The Tornadoes, Cyclones, Hurricanes & Typhoons Thread.

The latest forecast shows incredible amounts of rain on Reunion (400mm+) on Mon 15th. It is a volcanic island and the orographic effect of the steep mountain slopes will enhance the already heavy rainfall of a tropical cyclone:
 
TC 02S has officially been named Belal. The long-term trajectory is quite curved, with somewhat slower passage, and affecting both Reunion and Mauritius in the same track!

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TC Belal is expected to pass directly over the island of Reunion later today (Mon 15th). The extended track shows a recurve, with the cyclone potentially reversing track later in the week (although no direct threat to land).

trajectoire[Belal_20240115_0700].png

Source: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/index.html
 
Flooding reported, but wind damage not as bad as expected:
One person was killed in Réunion, where the population of some 860,000 people was ordered to shelter at home, but authorities said the eye of the storm had avoided the island.

Around a quarter of households on the island had no electricity on Monday.
The storm has already brought driving rain to Mauritius, with pictures and video posted to social media showing vehicles being submerged or washed away.
 
The trouble with tropical storms in the channel is their unpredictability as already seen by the way this one is moving back and forth. The storm could just as easily move further south or even inland. Will need watching.
 
The trouble with tropical storms in the channel is their unpredictability as already seen by the way this one is moving back and forth. The storm could just as easily move further south or even inland. Will need watching.
Already checking in with my macadamia farmer friend in Hazyview....
 
Except of course if it were to cross over into the channel instead .... Generally though, their projections are pretty spot on.
 
Except of course if it were to cross over into the channel instead .... Generally though, their projections are pretty spot on.

The latest update (10am on Thurs 28th) shows it crossing over land, and then veering back again (as a very weak remnant).

trajectoire[Gamane_20240328_1000].png
 
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