The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

Swa

Honorary Master
Joined
May 4, 2012
Messages
24,826
You don't need a fortune teller to predict where the rand might be , it is not long term sustainable and that is the only problem. The bounce back to R20 and beyond is going to be far more brutal than the short term recovery that is driven by speculate gambling.

Look at the pre 2008 global recession, the rand peak on and short term recovered for a few months before the world started to get their **** together and since then the Rand kept losing ground.

I see the same thing now, if the Rand strengthen like this be really concerned that we are about to hit a global recession and the longer the ran recovers at this pace the worse this recession is likely to be.

The rand recovering and recovering quickly is a short term speculative result that is masking a much bigger global problem and will bounce back way worse than the short term recovery.
Yeah, it's only because of all the bailouts and money printing that there's now an excess to throw around at black holes.
 

MirageF1

Executive Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2018
Messages
5,930
Tonked for 6 over the stadium walls last few days...4% to GPB, from 21.3 to 22.2 currently.

Lost all the ground it "made up" recently...and as expected it resumes its now historic slow march upwards...

Viva!
 

Segg

Expert Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2012
Messages
4,033
I got this in an email the other day

  • Let’s start with the IMF facility of 4,2 billion USD (some 69-70 billion rand)
    • Firstly its telling that just 4 USD = 70 rand. There’s the destructive nature of negative purchasing power in action right there.
Purchasing power – be very conscious of it. Otherwise the 70 rand in your pocket may only one day be worth 1 USD, which in turn, may not be worth the plastic container your Kruger coin comes in.
Edited for context
 

krycor

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,410
Yip so what worries me is the disposable income level getting completely eaten away overnight as most goods are international based i.e. cellphones or services (electronic, so servers, media, subscriptions) etc where SA pricing is not available or adjusted on import. Reducing saving to accommodate longer term means longer term finances become an issue leaving you with no option but to "earn" more to remedy situation which means work abroad, nailed on income coming in or leave.
 

cguy

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2013
Messages
5,889
Yip so what worries me is the disposable income level getting completely eaten away overnight as most goods are international based i.e. cellphones or services (electronic, so servers, media, subscriptions) etc where SA pricing is not available or adjusted on import. Reducing saving to accommodate longer term means longer term finances become an issue leaving you with no option but to "earn" more to remedy situation which means work abroad, nailed on income coming in or leave.
The other factor I have noticed is that prices go up to adjust for the new exchange rate, but sellers are less likely to adjust them down when the exchange rate reverts, since now even simple inaction will increase their margins.
 
  • Like
Reactions: air

maumau

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 13, 2009
Messages
15,490
The other factor I have noticed is that prices go up to adjust for the new exchange rate, but sellers are less likely to adjust them down when the exchange rate reverts, since now even simple inaction will increase their margins.
Prices calculated at exchange rate when shipments arrive, if ZAR is weak prices go up, if its strong prices go down.

Always been like that where I work.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
25,750
The other factor I have noticed is that prices go up to adjust for the new exchange rate, but sellers are less likely to adjust them down when the exchange rate reverts, since now even simple inaction will increase their margins.
Actually there's a few ways companies work this. The price they pay on arrival and ROE.
 

John Tempus

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 8, 2017
Messages
4,166
Prices calculated at exchange rate when shipments arrive, if ZAR is weak prices go up, if its strong prices go down.

Always been like that where I work.
Remind me again of any prices that dropped when the Rand dropped from R19 to mid R16.5 ?

Prices in SA only go up or stay the same and then go up again.

I am not aware of ANYTHING getting cheaper relative to Rand purchasing power in this year(or any recent years) vs it going up the moment the Rand farts upwards.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
25,750
Remind me again of any prices that dropped when the Rand dropped from R19 to mid R16.5 ?

Prices in SA only go up or stay the same and then go up again.

I am not aware of ANYTHING getting cheaper relative to Rand purchasing power in this year(or any recent years) vs it going up the moment the Rand farts upwards.
Actually strangely enough Wootware did adjust back down.
 

Snyper564

Executive Member
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
6,335
Remind me again of any prices that dropped when the Rand dropped from R19 to mid R16.5 ?

Prices in SA only go up or stay the same and then go up again.

I am not aware of ANYTHING getting cheaper relative to Rand purchasing power in this year(or any recent years) vs it going up the moment the Rand farts upwards.
Le Crypto got cheaper :)
 

cguy

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 2, 2013
Messages
5,889
Prices calculated at exchange rate when shipments arrive, if ZAR is weak prices go up, if its strong prices go down.

Always been like that where I work.
If you are ordering directly, sure. When I said “sellers”, I meant SA side seller. If you buy something at Game or Makro for example, they’re probably not adjusting to the last exchange quoted price.
 

maumau

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 13, 2009
Messages
15,490
Remind me again of any prices that dropped when the Rand dropped from R19 to mid R16.5 ?

Prices in SA only go up or stay the same and then go up again.

I am not aware of ANYTHING getting cheaper relative to Rand purchasing power in this year(or any recent years) vs it going up the moment the Rand farts upwards.

Landed cost plus mark up. Otherwise you'd price yourself out of the market.
 
Last edited:

krycor

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,410
All fiat currency goes to zero eventually, and with all the money printing it might be sooner than we think.
US is in crap.. there is a major risk as they have tried to spend their way out (the usual American way) but didn’t address the issues of the virus.

So now they got the double whammy coming of dealing with impact of surging virus (winter is coming )and a lack of confidence while money is already spent. Just not sure if they gonna go through rapid inflation or deflation.
 

John Tempus

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 8, 2017
Messages
4,166
US is in crap.. there is a major risk as they have tried to spend their way out (the usual American way) but didn’t address the issues of the virus.

So now they got the double whammy coming of dealing with impact of surging virus (winter is coming )and a lack of confidence while money is already spent. Just not sure if they gonna go through rapid inflation or deflation.
Whichever way the US is going that would just fast track the same direction for the rest of the world.

Every country is so interconnected and specially with the US so politically and economically if things go south in the US it has a knock on effect with most of the rest of the world if not entire world.

If the US sink, we all sink and countries like SA thats been sinking before covid19 it will sink even deeper.
 

BBSA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 11, 2005
Messages
14,567
US is in crap.. there is a major risk as they have tried to spend their way out (the usual American way) but didn’t address the issues of the virus.

So now they got the double whammy coming of dealing with impact of surging virus (winter is coming )and a lack of confidence while money is already spent. Just not sure if they gonna go through rapid inflation or deflation.
First deflation then inflation.
 
Top