The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[Shibal]

I'm assuming absolutely nothing.
More likely due to stronger dollar, nerves about Italy and Greece and emerging markets and whatnot

It seems to be losing against most major currencies.

I Just got the below rate selling Pound.

The transfer will take approximately 5 working days starting on the next business day, and you will be notified as soon as we have successfully delivered the funds into your account.

The exchange rate assigned at the time of receiving your funds is 12.466.

Should I have waited a couple more days ?

 

[krepunk]

Going to the US at the end of October... not sure whether to buy some usd now or wait it out and hope for the best...was originally just gonna take my credit card but don't wanna end up paying R12 per $...

 

[Mike Hoxbig]

Going to the US at the end of October... not sure whether to buy some usd now or wait it out and hope for the best...was originally just gonna take my credit card but don't wanna end up paying R12 per $...

I would think of it as insurance and buy now. If it drops by more than R1 over the next month or two, then sell and wait it out. If not, then you've done yourself a favour.

 

[genetic]

I wonder just how much of this has to do with the ANC and the YL and Cosatu with all its nonsense?

Nothing.

Johannesburg - The rand extended losses against the dollar on Wednesday, tumbling 1.8% to 15-month lows in line with other emerging markets whose currencies were sold off due to persistent anxiety over the eurozone debt crisis.

The rand was trading at R7.86/$ in early afternoon trade, 1.54% weaker than Tuesday's New York close of R7.74/$. It fell to R7.882/$ earlier in the day, its weakest since June 7 2010.

Data showed inflation was steady in August, leaving room for an interest rate cut over the next few months, which added to the rand's woes. Other data showed retail sales growth quickened to 2.8% year-on-year in July, a figure seen by analysts as sluggish.

http://www.fin24.com/Markets/Currencies/Rand-hits-15-month-low-against-dollar-20110921

 

[intel8080]

I wonder just how much of this has to do with the ANC and the YL and Cosatu with all its nonsense?

Of course it has to do with that and that conference about racism from which some "big gun" countries stayed away. The world is taking note of South Africa's idiotic politics (stance on Libya,Dalailama,race card etc). The Rand has lost heavy across the board! I am surprised to see some forumites doing the ostrich thing

 

[Fazda]

Of course it has to do with that and that conference about racism from which some "big gun" countries stayed away. The world is taking note of South Africa's idiotic politics (stance on Libya,Dalailama,race card etc). The Rand has lost heavy across the board! I am surprised to see some forumites doing the ostrich thing

it has absolutely nothing to do with it and everything to do with the Financial Crisis in Europe in particular. People are hedging money on the dollar istead of gold or Euro - that makes the dollar strong again, and the Rand tumbles.

 

[agentrfr]

it has absolutely nothing to do with it and everything to do with the Financial Crisis in Europe in particular. People are hedging money on the dollar istead of gold or Euro - that makes the dollar strong again, and the Rand tumbles.

^This

 

[Zenbaas]

So what is the general consensus on the Rand...?

Is is going to continue to fall or will it strengthen and stabilize anytime soon...?

 

[biometrics]

IMO it should go back to 7 in the weeks ahead.

 

[intel8080]

Looking at Brazil, Russia, India and China (all more or less in the same boat as South Africa),I expect (and hope) the Rand will get back below 8 to the dollar. As long as the local politician keep their mouths shut (easier said then done), the Rand should regain some losses. While currencies move up and down all the time, sudden jumps like this over such a short period of time, are pointing to underlying issues with that particular currency. Things like this only pushes South Africa closer to the high risk category rating. (Lets see how many people swear at me this time around)

 

[NightShift]

Looking at Brazil, Russia, India and China (all more or less in the same boat as South Africa),I expect (and hope) the Rand will get back below 8 to the dollar. As long as the local politician keep their mouths shut (easier said then done), the Rand should regain some losses. While currencies move up and down all the time, sudden jumps like this over such a short period of time, are pointing to underlying issues with that particular currency. Things like this only pushes South Africa closer to the high risk category rating. (Lets see how many people swear at me this time around)

You talk, yet its pretty clear that you have no idea what you are talking about. You seem to be indicating in your prior posts, that the Rand devaluing is down to our local politicians and that no other emerging market has experienced nearly as much devaluation in currency value as SA.

