The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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MirageF1

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JayM said:
$1=R14.21. What's behind the recovery?
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Improved confidence rating announced earlier today I believe.
At any rate that's the fastest the R/£ has moved from 19.5 top 18.5 in decades.



Shows you what a more + perception can do to the markets...
 

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Swa

Swa

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This has been going for over a week. Whatever it is has nothing to do with SA.
 
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JayM

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MirageF1 said:
Improved confidence rating announced earlier today I believe.
At any rate that's the fastest the R/£ has moved from 19.5 top 18.5 in decades.



Shows you what a more + perception can do to the markets...
Click to expand...

GBP move is mostly due to the Conservatives' game of chicken with the EU. Which the markets know they'll lose.
 
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krycor

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Swa said:
This has been going for over a week. Whatever it is has nothing to do with SA.
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Brexit is definitely coming so pound will weaken. Lots to be sorted there.

US market is bracing for a bad year next year with the double whammy of impeachment non-trial (tho this is gonna like zuma no confidence), elections and how little time there will be to sort the trade wars out. Add on Boeing issues and US picture looks for a fall.. so I suspect people moving to predictable risk vs impending stagnation or recession in the US.

From that pov, SA is a bit more of a known quantity.. dirty laundry on the line for all to see and despite the pessimists here we are actually moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction sort of. There is money to made when fixing is on the cards and watch dogs patrolling so to speak.
 
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MirageF1

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Swa said:
This has been going for over a week. Whatever it is has nothing to do with SA.
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Not the £...^^^^ graph clearly shows that.
Only the last 2 days since UK Parliament reopened and Boris playing Mr Tough again.
 
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krycor

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Btw the US is heavily dependent on a good H1 (Q1&2) result due to elections etc

So if that 1st half is bad it will be interesting. Another factor for strengthening is the Christmas shopping is with no tariff increases for now which helps. But the brutal truth is their manufacturing sector is struggling.
 
Swa

Swa

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krycor said:
Brexit is definitely coming so pound will weaken. Lots to be sorted there.

US market is bracing for a bad year next year with the double whammy of impeachment non-trial (tho this is gonna like zuma no confidence), elections and how little time there will be to sort the trade wars out. Add on Boeing issues and US picture looks for a fall.. so I suspect people moving to predictable risk vs impending stagnation or recession in the US.

From that pov, SA is a bit more of a known quantity.. dirty laundry on the line for all to see and despite the pessimists here we are actually moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction sort of. There is money to made when fixing is on the cards and watch dogs patrolling so to speak.
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Everyone knows impeachment will not happen with the higher house blocking it next year. The main factor is the US-China trade war which like usual the U.S. will go back on their agreement again and markets will take a tumble again. Rand isn't strong, it's just less weaker than usual. It's still extremely weak compared to most currencies and our situation is still one where the worst is not behind us.
 
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MirageF1

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R reached 18.2 earlier today, has weakened slightly to 18.35 .. but still strongest it's been against £ in over 3 months.

So much for prophets of doom claiming 20+ by end of 2019.
£ still going to take another battering next year with post Brexit before R finally breaches the 20 mark.
 
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krycor

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Chris_the_Brit said:
FFS.

Converted quite a few Rands to dollars when investing in US shares on Easy Equities when it was around R15/dollar at the end of November. :X3:
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Why most people have made a loss taking money out of SA.. it’s always done at the wrong time and growth and inflation goes hand in hand.
 
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John Tempus

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MirageF1 said:
R reached 18.2 earlier today, has weakened slightly to 18.35 .. but still strongest it's been against £ in over 3 months.

So much for prophets of doom claiming 20+ by end of 2019.
£ still going to take another battering next year with post Brexit before R finally breaches the 20 mark.
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Global markets are feeling the pain of lower investments, people are gambling on cr@ppy markets ahum I mean emerging markets yet again ie. straight up gambling hoping to make back losses they incurred on the more stable markets.

Don't look at any of the rand "strengthening" as a factor of our economy doing better. It is simply forex traders doubling down on markets they perceive bottomed out and for what its worth no better than picking a roulette number at this point and just hedging until your number hopefully hits.

Investors/traders with huge bankrolls feel burned out in the stable markets and looking for potentially bigger scores at greater risk. This scenario played out pretty similar in the 2007-2009 period and we know what was the fallout back then.

Shuffle up and deal!
 
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Swa

Swa

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John Tempus said:
Global markets are feeling the pain of lower investments, people are gambling on cr@ppy markets ahum I mean emerging markets yet again ie. straight up gambling hoping to make back losses they incurred on the more stable markets.

Don't look at any of the rand "strengthening" as a factor of our economy doing better. It is simply forex traders doubling down on markets they perceive bottomed out and for what its worth no better than picking a roulette number at this point and just hedging until your number hopefully hits.

Investors/traders with huge bankrolls feel burned out in the stable markets and looking for potentially bigger scores at greater risk. This scenario played out pretty similar in the 2007-2009 period and we know what was the fallout back then.

Shuffle up and deal!
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It would have been interesting to see the result if Bitcoin was around then. Probably the only thing that could get it to $100-1000k in the near future.
 
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