The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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X-Gamer said:
HDD prices never recovered.

I bought a 1TB internal drive for R499 back when I first built this PC in 2010. These days, you can only beat R500/TB when you purchase 4TB drives and upwards.
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Haha, where do you get that? HDD prices only marginally increased since 2010 while the R/$ rate skyrocketed.

Johnatan56 said:
Yeah, I think 2-4 years later a factory should be back up and running, smacks of price collusion tbh.
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You have no idea what you're talking about. If you factor in the exchange rate HDD prices has come down per GB.
 
By my calculations, the ZAR has strengthened some 13% since January, have the markets not priced in the junk status yet? Saw some reports saying it was already priced in, but then even with that its still getting stronger. Still way off the 12 to the dollar we were at last year this time though
 
sox63 said:
By my calculations, the ZAR has strengthened some 13% since January, have the markets not priced in the junk status yet? Saw some reports saying it was already priced in, but then even with that its still getting stronger. Still way off the 12 to the dollar we were at last year this time though
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Saw a report this morning where a dude reckoned the latest bond issue was 100 bp higher interest as a result of the downgrade being factored in. The part that I find more alarming is that its a USD denominated bond...pretty sure SA had mostly (90%+) issued ZAR denominated bonds till now.

Think the FX factored in the downgrade before the Jan starting point you're looking at. Nenegate was in late December if I'm not mistaken
 
Swa said:
Haha, where do you get that? HDD prices only marginally increased since 2010 while the R/$ rate skyrocketed.


You have no idea what you're talking about. If you factor in the exchange rate HDD prices has come down per GB.
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Not talking about rand, in dollar terms.

http://www.jcmit.com/diskprice.htm
So just before the crash (or older stock).
2011.75 0.0000400 2011 Oct17 Web NewEgg.com Samsung 2TB 5,400 rpm, 32MB
2015.83 0.0000325 2015 Nov21 Web NewEgg.com Western Digital 4TB,WD Green 64MB

Considering that the storage space doubled, that ~20% drop per MB is not a lot. And we can go on about how the dollar strengthened slightly since then :p

In the 1TB drive market I haven't really seen a price change.

EDIT: not saying there is no price drop, I am just saying it is very little compared to the four years previously. Actually, let's go way back:
2008.92 0.000100 2008 Dec14 Web NewEgg.com Western Digital 1TB 7,200 rpm, 16MB
but we can blame that on the financial crisis.
 
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HavocXphere said:
Saw a report this morning where a dude reckoned the latest bond issue was 100 bp higher interest as a result of the downgrade being factored in. The part that I find more alarming is that its a USD denominated bond...pretty sure SA had mostly (90%+) issued ZAR denominated bonds till now.

Think the FX factored in the downgrade before the Jan starting point you're looking at. Nenegate was in late December if I'm not mistaken
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It was Andrew Canton on Alec Hogg's show I think. That's what prompted me looking at the rate in the first place. Regarding why I used since January, that when our all time high was recorded, we are already almost back to the pre Nenegate levels of 14.60 = $

Another interesting thing was that bond issue was two times over subcribed, so there is still an appetite out there
 
Draganchor said:
Which Bond?

I track the DBSA bonds and they are junk, that is just a marker for me. But I would appreciate where you find value.
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This one...

Cape Town – National Treasury was praised for managing to attract interest in its new $1.25bn 10-year bond issuance on the international capital market on Friday.

South Africa issued its first international bond in two years on Thursday to fund its budget deficit that has increased to about 4% of gross domestic product in the last four years, Treasury announced on Friday.

The US dollar bond was priced at a coupon (interest rate) of 4.875%, which represents a spread of 335 basis points above the 10-year US Treasury’s benchmark bond, it said in a statement.

"That is down from about 350 bps (basis points) when it started marketing deal. At close of local trade, R203 was marked-to-market at 8.145% - down two bps," NKC African Economics said in a note on Friday.

“The global investor base was primarily located in Europe and the United States,” National Treasury said.

“The transaction was more than two times oversubscribed,” it said. “The South African government sees the success of the transaction as an expression of investor confidence in the country’s sound macro-economic policy framework and prudent fiscal management."

“In good times, the bond could have been four or five times oversubscribed,” said Umkhulu Consulting’s Adam Phillips. “However, to be over two times oversubscribed is a pretty good sign taking into consideration all the local political issues.

“We should take our hats off to Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and Treasury for getting that much interest into that.”

