The Tornadoes, Cyclones, Hurricanes & Typhoons Thread.

Geoff.D said:
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Inntesnifying and concentrating.
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Not likely to intensify:
Filling Low n°09 :
Position at 1030UTC: 16.2S/70.4E
Estimated minimum pressure: 1006hPa
Max wind over 10 minutes: 20/25kt, reaching 30kt quite far from the center in the southern quadrant due to gradient effect.
Current movement: West-North-West at 14kt
Over the next days, model guidance forecasts that unfavorable conditions will persist while drifting westward, which will continue to keep it weak or even make it weaker. Equatorial convergence is expected to remain quite weak preventing from any significant risk of deepening. Early next week, the low will probably merge with the MT, and so dissipate.

Over the next five days, there is no risk of a moderate tropical storm forming in our basin.
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Source: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/index.html
 
No one is tracking it anymore. BUT it is still there! The TD no longer meets the criteria to make it necessary to track it.
 
The next one:
Started as a small disturbance, written off by most of the weather gurus and then started intensifying into a full-blown Intense Tropical Cyclone, Currently confines to a small area.

1612693965555.png
 
Faraji now the first Very Intense Tropical Cyclone of the season. Still very much sticking to its predicted track confined to a small area.

1612824013668.png1612824057764.png
 
The latest on Faraji:

Expected to be downgraded to a TD. The track is forecast through to the 17th.

1613153798191.png
 
Gordon_R said:
Very few sailors in small boats go into the southern Indian Ocean. Those that do are well equipped with weather warnings, and able to deal with 30kt winds.
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Geoff.D said:
Fish = sailors in small boats
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Waves seem to be in the 3-5m range south of the eye. No clue if that's high or not for a "small" boat.
Can either of you confirm if that height is accurate? I assume you guys might have some other site.
That's using the map I linked above, data as of 3PM.
 
Gordon_R said:
A sub-tropical storm (not a cyclone) will develop in the Mozambique Channel this week: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/gfs_mslp_precip_safrica.html

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In fact IF one looks at the track of TD 09, it is clear where this storm in the channel comes from. And it is already a storm not developing or will develop. It s a real pity that unless Reunion keeps track of these things we just don't have any local knowledge of events in the channel. SAWS however did appear to be interested as their weather forecasts showed the storm influencing our weather from Friday, all through the weekend.

In the official Cyclone area, this "storm" rates a lowly rating of "other storms".
 
Geoff.D said:
In fact IF one looks at the track of TD 09, it is clear where this storm in the channel comes from. And it is already a storm not developing or will develop. It s a real pity that unless Reunion keeps track of these things we just don't have any local knowledge of events in the channel. SAWS however did appear to be interested as their weather forecasts showed the storm influencing our weather from Friday, all through the weekend.

In the official Cyclone area, this "storm" rates a lowly rating of "other storms".
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Meteo.fr/La Reunion has a daily update:
Overland depression in the South of Mozambique:
At 0930 UTC, the overland depression is centered around 22.1°S and 33.4°E. This low is expected to remain over land in the Southern region of Mozambique until tomorrow. On Tuesday, the southerly wind behind a front will progress towards the South of Mozambique and will supply moisture to the low pressure system already in place. This will contribute to generate disturbed weather, including heavy rains (50 to 100 mm/12h) over a large part of the southern region of the channel and until the end of the period. In the medium range, it is likely that the overland depression will return on sea, and may define a potential cyclogenesis. The risk is moderate for the moment.

Development of a moderate tropical storm over the southern part of the channel is moderate from Wednesday onwards.
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Geoff.D said:
Ja they have kept tabs on the storm. Rating yesterday was "low" that it would veer back over water and hence develop into a tropical storm. Today's bulletin has changed to moderate.
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I checked 3 model runs this morning, and they were all different. Predicting the detailed development of a tropical low is almost impossible.
 
The local TD in the channel has moved back over the channel and has gained the status of an official TD now. TD 11 track is here:
1613468578784.png
Now we wait to see what happens. and what direction it si going to take.
 
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Notice the predicted progression, from currently a weak low to a full-blown Cyclone by the 20th!
 
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