The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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R13... said:
Why are you forecasting junk status in June/July? We are two notches above junk with Moodys and one above with the other two rating agencies. Have S&P and Fitch indicated a review in June/July?
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It's the consensus by most economists,,see SA’s credit rating to be cut to junk this year. The thing that you must remember is that the currency price has little to do with GDP outlook/growth and even if they managed to turn it around, the time needed for it to make the rating agency not push for junk status (readings take time, we already at the end/final year of the rating period) make it unlikely for a different outcome.

Interesting time ahead.. I wonder though what impact it will have on currency, from what i've seen very little tho as it gets adjusted ahead. The current buoyancy is because its unlikely the US hikes rates for now..
 
krycor said:
It's the consensus by most economists,,see SA’s credit rating to be cut to junk this year. The thing that you must remember is that the currency price has little to do with GDP outlook/growth and even if they managed to turn it around, the time needed for it to make the rating agency not push for junk status (readings take time, we already at the end/final year of the rating period) make it unlikely for a different outcome.

Interesting time ahead.. I wonder though what impact it will have on currency, from what i've seen very little tho as it gets adjusted ahead. The current buoyancy is because its unlikely the US hikes rates for now..
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Yep, its too little too late. The trend for the last 18months shows a constant outflow of funds from SA. People with money are moving it offshore, in volumes. The risk locally is just too high for most people.
 
I have a R25 000 lumpsum coming available in May to invest. Thinking of putting that into R denominated foreign fund. Then recurring payments into that fund as well...

Better to put money over while its rising, it will eventually fall again
 
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krycor said:
It's the consensus by most economists,,see SA’s credit rating to be cut to junk this year. The thing that you must remember is that the currency price has little to do with GDP outlook/growth and even if they managed to turn it around, the time needed for it to make the rating agency not push for junk status (readings take time, we already at the end/final year of the rating period) make it unlikely for a different outcome.

Interesting time ahead.. I wonder though what impact it will have on currency, from what i've seen very little tho as it gets adjusted ahead. The current buoyancy is because its unlikely the US hikes rates for now..
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Consensus or hope? I've been getting the feeling lately that many are actively pushing for a downgrade and the fear mongering that goes with it.

Lupus said:
Sssh you scared it, back up to 14.22 :-)
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Lol when people start talking about a less than 0.3% difference. :D
 
Swa said:
Consensus or hope? I've been getting the feeling lately that many are actively pushing for a downgrade and the fear mongering that goes with it.


Lol when people start talking about a less than 0.3% difference. :D
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If you're trading money, that 0.3% difference is quite huge.
 
Swa said:
Consensus or hope? I've been getting the feeling lately that many are actively pushing for a downgrade and the fear mongering that goes with it.
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I don't think people are hoping though, i think many expect it as the empirical data says you should. The guys hoping are the ones not expecting it OR those that believe that we hit the bottom of the commodity cycle. The latter is anyones guess and the latest rebound is in part due to this too. So if you look at Brazil, Australia, South Africa and Canada even.. you will see the curves look very similar and the only exceptions are the additional local impact.

As I said before, Aus for e.g. is only not suffering because they transformed more of their economy unlike SA. Anyway.. till S&P release a no change i'm a bit cautious.. that and the local elections.
 
supersunbird said:
I have a R25 000 lumpsum coming available in May to invest. Thinking of putting that into R denominated foreign fund. Then recurring payments into that fund as well...

Better to put money over while its rising, it will eventually fall again
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If you want to "put money over" then why not use a foreign denominated fund?

reactor_sa said:
Yep, its too little too late. The trend for the last 18months shows a constant outflow of funds from SA. People with money are moving it offshore, in volumes. The risk locally is just too high for most people.
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Yip - had two of my expat friends tell me today they're moving money out of ZAR because of the current rate is good. A lot of them have money both sides though so they move it back & forth depending on the FX more than "money fleeing from SA".
 
HavocXphere said:
If you want to "put money over" then why not use a foreign denominated fund?


Yip - had two of my expat friends tell me today they're moving money out of ZAR because of the current rate is good. A lot of them have money both sides though so they move it back & forth depending on the FX more than "money fleeing from SA".
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Cause I don't have R150 000 or whatever it is (you know, minimum amounts in $s)...
 
supersunbird said:
Cause I don't have R150 000 or whatever it is (you know, minimum amounts in $s)...
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They're not as high as you seem to think. UK TD direct is at like 2k zar. Not sure about the intl one...they'll likely make you use that...but I assume its similar in scale.

The minimums vary wildly by platform...investec uk wanted like 2 bar ZAR I think (lol). Obviously slightly different service too.

Bigger issue is the fees...they're comparatively high so thats more a limitation on the minimum.
 
Ockie said:
Seems the recent gains is being wiped out again. :(
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I wouldn't say wiped out, the markets are waiting on the US Fed decision or statement on rates being increased or not. Should they not increase or at least say they are leaning towards that decision for later this year, the Rand will appreciate again IMO
 
sox63 said:
I wouldn't say wiped out, the markets are waiting on the US Fed decision or statement on rates being increased or not. Should they not increase or at least say they are leaning towards that decision for later this year, the Rand will appreciate again IMO
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Mmmm I hope so. The oil price is gaining strength, and last week the guy on 702 said if the Rand does not keep up with gaining strength also compared to oil, we are going to be in for a major blow.
 
Ockie said:
Mmmm I hope so. The oil price is gaining strength, and last week the guy on 702 said if the Rand does not keep up with gaining strength also compared to oil, we are going to be in for a major blow.
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Just a couple more days to go till Janet Yellen would make the statement, so some volatility till then
 
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