The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[Swa]

So since it seems the negative outlook was factored in, do you guys think we will remain at current ZAR strength for the short term? Or a gradual decline?

Then a big knock in 3 months when Moody's actually do downgrade us? And if so, by how much?

How do we know this? They always make these announcements after most markets are closed. Usually these things are partly factored in based on the likelihood.

 

[Swa]

Seems the market was in fact expecting a downgrade.

 

[genetic]

Seems the market was in fact expecting a downgrade.

It was priced in ages back.

 

[Swa]

It was priced in ages back.

Yeah that's my point. They priced in a downgrade so now that there isn't one the Rand is strengthening.

 

[Jopie Fourie]

Agreed. Any decision by Moody's was already priced into the market in 2017, when Fitch and S&P downgraded the country. Moody's is currently the laughingstock of the investment world and very few investment houses actually pays attention to them. Most follow the two leading agencies.

I do, however, suspect that the Rand will now start a gradual decline against the Dollar. As it becomes more clear that there is no more room to fix the country's finances, and the ANC's hands have been tied by themselves, more outflows can be expected. The outflows will most likely be accelerated by talks of nationalizing the SARB, NHI, Appropriations and EWC. This will place the Rand under more pressure.

In addition to this, government will now find it even harder to get loans to run the country. They have already struggled with this, but with a Moody's negative outlook, even less will now be available to them. I do not even think a Moody's actual downgrade is necessary any longer.

 

[BBSA]

The US Dollar to South African Rand exchange rate on each of the days the Springboks won the Rugby World Cup:

1995 3.64
2007 6.82
2019 15.06

 

[satanboy]

 

[BBSA]

Well the US FED have decided to continue their daily repurchase agreement, or repo, operations, offering at least $75 billion a day in daily cash injections through Nov. 4.

So much for it being a few days only hey. People still want to claim everything is fine? I reckon the music has stopped playing and those in the know are moving to the seats while the others are still humming along without the music..

 

[MirageF1]

Update: Courtesy of the ANC and Eskom mismanagement just this week alone..3% drop and LS has not ended...
We should be hitting 20 to 1 well in time for Xmas jingles..

There goes my current Forex txfer in sy moer.

 

[Swa]

Yeah over R14.80/$ again. We were heading for sub R14.60. Bitcoin better drop so I can lock in that Christmas bonus.

 

[MirageF1]

Yeah over R14.80/$ again. We were heading for sub R14.60. Bitcoin better drop so I can lock in that Christmas bonus.

History books are replete with weres....
Might have to bank now and take the knock before it cripples more than a leg.

 

[Anony-mousse]

Thinking the same, was supposed to do a USD payment and was hoping it would stabilize somewhere around 14.60, didn’t consider Eskom in my gamble. FML.

 

[Swa]

Everyone is always talking about that R20/$. Well if Eskom hits dirt we can be lucky if it stops at R50/$. How to screw up a country 101. But hey, Malema thinks exchange rates and junk status are just colonial concepts!

 

[rietrot]

Everyone is always talking about that R20/$. Well if Eskom hits dirt we can be lucky if it stops at R50/$. How to screw up a country 101. But hey, Malema thinks exchange rates and junk status are just colonial concepts!

Current eskom problems are already priced in. I'm not sure what you mean by eskom hits the dirt. They are pretty much rock-bottom for a semi functional company making billions in losses.

Eskom can not really fail completely

 

[Swa]

Current eskom problems are already priced in. I'm not sure what you mean by eskom hits the dirt. They are pretty much rock-bottom for a semi functional company making billions in losses.

Eskom can not really fail completely

You have high optimism.

 

[rietrot]

You have high optimism.

Realism. But living through a zombie apocalypse in the case of eskom completely failing could be interesting.

 

[ɹǝuuᴉM]

The Rand is already undervalued to the extreme! It should be around 9 to the USD but it is closer to 15. That much for the world believing in the South African government. In ideal circumstances, a slightly undervalued currency is good but when it comes to Africa...

 

[ScottulusMaximus]

The Rand is already undervalued to the extreme! It should be around 9 to the USD but it is closer to 15. That much for the world believing in the South African government. In ideal circumstances, a slightly undervalued currency is good but when it comes to Africa...

You need Jesus...

 

[JayM]

$1=R14.21. What's behind the recovery?

 

[Pho3nix]

$1=R14.21. What's behind the recovery?

Saw an article about this earlier. Will look for you