The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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Pho3nix said:
Humor me.. what fundamentals? Free school announcement was overshadowed by ANC conference.
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For one and key.... business confidence, is shot due to political uncertainty...this will only start to improve once CR starts calling the shots and Zuma gets recalled... -high unemployment, you only start making a dent ...once you address the above.
 
HavocXphere said:
Surprisingly strong given the nationalization announcement
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My thinking too, but I feel the markets know that the ANC needs a 2/3rds majority to alter the constitution to achieve their new plans and without the DA on board, they won't get it.
 
HavocXphere said:
Surprisingly strong given the nationalization announcement
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AFAIK they would still need to get this through parliament, which would require a 2/3 majority to amend the constitution. Even with the EFF they may or may not get enough support.

I tend to agree - I have bought offshore equity over the last few days, I think it'll settle down to low R13s again soon.
 
yebocan said:
For one and key....
business confidence, is shot due to political uncertainty...this will only start to improve once CR starts calling the shots and Zuma gets recalled...
-high unemployment, you only start making a dent ...once you address the above.
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Unemployment has always been a problem. This was the case when we were at 12.40.
Business Confidence wise, would guess market is waiting to see what a CR run ANC will do, hopefully no further issues with resuffles.
 
I think it depends wheat happens with the Zuma saga. If he doesn’t do the SONA and finance budget speech is done by someone people trust, I reckon it will keep where it is.
 
silkenphoenixx said:
That's a *big* "if" though.
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The are bigger events happening presently like the US dropping Corp tax to 21% and removing foreign tax credits. So it will be a tough year for SA even if we do everything right. That being said SA is looking lesser & lesser of a political risk compared to others and that’s kinda what will see it through(assuming Zuma goes with cuffs).

Just remember.. this is the first year of US version of Zuma, aka Trump, and much like our president.. he has used position to influence tax. Ironic isn’t it.. he maybe wealthy but still does what’s need to get more. Makes one wonder what CR will do.
 
I see people ignoring the simple fact that SA is running a huge trade surplus compared to previous years.
 
Apparently investors are re=investing because there is some light at the end of the Zuma tunnel. Highest it's been since June 2015. 12.26-12.27
 
Pho3nix said:
Apparently investors are re=investing because there is some light at the end of the Zuma tunnel. Highest it's been since June 2015. 12.26-12.27
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Now if ANC can recall Zuma we might see the Rand strength further into the R11
 
Sumen said:
Now if ANC can recall Zuma we might see the Rand strength further into the R11
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Tough one.. so fair value is approx where we are now.

Now if Zuma goes, trial ensues etc then by end of next year I reckon we should claw back to about R10-10.50/USD partly because the GDP will be growing a bit more(natural recap and later due to sentiment).

But again it really depends how Zuma and the ANC handle the coming court drama. Remember there will be a lot of infighting to come as the gravy train kicks off 80% of the politically connected. Further strengthening depends heavily on people adapting to the new reality where you need to work a little at least.

It’s like Trevor Noah joked.. in most places corruption happens on <10%.. so you build 9 bridges and steal 1.. in SA under Zuma they steal 20(quote still for 10) and get 2(as in tax pays pay a lot more and get not much back).
 
crackersa said:
With the recent strengthening, I hate send lol no money to the wife.
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Your Amerxican is getting more and more complicated.

I suggest you hedge your funds. Keep money on both sides. You can earn 7%+ in a savings account in SA without doing anything. So you don't lose too much whatever happens
 
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