The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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PPI now has a large component related to the gold price which has very little direct influence on consumer inflation.

Reuters released its quarterly economic forecasts yesterday which sees CPIX at an average of 6.68% in 2009. PPI = 8.81% and prime = 14.44%.
 
Almost all economists are currently projecting a peak in April to June CPIX somewhre in the 10% region. What source of yours is citing 15% CPIX?
 
The same Reuters survey has average CPIX of 9.74% in Q208, 9.93% in Q308 and 9.17% in Q408.
 
That is interesting. In the Reuters survey of 29 economists, the highest projection is CPIX of 11.7% in Q3.
 
EDIT: Link above.

Though I would be interested to find out who this "top analysst" is that is not included in the Reuters' survey.

Code: 
                  ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR SOUTH AFRICA                                                                                                    
                    Q208  Q308  Q408  Q109  Q209  Q309  Q409  2008  2009  2010  
ABSA Capital        9.90  9.80  9.10  7.60  6.10  5.80  5.80  9.60  6.30  5.80  
Citadel             9.80  10.50 10.80 10.30 9.80  8.40  7.30  10.20 8.80        
Brait               8.80  8.50  7.60  6.50  5.90  5.90  5.60  8.70  5.90  5.10  
Buro Eco Res        10.20 9.90  8.90  7.90  5.70  6.60  6.40  9.60  6.60        
Macquarie FSS                                                                   
Citigroup           9.90  10.20 9.50  8.70  7.00  6.50  6.30  9.80  7.10  5.60  
Credit Guarantee                                                                
BJM Securities      9.90  10.50 9.50  7.80  6.10  6.20  6.40  9.80  6.60  6.30  
PIC                 9.90  9.70  8.40  7.00  5.40  5.60  5.60  9.30  5.90        
Efficient Group                                                                 
Eskom               9.00  8.80  8.50  7.00  6.50  6.30  6.00  8.90  6.50  5.60  
Merrill Lynch                                                                   
Global Insight SA   9.70  9.10  8.20  6.70  5.60  5.20  5.20  9.10  5.70  5.00  
JP Morgan           10.50 10.50 9.10  8.20  6.10  6.40  6.90  9.90  6.90        
Kagiso sec                                                                      
Morgan Stanley      9.60  9.80  9.50  8.70  7.20  6.90  6.30  9.60  7.30        
Nedbank             9.80  10.30 8.80  7.40  6.60  6.40  6.50  9.60  6.70  6.60  
NKC Independent Eco 10.70 10.80 10.70 9.80  7.50  6.40  5.70  10.40 7.30  5.30  
RMB                                                                             
Lehman              10.20 11.40 10.60 9.30  7.90  7.40  7.10  10.40 7.90  6.70  
              
IDC                 9.34  9.11  8.39  7.79  6.89  6.23  6.02  9.01  6.72  5.36  
Standard Bank Group 10.0  10.4  9.60  8.30  6.40  5.70  5.20  9.80  6.40  5.30  
Standard Chartered                                                              
Vunani Securities   9.70  11.7  11.3  9.80  7.90  6.10  5.40  10.5  7.30  6.00  
Thebe Securities    9.80  10.0  9.50  8.20  6.60  5.90  5.70  9.70  6.60  6.20  
T-Sec                                                                           
DZ Bank Emld                                                                    
Investec            9.30  9.40  8.30  7.10  6.20  5.70  6.20  9.10  6.20  5.70  
UBS                                                                             
Moody's             8.00  7.60  6.60  6.30  6.20  6.00  5.70  7.80  6.00  5.20  
Unattributable
 
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100bp. 150bp at a stretch I reckon. But as economists say ceteris paribus.
 
Ah. It seems Razia Khan is this "top analyst". Wonder why no submission to Reuters from Stan Chart?
 
$ = R 7.69
£ = R 15.04
€ = R 11.90
Gold = $ 887.75
Oil = $ 124.03
Last update 09-May-2008 11:30:00


Think that is correct- the iafrica site is in a bit of a state...
 
Take money offshore now, say, in Euro's or wait? I know that experts say the Euro is at top value now.. I am a bit tempted by the US$ (you know buy low...)
 
Londo said:
Take money offshore now, say, in Euro's or wait? I know that experts say the Euro is at top value now.. I am a bit tempted by the US$ (you know buy low...)
Click to expand...

