The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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Arzy said:
But what happened to the R20ses?
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They'll be back once we go past R15/$ again.

Realistically we will get to R20/$ eventually, but right now the rand is on a strengthening path after the huge blow out earlier in 2020.
 
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cr@zydude said:
They'll be back once we go past R15/$ again. Realistically we will get to R20/$ eventually, but right now the rand is on a strengthening path after the huge blow out earlier in 2020.
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Once they have to start printing money to pay back the money R20's and beyond will be here:
www.bloomberg.com

South Africa Sees Debt Topping 100% of GDP in 2025

www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

Convert to dollars now while the sun shines. Don't say you weren't warned.
 
Well everyone was warned. You don't pack your bags after the ship has sailed. The Rand is majorly undervalued so investing in U.S. assets can only incur a loss.
 
Swa said:
Well everyone was warned. You don't pack your bags after the ship has sailed. The Rand is majorly undervalued so investing in U.S. assets can only incur a loss.
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I can live with a weighted average of 13. I’m just a little miffed about the last two big transfers out the last 6 weeks. Then again, it’s for use on emigration so useless.

Hindsight is perfect, if I knew is was going to be 1450 now I wouldn’t have bought last month. Could have bought a car with the “saving”.
 
Chris_the_Brit said:
Sigh, I transferred thousands of US dollars (to purchase US shares) a few weeks ago at around R15.20 @ the bank (so market rate was probably R15 or so).
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In the bigger scheme of things, not a biggie. Long term trend for SA/ZAR is down, not always in a straight line though.
 
johnjm said:
GDP came out positive in SA.
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Couple of things some from SA, some from abroad.

Abroad: US landscape is changing, eyes on Georgia vs their senate position which will swing the ease of Biden changing laws.

If it’s Democratic, US corp tax rate becoming 28% which means SA is the same for corp. Combo that the search for yield and SA & other emerging markets look good. Don’t forget besides taxes in general going up, they shaking up more on healthcare & pharma which needs funding so watch exodus of funds.

SA side GDP was positive as it should be due to base effect(like every country it’s like duh), 4th quarter hopefully will pull another positive. I worry about 1st quarter with corona cases but we will see.

Gold & other resources got more valuable.. or better put USD currency is weakening due to QE which is funny as every country is doing the same and results in feedback cycle due to trade nature of usd. SA has a trade surplus as a result (export more than import) and yield search inflows means currency appreciates.

Arzy said:
But what happened to the R20ses?
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They not wrong context changed ie massive usd devaluing which due to nature of SA trade means our exports became more valuable. If SA was only a services nation this would not happen btw.

cr@zydude said:
They'll be back once we go past R15/$ again.

Realistically we will get to R20/$ eventually, but right now the rand is on a strengthening path after the huge blow out earlier in 2020.
Click to expand...

I’d say this is a tough one to predict. SA has an inequality problem posing as a political one. Yes for the moment the Ramaphosa gov is singing the right tunes, clamping on corruption etc so pigs are flying.. yay.. but reality is our debt remains and that can only be offset by economy growing.

So I’d say longer term SA still more likely to head downward and next key date to watch is post local elections and what happens with Ramaphosa getting a 2nd term. Then if he can turn the interest in SA into economic growth next year.

Personally I don’t plan staying in SA beyond 2023ish due to country debt, SA spending patterns, Zuma like factions and reality that longer term inequality has to be sorted for this country to survive & be politically stable with limited corruption. Since most people believe inequality (economic) is justified I don’t see it fixing itself.

But who knows.. US has problems which are becoming too big for the carpet they keep sweeping under, euro monetary system has issues, brexit likely is hard or will have a fallout later as they try something to generate growth, etc world is changing faster these days.. but usd debt is tough to ignore.
 
I have some income sitting in USD, which has lost around R1500 in value over the past few weeks. I am kicking myself that I didn't transfer it into my bank account earlier. My question is, do I cut my losses and transfer now or do I wait? I can't leave it sitting there for much longer.
 
derp90 said:
I have some income sitting in USD, which has lost around R1500 in value over the past few weeks. I am kicking myself that I didn't transfer it into my bank account earlier. My question is, do I cut my losses and transfer now or do I wait? I can't leave it sitting there for much longer.
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Stop trying to time the market.
 
as long as the FED engages in this crazy QE the dollar will weaken considerably

what they did over the past 10 years they have now done in the past 6 months, effectively doubling their "asset" book
 
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