missiles, according to activist Ammar Ibrahim, who shared video footage of the attack that showed smoke rising from several fires. Ibrahim said many people were injured, but so far there have been no reports of casualties.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights alleged that forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were responsible for the attack.

https://news.vice.com/article/russi...lling-syrian-refugee-camp-near-turkish-border

 

[OrbitalDawn]

Really? Ok then



https://news.vice.com/article/russi...lling-syrian-refugee-camp-near-turkish-border

Haha.

 

[Unhappy438]

I am saying that people generally expect to profit from their actions. If no motive for an act can be established, we should question our premises.


Most politicians play a double game when it comes to what they say publicly versus realpolitik. For all you know Assad is trying to demoralise his enemies into accepting cease-fire conditions more favourable to the Assad regime.

I don't agree, this isn't some master plan from Assad, this is emotions speaking driven by years of war. This rhetoric wont pressurise the rebels into anything, in fact past history only suggests the opposite.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Really? Ok then

Yes, really. There is a vast difference between saying they are equally valid and saying they are valid at all btw ...

If you prefer you can also say they are equally invalid.

 

[Xarog]

I don't agree, this isn't some master plan from Assad, this is emotions speaking driven by years of war. This rhetoric wont pressurise the rebels into anything, in fact past history only suggests the opposite.

Ok, in that case Assad could be attempting to keep the morale of his troops high. That's warfare propaganda 101.

In fact, Assad would be rather stupid if he wasn't trying to do this.

 

[Unhappy438]

Yes, really. There is a vast difference between saying they are equally valid and saying they are valid at all btw ...

If you prefer you can also say they are equally invalid.

No no, you used SOHR as confirmation of Turkey attacking refugee camps, by your standards its confirmed Assad also attacks refugee camps.

 

[Unhappy438]

Ok, in that case Assad could be attempting to keep the morale of his troops high. That's warfare propaganda 101.

In fact, Assad would be rather stupid if he wasn't trying to do this.

There are far more smarter ways to keep troop morale high.

 

[Xarog]

No no, you used SOHR as confirmation of Turkey attacking refugee camps, by your standards its confirmed Assad also attacks refugee camps.

Actually he was parodying your standards.

 

[Xarog]

There are far more smarter ways to keep troop morale high.

Do you think he's not employing those methods as well?

 

[Unhappy438]

Do you think he's not employing those methods as well?

With the state of the Syrian army? Probably rather poorly.

 

[Unhappy438]

Actually he was parodying your standards.

Hahaha yes of course, i will remember that one next time im caught in a jam. Im just parodying Xarog standards.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

No no, you used SOHR as confirmation of Turkey attacking refugee camps, by your standards its confirmed Assad also attacks refugee camps.

ugh ... do I have to provide the paint by numbers version? I'm merely, and somewhat tongue-in-cheekly, pointing out the similarities between the refugee attacks and the hospital attacks and stating the "fair" thing to do would be to apply the same logic. (note by no means do I believe the logic is valid)

So hospital attacks:
- somewhere in history Syria was allegedly the first to attack a hospital
- every single hospital attack incident since then has been blamed on Syria as a consequence with nothing more than allegations (usually by the MSF) or circumstantial evidence

and refugee attacks:
- somewhere in history Turkey was allegedly the first to attack refugees
- it will only be "fair" now that every single subsequent refugee attack is blamed on Turkey, regardless of the lack of evidence, preferably with allegations from SOHR

The actual pattern is not fitting the pattern that would be "fair" i.e. SOHR now blaming Syria for the latest incident instead of blindly sticking to Turkey, they should learn from MSF to never change their minds ever and to disregard any need for actual evidence

 

[Xarog]

Hahaha yes of course, i will remember that one next time im caught in a jam. Im just parodying Xarog standards.

You do that. I am sure I shall find it highly entertaining.

 

[Nanfeishen]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-assad-idUKKCN0XW0OJ?rpc=401&

Whilst he is supposed to be adhering to terms of a ceasefire, Syria is doomed if it wasnt already.

You do know there is no other solution ?

ISIS controls nearly 50% of Syria , and there is certainly no negotiation whatsoever that can allow them to keep that control.

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_f0vV00q...of-islamic-state-rebel-control_2016-03-31.png

Its either total victory or total defeat, and total defeat is not an option for any sort of peace whatsoever.

 

[Unhappy438]

ugh ... do I have to provide the paint by numbers version? I'm merely, and somewhat tongue-in-cheekly, pointing out the similarities between the refugee attacks and the hospital attacks and stating the "fair" thing to do would be to apply the same logic. (note by no means do I believe the logic is valid)

So hospital attacks:
- somewhere in history Syria was allegedly the first to attack a hospital
- every single hospital attack incident since then has been blamed on Syria as a consequence with nothing more than allegations (usually by the MSF) or circumstantial evidence

and refugee attacks:
- somewhere in history Turkey was allegedly the first to attack refugees
- it will only be "fair" now that every single subsequent refugee attack is blamed on Turkey, regardless of the lack of evidence, preferably with allegations from SOHR

The actual pattern is not fitting the pattern that would be "fair" i.e. SOHR now blaming Syria for the latest incident instead of blindly sticking to Turkey, they should learn from MSF to never change their minds ever and to disregard any need for actual evidence

I know what you're trying to say, but you're wrong. Assad striking hospitals is actually confirmed and its not based on dodgy allegations or circumstantial evidence. He did it right back of the start of the conflict when nobody else was flying jets over Syria.

 

[Unhappy438]

You do know there is no other solution ?

ISIS controls nearly 50% of Syria , and there is certainly no negotiation whatsoever that can allow them to keep that control.

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_f0vV00q...of-islamic-state-rebel-control_2016-03-31.png

Its either total victory or total defeat, and total defeat is not an option for any sort of peace whatsoever.

If there is no other solution then he shouldn't have signed a ceasefire agreement.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

If there is no other solution then he shouldn't have signed a ceasefire agreement.

A temporary agreement though, the various parties could have lots of reasons for agreeing temporarily to something they don't think is feasible in the long run e.g. letting humanitarian aid get to people, treating their wounded, resupplying ammunition to their forces or even getting into position for the final assault without facing enemy fire at the same time ...

 

[Xarog]

I know what you're trying to say, but you're wrong. Assad striking hospitals is actually confirmed and its not based on dodgy allegations or circumstantial evidence. He did it right back of the start of the conflict when nobody else was flying jets over Syria.

Except that other people have also hit hospitals inside Syria...

 

[Dave]

Really? Ok then

The camp, located in the northeastern part of the Latakia governorate, was hit by more than 40 missiles, according to activist Ammar Ibrahim, who shared video footage of the attack that showed smoke rising from several fires.

https://news.vice.com/article/russi...lling-syrian-refugee-camp-near-turkish-border

40 missiles? that sounds more like a ground strike, maybe a Grad style BM-21 or some other form of home made Katyusha (which are popular with most of the forces involved) than an air strike. Iraq, Iran and Syria all have the military version and other groups like Hezbollah and Hamas have made extensive use of them on home built systems.