The Tornadoes, Cyclones, Hurricanes & Typhoons Thread.

Geoff.D said:
The local TD in the channel has moved back over the channel and has gained the status of an official TD now. TD 11 track is here:
View attachment 1021408
Now we wait to see what happens. and what direction it si going to take.
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Models are still uncertain, but at least the center of circulation has become clear, which provides a better starting point for model projections. It is unlikely to have any effect on SA whatsoever, and rainfall will mostly be restricted to coastal and central areas of Mozambique.
 
Gordon_R said:
Models are still uncertain, but at least the center of circulation has become clear, which provides a better starting point for model projections. It is unlikely to have any effect on SA whatsoever, and rainfall will mostly be restricted to coastal and central areas of Mozambique.
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Famous last words. We will wait and see.
 
The green area does not translate into area of influence. It is the uncertainty that exists in the predicted track. The predictions suggest it is going to move away from the coast.
SA is going to feel the effect make no mistake.
Read the fine print warning if you think I am wrong.
And those cold fronts coming up from the south are going to feed this one just like happened with Eloise.
Hopefully short duration but could lead to some intense rainstorms.
 
Geoff.D said:
The green area does not translate into area of influence. It is the uncertainty that exists in the predicted track. The predictions suggest it is going to move away from the coast.
SA is going to feel the effect make no mistake.
Read the fine print warning if you think I am wrong.
And those cold fronts coming up from the south are going to feed this one just like happened with Eloise.
Hopefully short duration but could lead to some intense rainstorms.
Click to expand...

You keep posting the same over-broad and unsubstantiated claims. There is no evidence of significant widespread rain anywhere over SA during the next 5 days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs_precip_day5_africa.html

gfs.t00z.totp.day5.africa.gif
 
Guambe now rated as a MTS. Forecasted track takes it closer to the African coast. Rains of 100 mm expected. Influence will be felt over northern KZN, Swaziland and southern parts of MP.either Gordon or me will post a new pic. I am still not able to get consistent access to the Reunion website.
 
Geoff.D said:
Guambe now rated as a MTS. Forecasted track takes it closer to the African coast. Rains of 100 mm expected. Influence will be felt over northern KZN, Swaziland and southern parts of MP.either Gordon or me will post a new pic. I am still not able to get consistent access to the Reunion website.
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The track will brush the SE coast of Mozambique, but is still within the previous trajectory cone, and will have minimal effects on SA.

trajectoire.png
 
How the Mauritius Weather guys evaluate Guambe, now a STS:
Rare that the weather gurus argue so much about what a TC is going to do.

1613674974835.png1613675173325.png
 
So what now Gordon_R?
Still believe those "models" you have so much faith in?
See the new forecasts for today and the weekend.
 
Mauritius:
Date and Time
19 February 2021 10 AM
Position 24.5°S 36.8°E
Estimated Central Pressure 963 hPa
Movement SW10 km/h
Remarks
Severe tropical storm 'GUAMBE' has intensified into a tropical cyclone during the last hours and is now a tropical cyclone. It is moving in a South-West direction at about 10 km/h.

Therefore at the moment, it is moving closer to the coast of Africa. The TC is covering quite a large area with spill over onto the continent. it IS going to cause rain in parts of SA. And the movement around the TC is not confined to a narrow area just around the TC but covers a wide area. The TC does therefore impact the weather over a much larger area than simply the cone as depicted on the TC forecast plots.
It depends entirely on its movement which is not all that certain yet.

1613731141535.png
The dot is Maputo which approximately on the same latitude as GP.
 
Guambe is rapidly moving away from the coast. Downgraded to a STS after a briefly strengthening to a STC, but expected to again reach STC status before finally dissipating.
We can count ourselves very lucky that it did not stay on its path south westwards. Still we are going to get more rain thanks to this system that was fed into the central parts of the continent.
 
Another TD has formed in the Mozambique channel to the surprise of the weather gurus.
1614973151509.png

On 2 March, a weak tropical disturbance quickly formed within the monsoonal flow in the Mozambique Channel.[146] The weak system slowly became more organized despite moderate wind shear, strengthening to a tropical depression by the next day.[147]
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1614973313898.png
 
TD developed into a full-blown Tropical Cyclone named Iman but moved across Madagascar eastwards passing South of Reunion.
The final report on its one makes for sobering reading:

On 6 March, Réunion was put under a yellow alert, due to the depression.[155] Officials anticipated a brief but intense period of severe weather related to the cyclone.[156] The intense thunderstorms associated with the curved band of Iman passed directly over the island, bringing an unusually powerful lightning storm with over 3,000 estimated lightning strikes occurring.[157][158] Widespread rainfall brought rainfall totals as high as 309 mm (1.01 ft) in Sainte-Rose.[159] Some areas in Saint-Denis were flooded and some trees were uprooted.[160] Over 15,000 people lost power on the island, although around 3,000 had gained electricity again 5 hours later.[161] Source wikipedia
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