The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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Scooby_Doo said:
Yes. To clarify, stop leaving money you intend investing or transfering in the hope of timing the ZAR/USD exchange rate. It's not something you can do successfully and at best over time, at the very very best, you will lose to inflation.
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Oh, I wasn't leaving it. I was just waiting for it all to clear first before I made one big transfer. Just unfortunate that the clearing coincided with the rate being bad.
 
derp90 said:
Oh, I wasn't leaving it. I was just waiting for it all to clear first before I made one big transfer. Just unfortunate that the clearing coincided with the rate being bad.
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Over time it averages out. I've also stopped trying to time things and just transfer when I get or need it, though lately I've found better use for the Dollars directly. Timing is only for traders.
 
Swa said:
Over time it averages out. I've also stopped trying to time things and just transfer when I get or need it, though lately I've found better use for the Dollars directly. Timing is only for traders.
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What use? I’m looking for something to do with it for the medium to long term.
 
What happened at midday today? After 11h55am SA time, the USD/ZAR xrate went from 14.54 straight to 14.67! If one hovers over the solid line it jumps to 14.67 at 10h05pm SA time...

1608501105825.png
 
1 United States Dollar equals
14,80 South African Rand
21 Dec, 09:25 UTC
:rolleyes:

edit: Now 14.86 :X3:
 
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Went up as soon as markets opened last night. So probably news on the weekend or just the usual rebound after a good run.
 
R14,69/$

So it’s that time of year what’s everyone’s predictions for year end 2021?


Me? I’d go bold..(or stupidly)
R7-8/$ if vaccine and pandemic managed decently.
R12-13/$ if pandemic becomes a managed disaster.

Why dollar cheaper? I see the USD having a stock market collapse much like it did in 2000/1 due to inflated valuations post QE. EM surge will happen as it usually does.. this won’t fix things magically in SA though, just usual currency adjustments vs global risks. Longer term debt issue still hangs in the balance and only comes into view in 2023ish
 
krycor said:
R14,69/$

So it’s that time of year what’s everyone’s predictions for year end 2021?


Me? I’d go bold..(or stupidly)
R7-8/$ if vaccine and pandemic managed decently.
R12-13/$ if pandemic becomes a managed disaster.

Why dollar cheaper? I see the USD having a stock market collapse much like it did in 2000/1 due to inflated valuations post QE. EM surge will happen as it usually does.. this won’t fix things magically in SA though, just usual currency adjustments vs global risks. Longer term debt issue still hangs in the balance and only comes into view in 2023ish
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R15 to the USD.

That’s the optimistic view considering the hole that SA finds itself in.
 
johnjm said:
R15 to the USD.

That’s the optimistic view considering the hole that SA finds itself in.
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+1

Dollar will weaken due to Biden policy, but rand will weaken as well due to lack of power, Covid, more doubling down on BEE as people start protesting, service delivery plummet even worse in the next year as Covid tenders drained even more funds and loans for that start being called in/asking for payments and more end up on social welfare, etc.
 
My very simple view of the ZAR is that, on average, it will devalue by 5% a year. Some years we may be slightly up, others dramatically down but over the long term I feel 5% is a safe bet.
 
Arzy said:
My very simple view of the ZAR is that, on average, it will devalue by 5% a year. Some years we may be slightly up, others dramatically down but over the long term I feel 5% is a safe bet.
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If we default on our bonds, there will be a sudden 20%+ drop.
 
True, and that will be a big impact for the year in question. Over time though it flattens out.

It's like going through this thread with all the predictions of R20/USD by year end. We may touch that in any given year and then we'll strengthen again. I don't see any spike as permanent or a new base.

Over time though we will have a gradual erosion.
 
Arzy said:
True, and that will be a big impact for the year in question. Over time though it flattens out
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I think it will depreciate at 5% a year, then 25% the year we default and then continue at 8-10% a year after that. Have a look at USD/ARS over 5 years for a preview. Once we can’t roll over our debt we have to print ZAR which will accelerate the decline.

And I think my figures may be a bit optimistic as there are further geopolitical risks to take into account (e.g. EFF becoming kingmakers in an upcoming election).
 
JayM said:
I think it will depreciate at 5% a year, then 25% the year we default and then continue at 8-10% a year after that. Have a look at USD/ARS over 5 years for a preview. Once we can’t roll over our debt we have to print ZAR which will accelerate the decline.

And I think my figures may be a bit optimistic as there are further geopolitical risks to take into account (e.g. EFF becoming kingmakers in an upcoming election).
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When are we going to default?
 
krycor said:
R14,69/$

So it’s that time of year what’s everyone’s predictions for year end 2021?


Me? I’d go bold..(or stupidly)
R7-8/$ if vaccine and pandemic managed decently.
R12-13/$ if pandemic becomes a managed disaster.

Why dollar cheaper? I see the USD having a stock market collapse much like it did in 2000/1 due to inflated valuations post QE. EM surge will happen as it usually does.. this won’t fix things magically in SA though, just usual currency adjustments vs global risks. Longer term debt issue still hangs in the balance and only comes into view in 2023ish
Click to expand...
You smoking the strong stuff, dude. There is no way we will see the Rand below R10 to the dollar in our lifetimes again.
 
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