Depends on your intention? You looking to hedge against the rising rand or make money on the fx market? There are simple hedge instruments within our borders without the hassle of having an iliquid offshore investment. You could also just trade the fx market from within our borders too so only reason for taking it offshore would be for tax purposes then.

I dont think the US$ has hit bottom yet at all. Especially onsidering Bernake's latest $200bn donation to the "get of of jail free" fund for the banking sector. With global inflation on the up its tough to determine what is going to happen to the major currencies.

@Alf101 - 15.1% CPIX is certainly out of the forecasted consensus range. If that were to happen then it would show exactly how short-sighted and stupid all South African economists are. CPIX at 15.1% would spell absolute disaster for our country!
 
DJStealth said:
Depends on your intention? You looking to hedge against the rising rand or make money on the fx market? There are simple hedge instruments within our borders without the hassle of having an iliquid offshore investment. You could also just trade the fx market from within our borders too so only reason for taking it offshore would be for tax purposes then.

I dont think the US$ has hit bottom yet at all. Especially considering Bernake's latest $200bn donation to the "get of of jail free" fund for the banking sector. With global inflation on the up its tough to determine what is going to happen to the major currencies.

@Alf101 - 15.1% CPIX is certainly out of the forecasted consensus range. If that were to happen then it would show exactly how short-sighted and stupid all South African economists are. CPIX at 15.1% would spell absolute disaster for our country!
Click to expand...

I have bought the StanLib Euro and US$ currency funds through Equinox as an inside the border hedge. Other methods?
 
alf101 said:
Actually I reckon it could happen, have added this page to my November calender.
Also depends on the methodology used to calculate it, and whether StatsSA actually calculate it properly.
Click to expand...

whether StatsSA calculate it correctly or not, it would mean that most economists (greater than 90%) would be wrong by an order of 3 or more percentage points. and whe are talking about a time that is relatively near by. look it is possible that most could get their predictions spectularly wrong. i just think it is highly inlikely.
 
Londo said:
I have bought the StanLib Euro and US$ currency funds through Equinox as an inside the border hedge. Other methods?
Click to expand...

Completely dependant on your portfolio and your appetite for risk TBH!
 
$ = R 7.582
£ = R 14.774
€ = R 11.76
Oil = $ 124.22
Gold = $ 869.7
Last update:
13 May 2008 19:30:00


Strengthening again....
 
666 posts, this doesn't bode well.

Damn DJStealth beat me to it!
 
$ = R 7.489
£ = R 14.573
€ = R 11.589
Oil = $ 125.75
Gold = $ 897.2
Last update:
16 May 2008 15:30:00

Firming still...
 
Rand remains firm
Article By: Jacqueline Mackenzie
Mon, 19 May 2008 09:00
The rand remained firm in early trade on Monday and is expected to consolidate after its recent strong run. Events of importance this week includes a speech by Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni on Thursday, which players will be watching for any hints whether the country will get another interest rate increase next month.

By 09:00 the rand was bid at 7.4633 to the dollar from a previous close of 7.4632. It was bid at 11.6299 to the euro from a previous 11.6415 and at 14.5685 against sterling from 14.5886 before.

The euro was bid at $1.5575 from $1.5594 overnight, while gold was quoted at $907.55 a troy ounce from $899.60/oz overnight.

RMB analysts said in their morning report that that rand has had a remarkable run, trading down from a high of 8.25 two months ago to break the key 7.48 level on Friday.

While possible foreign direct investment deals are helping, really the key has been the remarkable turn in international sentiment, they said.

"For now positive sentiment is dominant, the market managing to shrug off data that showed US consumer confidence fell to a fresh 28-year low while Japanese business confidence hit a five-year low. Gold also managed to push back above $900/oz and we have more details in the Financial Times this morning about how a MTN/Bharti deal is progressing.

"Local violence against foreigners creates some negative headlines but foreign investors will at least probably see talk of staged Eskom price hikes as a positive," RMB said.

They expect the rand to trade in a 7.39/40 — 7.53 range for the day.
Click to expand...
Are we heading towards R7/$ and R13-R14/Pound again?

$ = R 7.489
£ = R 14.666
€ = R 11.685
Oil = $ 124.02
Gold = $ 908.6
Last update:
19 May 2008 11:30:00
 
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