The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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NarrowBandFtw said:
No further Fed hikes in 2016, I'll put money on that bet, who's in?
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Whether it actually happens or not is less consequential. It's that there's a sentiment that it COULD happen that seems to be enough to buoy the USD, which in turn means it will outperform the Rand. The Rand has already retreated over night against the USD (although to be fair, against all currencies), and investors will only get more jumpy as we approach the credit ratings outcome later this year.
 
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Denouncer said:
Whether it actually happens or not is less consequential. It's that there's a sentiment that it COULD happen
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You are exactly right, and that sentiment is changing to it WON'T happen. The Fed has cried wolf a billion times, the sentiment is shifting away from just blindly believing their hints.
 
NarrowBandFtw said:
You are exactly right, and that sentiment is changing to it WON'T happen. The Fed has cried wolf a billion times, the sentiment is shifting away from just blindly believing their hints.
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To be fair, there's been a lot of negative data coming out of the US this year which has halted their plans to hike rates, but you're right, the sentiment is shifting. But we still get the ripple effect our side whenever something is mentioned, since the Rand is so volatile.
 
Denouncer said:
Whether it actually happens or not is less consequential. It's that there's a sentiment that it COULD happen that seems to be enough to buoy the USD, which in turn means it will outperform the Rand. The Rand has already retreated over night against the USD (although to be fair, against all currencies), and investors will only get more jumpy as we approach the credit ratings outcome later this year.
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Which is why they tried to keep up appearances. The sentiment was that it would happen incrementally over 4 quarters. Even if it happens now the effect would not be as great unless it's one large hike.
 
Dollar weakened after the FOMC meeting minutes ,FED banking will probably not be hiking the interest rates.
 
13.95 - because Hawks.

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/arti...nd-others-to-present-themselves/#.V7xyZjXzIWx

The Hawks are again circling Pravin Gordhan as well as four SARS officials, former Deputy Commissioner Ivan Pillay, Group Executive Johann van Loggerenberg, spokesperson Adrian Lackay and initial head of the investigative unit, Andries van Rensburg, who have all been ordered to report to the Hawks in Pretoria on Thursday for warning statements.
 
naeem said:
13.95 - because Hawks.

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/arti...nd-others-to-present-themselves/#.V7xyZjXzIWx

The Hawks are again circling Pravin Gordhan as well as four SARS officials, former Deputy Commissioner Ivan Pillay, Group Executive Johann van Loggerenberg, spokesperson Adrian Lackay and initial head of the investigative unit, Andries van Rensburg, who have all been ordered to report to the Hawks in Pretoria on Thursday for warning statements.
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Uhm, no. If it was really that, the drop would have been more pronounced. This is just markets expecting that Janet Yellen will hint or confirm a US FED rates hike on Friday.
 
sox63 said:
Uhm, no. If it was really that, the drop would have been more pronounced. This is just markets expecting that Janet Yellen will hint or confirm a US FED rates hike on Friday.
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possibly, but that sharp dropped corresponded with that Hawk announcement. I thought our drop to 13.6ish was due to pending US rate announcement


Anyway, wonder if the US will raise rates. Probably by .5 or .25 to play it safe?


Surprised our ZAR hardly flinched at news of DA taking over JHB and other metros.
 
naeem said:
possibly, but that sharp dropped corresponded with that Hawk announcement. I thought our drop to 13.6ish was due to pending US rate announcement


Anyway, wonder if the US will raise rates. Probably by .5 or .25 to play it safe?


Surprised our ZAR hardly flinched at news of DA taking over JHB and other metros.
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No idea if they will to be honest. I wonder if their elections will play a role as well? But the FED is supposed to be independent, so we'll see. I don't think they will
 
I take back my comments on it not being the reason, 3% is a massive jolt and that news could be the only reason
 
The pound also jumped back to over 18,the euro almost back at 16. Last week was looking good :(
 
Just waited for the election to be over before starting their **** again.

I think I'll be buying that GPU next week and not wait for the rand to improve.
 
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