The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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what has caused this sudden movement with the rand.
i've been watching the zar / usd fluctuation like a hawk for the last month, but have paid no attention to the cause
 
grantza said:
what has caused this sudden movement with the rand.
i've been watching the zar / usd fluctuation like a hawk for the last month, but have paid no attention to the cause
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US job data figures supposedly look better - which probably means less people are looking for employment and are not counted as unemployed. This means more money to be invested in US economy and out of emerging markets because they're sure to provide a better ROI.

In addition they may hike rates more which means more better ROI in the US.

Never mind our own worsening economy which is not going to get better.
 
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Midnight_choir_drunk said:
Not to mention it makes South Africa a really cheap destination to travel to right now, which boosts tourism and again is good for the economy.

A strong Rand seriously hurts our competitiveness. Only an idiot would want that.
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Have to come back to this one after I gained a bit of education in all this.

Your above statement is wrong sadly. A weak Rand is the absolute last thing we needed.

( Don't worry I also didn't fully understand at the time)
 
The theory is that a weaker rand promotes the export industry and encourages tourism.
Unfortunately that is only true right now for tourism. Our export industry is shot and not able to take advantage of the weaker Rand.
In the long run a weaker Rand is not that good for our economy until we can build up our exports and get good prices for our commodities.
 
Garyvdh said:
The theory is that a weaker rand promotes the export industry and encourages tourism.
Unfortunately that is only true right now for tourism.
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Even tourism. If the tourism industry needs to import buses, air cons, etc. they will need the expensive Dollar. And tourism is not doing so well right now given the worldwide economic slow down.

Our export industry is shot and not able to take advantage of the weaker Rand.
In the long run a weaker Rand is not that good for our economy until we can build up our exports and get good prices for our commodities.
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We can probably only benefit from a good demand for gold but since we have no power to mine gold we are SOLed.
 
Midnight_choir_drunk said:
Not to mention it makes South Africa a really cheap destination to travel to right now, which boosts tourism and again is good for the economy.

A strong Rand seriously hurts our competitiveness. Only an idiot would want that.
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It's a false choice between a strong Rand, something like R3-4 to the Dollar and the toilet paper we have now at >12 to the Dollar. And it will ONLY GET WORSE. There is no way, there is nothing we can do to improve this. ESKOM have sat on their a--es for decades. SARS wants to tax us to death. Our workers aren't better than foreign workers but are more spoilt, more unionised and more likely to strike and demand unrealistic wages. We are screwed and the Rand will only head one way in general-- DOWN. You will look at 12 and think back how good these times were, when we're sitting at 15-16 to the USD.

Oh but then we'll be swamped with tourists.... we'll perhaps we'll have some Vietnamese and Chinese tourists swamping our shores resistant to the prospects of ever increasing crime and blackouts.
 
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A weaker rand is only good if we don't have a trade deficit. Last year's total was in deficit... Of R 95 billion. So no, weak rand bad. Not good.
 
The problem with SA is we export RAW materials out and then we buy them back more expensive in processed form.

We do not have the intellect to use our own abundance of raw materials and manufacture end products.

Instead we export it, let other more advanced countries manufacture it, then we buy back the end product ay ridiculous prices.
 
Thor187 said:
The problem with SA is we export RAW materials out and then we buy them back more expensive in processed form.

We do not have the intellect to use our own abundance of raw materials and manufacture end products.

Instead we export it, let other more advanced countries manufacture it, then we buy back the end product ay ridiculous prices.
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It's not that we don't have the intellect. We don't have the tech or the money. Also we're far from the end markets. We don't have the infrastructure and workforce either. As said our workers like to strike. Do you hear about Chinese or Vietnamese workers striking?

Occasionally maybe a few issues at Foxconn, but nothing lasting weeks or months etc.

Our workers have to compete with the Chinese, Vietnamese and Thais. If they don't -- we're out of luck. We still make a few cars here, but even reading up the likes of Singaporean car forums, those guys put the fact that some beemers and Mercs are made in SA down to a liability. Our workers have to look to Chinese workers as an example.
 
we taking about the weaker rand will promote the tourist industry? no way .......when the crime rate of south africa on its peak. our image worldwide is not that good any more.....
 
XTM said:
we taking about the weaker rand will promote the tourist industry? no way .......when the crime rate of south africa on its peak. our image worldwide is not that good any more.....
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Not only that but some will blame the economic decline and weak Rand on colonialism and even racism.
 
XTM said:
we taking about the weaker rand will promote the tourist industry? no way .......when the crime rate of south africa on its peak. our image worldwide is not that good any more.....
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Tourism doesn't matter if our total trade is in deficit. Tourism is included in the deficit calculation, and it is tiny. Not at the computer now but I'd hazard a guess that our defecit per capita per gdp is one of the worst in the world.
 
Thor187 said:
Jan van Nkandla is to blame...
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:)

Until we sort out the whole indignization issue - masked as tranformation and called BBBEE, the Rand is doomed.

FDI not gonna happen. Its easier to buy the raw materials here, beneficiate in China and re export to SA.

Jobs arent created in SA, economy slows as Nene pointed out, ass falls out of the Rand.
 
agentrfr said:
Tourism doesn't matter if our total trade is in deficit. Tourism is included in the deficit calculation, and it is tiny. Not at the computer now but I'd hazard a guess that our defecit per capita per gdp is one of the worst in the world.
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Correct, we export primary materials, and import tertiary products (bar motor industry but we still get scr.... on this),
even in our primary product exports, labor unrest and inefficiencies compared to the rest of Africa, let alone the rest of the world will doom us I believe.
A weak ZAR benefits me personally, but I fear it is bad as a complete picture for the country.
 
I still maintain the cANCer govmt artificially weaken the Rand when the petrol price drops. They just lose out too much. Oil is below $60 a barrel again, so lets devalue the Rand so we can keep pump prices high. fahrkers!!!
 
Drifter said:
I still maintain the cANCer govmt artificially weaken the Rand when the petrol price drops. They just lose out too much. Oil is below $60 a barrel again, so lets devalue the Rand so we can keep pump prices high. fahrkers!!!
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Whomever it is, someone is making sure a trend that started in 2012 stays.
 
Drifter said:
I still maintain the cANCer govmt artificially weaken the Rand when the petrol price drops. They just lose out too much. Oil is below $60 a barrel again, so lets devalue the Rand so we can keep pump prices high. fahrkers!!!
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How does that help the ANC or government? The tax of fuel is based per litre, not per rand. Unless you think that the plan is to drive up input costs, to drive up consumer costs, to increase vat revenue, I don't see your reasoning. This wouldn't really work, as people would reduce spending not increase it to match higher prices.
 
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