The rand improved quickly on the news, trading at R15.09/$ by 10:40. “It has come down in the last half hour,” Phillips explained. “Since 9:00 it has been edging down on the news.

“Operators who are long the rand might play on it, but I think that the news will draw out importers as we nudge to 15.00,” he said. “Expect a quiet afternoon (in currency trading). Given what we have experienced over the last couple of weeks politically, I think Pravin Gordhan will be relieved.”

Phillips said SA bonds yields have edged up all week, so the yield players have been on the fence there. "But you have to watch the Yen and the EUR," he said.

This issuance forms part of South Africa’s 2016/17 financing programme.

Government’s borrowing requirement over the medium term amounts to $5.5bn equivalent, which includes $1bn carried over from 2015/16.

The proceeds of the bond will partially finance the government’s foreign currency commitments of $6.4bn over the medium term, it said.

“During the remainder of 2015/16, government plans to raise the equivalent of $1bn in global capital markets,” Treasury said in its budget review in February.

“Over the medium term, government intends to borrow the equivalent of about $4.5bn to cover its total foreign currency commitments of $6.4bn in global markets. The rest will be financed through foreign exchange purchases,” it added.

Treasury said in the review that government’s foreign debt as a percentage of gross loan debt remains low, averaging 10% over the medium term.

"The current account deficit has swollen back to above 5% of GDP most recently, driving concern about how well South Africa will be able to stand up to sudden swings in capital flows that could be triggered by accelerated US monetary policy tightening," NKC said.

"The rand has rebounded somewhat since hitting all-time lows in thin liquidity during mid-January, aided by hawkish action from the Sarb (South African Reserve Bank) and generally calmer emerging markets. However, further gains will be difficult given the heightened political risks environment," it said.
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http://www.fin24.com/Economy/praise-for-treasury-as-it-issues-new-125bn-bond-20160408
 
sox63 said:
Another interesting thing was that bond issue was two times over subcribed, so there is still an appetite out there
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To me that would suggest they mispriced it though, no? Surely you'd want to price it so that you just barely get it covered. Obviously difficult to judge in advance.
 
Johnatan56 said:
Not talking about rand, in dollar terms.

http://www.jcmit.com/diskprice.htm
So just before the crash (or older stock).
2011.75 0.0000400 2011 Oct17 Web NewEgg.com Samsung 2TB 5,400 rpm, 32MB
2015.83 0.0000325 2015 Nov21 Web NewEgg.com Western Digital 4TB,WD Green 64MB

Considering that the storage space doubled, that ~20% drop per MB is not a lot. And we can go on about how the dollar strengthened slightly since then :p

In the 1TB drive market I haven't really seen a price change.

EDIT: not saying there is no price drop, I am just saying it is very little compared to the four years previously. Actually, let's go way back:
2008.92 0.000100 2008 Dec14 Web NewEgg.com Western Digital 1TB 7,200 rpm, 16MB
but we can blame that on the financial crisis.
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Wow hey, are you going to compare apples to apples anytime soon? A 2 TB 5400 rpm drive was $79.99 in Oct 2011. In Oct 2015 and Dec 2015 a 3 TB 7200 rpm drive with double the cache was $89.99 and $84.99 respectively. That's 29% less and then we're still comparing a cheaper brand to a more expensive one. Seems to me hard drive prices came down quite remarkably for the same brand.
 
Swa said:
Wow hey, are you going to compare apples to apples anytime soon? A 2 TB 5400 rpm drive was $79.99 in Oct 2011. In Oct 2015 and Dec 2015 a 3 TB 7200 rpm drive with double the cache was $89.99 and $84.99 respectively. That's 29% less and then we're still comparing a cheaper brand to a more expensive one. Seems to me hard drive prices came down quite remarkably for the same brand.
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I had purchased a WD 1TB external last year for about R800 and now it's at around R1000 for the same product. 25% increase right there.
 
mintydroid said:
I had purchased a WD 1TB external last year for about R800 and now it's at around R1000 for the same product. 25% increase right there.
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When last year? The R/$ rate has fallen 25% in the last year. Please people, stop making foolish arguments that have already been answered.
 
Rand has strengthened a lot but I haven't moved funds back as I suspect it will drop a a bit once junk status is hit in June/July
 
krycor said:
Just realistic. Until the junk status is avoided the risk persists
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With the outlook being negative either we are downgraded or not, something tells me you wont be bringing that money in anytime soon
 
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