The Tornadoes, Cyclones, Hurricanes & Typhoons Thread.

Gordon_R

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The local TD in the channel has moved back over the channel and has gained the status of an official TD now. TD 11 track is here:
View attachment 1021408
Now we wait to see what happens. and what direction it si going to take.

Models are still uncertain, but at least the center of circulation has become clear, which provides a better starting point for model projections. It is unlikely to have any effect on SA whatsoever, and rainfall will mostly be restricted to coastal and central areas of Mozambique.
 

Geoff.D

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Models are still uncertain, but at least the center of circulation has become clear, which provides a better starting point for model projections. It is unlikely to have any effect on SA whatsoever, and rainfall will mostly be restricted to coastal and central areas of Mozambique.
Famous last words. We will wait and see.
 

Gordon_R

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Famous last words. We will wait and see.

The chart that you just posted shows the 95% confidence interval for the models (as at today). If you think its going to behave differently, you must know something the rest of us don't...
 

Gordon_R

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Today's chart predicts an even narrower trajectory cone, right down the middle of the Mozambique Channel:

trajectoire.png
 

Geoff.D

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The green area does not translate into area of influence. It is the uncertainty that exists in the predicted track. The predictions suggest it is going to move away from the coast.
SA is going to feel the effect make no mistake.
Read the fine print warning if you think I am wrong.
And those cold fronts coming up from the south are going to feed this one just like happened with Eloise.
Hopefully short duration but could lead to some intense rainstorms.
 

Gordon_R

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The green area does not translate into area of influence. It is the uncertainty that exists in the predicted track. The predictions suggest it is going to move away from the coast.
SA is going to feel the effect make no mistake.
Read the fine print warning if you think I am wrong.
And those cold fronts coming up from the south are going to feed this one just like happened with Eloise.
Hopefully short duration but could lead to some intense rainstorms.

You keep posting the same over-broad and unsubstantiated claims. There is no evidence of significant widespread rain anywhere over SA during the next 5 days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs_precip_day5_africa.html

gfs.t00z.totp.day5.africa.gif
 

Geoff.D

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Guambe now rated as a MTS. Forecasted track takes it closer to the African coast. Rains of 100 mm expected. Influence will be felt over northern KZN, Swaziland and southern parts of MP.either Gordon or me will post a new pic. I am still not able to get consistent access to the Reunion website.
 

Gordon_R

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Guambe now rated as a MTS. Forecasted track takes it closer to the African coast. Rains of 100 mm expected. Influence will be felt over northern KZN, Swaziland and southern parts of MP.either Gordon or me will post a new pic. I am still not able to get consistent access to the Reunion website.

The track will brush the SE coast of Mozambique, but is still within the previous trajectory cone, and will have minimal effects on SA.

trajectoire.png
 

Geoff.D

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How the Mauritius Weather guys evaluate Guambe, now a STS:
Rare that the weather gurus argue so much about what a TC is going to do.

1613674974835.png 1613675173325.png
 

Geoff.D

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So what now Gordon_R?
Still believe those "models" you have so much faith in?
See the new forecasts for today and the weekend.
 

Gordon_R

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So what now Gordon_R?
Still believe those "models" you have so much faith in?
See the new forecasts for today and the weekend.

I have no idea what you are on about. A tropical cyclone in the Mozambique Channel cannot 'cause' rain in SA.

trajectoire.png
 

Geoff.D

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Mauritius:
Date and Time
19 February 2021 10 AM
Position 24.5°S 36.8°E
Estimated Central Pressure 963 hPa
Movement SW10 km/h
Remarks
Severe tropical storm 'GUAMBE' has intensified into a tropical cyclone during the last hours and is now a tropical cyclone. It is moving in a South-West direction at about 10 km/h.

Therefore at the moment, it is moving closer to the coast of Africa. The TC is covering quite a large area with spill over onto the continent. it IS going to cause rain in parts of SA. And the movement around the TC is not confined to a narrow area just around the TC but covers a wide area. The TC does therefore impact the weather over a much larger area than simply the cone as depicted on the TC forecast plots.
It depends entirely on its movement which is not all that certain yet.

1613731141535.png
The dot is Maputo which approximately on the same latitude as GP.
 

Geoff.D

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Guambe is rapidly moving away from the coast. Downgraded to a STS after a briefly strengthening to a STC, but expected to again reach STC status before finally dissipating.
We can count ourselves very lucky that it did not stay on its path south westwards. Still we are going to get more rain thanks to this system that was fed into the central parts of the continent.
 
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