The last time the Rand was below R7 to the dollar (well below R6.99) was well over a month ago. So somehow stating that 20% has been lost in a couple of weeks, is a moron at work, an idiot, talking without first even bothering to check facts, which are readily available. So immediately, i write anything you say off as being baseless at worst, and suspect at best.

For your information, lets take a look at Brazil, India, and Russia, against the Dollar, along with the Rand. We will measure values as at 31 August, against 23 September (just over 3 weeks).

Indian Rupee (31 Aug): Value at 45.80
Indian Rupee (23 Sep): Value at 49.54
Depreciation: roughly 9%

Russian Ruble to Dollar (31 Aug): Value at 28.85
Russian Ruble to Dollar (23 Sep): Value at 32.08
Depreciation: roughly 11%

Brazilian Real to Dollar (31 Aug): Value at 1.59
Brazilian Real to Dollar (23 Sep): Value at 1.83
Depreciation: roughly 15%

Rand to Dollar (31 Aug): Value at 6.99
Rand to Dollar (23 Sep): Value at 8.10
Depreciation: roughly 16%

So what can we conclude here?

1) In 3 weeks, all of the above 'emerging' markets have seen their currency go down against the dollar (a trend?)
2) The 23 Sep value is not the worst level /lowest level experienced for any of the countries. You can pick a different time and day and get a different %
3) You are simply guessing because you don't really know what causes a market to move. Are all of the politicians in these countries being idiots then? Or maybe, just maybe, there is a more concrete reason behind this 'sudden drop' across the board? Or, as others have already suggested on the flip side of the coin, there may be a reason for the dollar strength? Yet you are not considering these factors at all it seems.

Im also curious, just for a laugh, to understand your reasoning and logic as to why the Rand will move back below the R8/$ line? Are the politicians going to keep quiet now? Are you just hazzarding another guess? What are you actually basing this on? Im eager to hear! No offence, but you seem to demonstrate a very narrow view of the world.

 

[Zenbaas]

You talk, yet its pretty clear that you have no idea what you are talking about. You seem to be indicating in your prior posts, that the Rand devaluing is down to our local politicians and that no other emerging market has experienced nearly as much devaluation in currency value as SA.

The last time the Rand was below R7 to the dollar (well below R6.99) was well over a month ago. So somehow stating that 20% has been lost in a couple of weeks, is a moron at work, an idiot, talking without first even bothering to check facts, which are readily available. So immediately, i write anything you say off as being baseless at worst, and suspect at best.

For your information, lets take a look at Brazil, India, and Russia, against the Dollar, along with the Rand. We will measure values as at 31 August, against 23 September (just over 3 weeks).

Indian Rupee (31 Aug): Value at 45.80
Indian Rupee (23 Sep): Value at 49.54
Depreciation: roughly 9%

Russian Ruble to Dollar (31 Aug): Value at 28.85
Russian Ruble to Dollar (23 Sep): Value at 32.08
Depreciation: roughly 11%

Brazilian Real to Dollar (31 Aug): Value at 1.59
Brazilian Real to Dollar (23 Sep): Value at 1.83
Depreciation: roughly 15%

Rand to Dollar (31 Aug): Value at 6.99
Rand to Dollar (23 Sep): Value at 8.10
Depreciation: roughly 16%

So what can we conclude here?

1) In 3 weeks, all of the above 'emerging' markets have seen their currency go down against the dollar (a trend?)
2) The 23 Sep value is not the worst level /lowest level experienced for any of the countries. You can pick a different time and day and get a different %
3) You are simply guessing because you don't really know what causes a market to move. Are all of the politicians in these countries being idiots then? Or maybe, just maybe, there is a more concrete reason behind this 'sudden drop' across the board? Or, as others have already suggested on the flip side of the coin, there may be a reason for the dollar strength? Yet you are not considering these factors at all it seems.

Im also curious, just for a laugh, to understand your reasoning and logic as to why the Rand will move back below the R8/$ line? Are the politicians going to keep quiet now? Are you just hazzarding another guess? What are you actually basing this on? Im eager to hear! No offence, but you seem to demonstrate a very narrow view of the world.

So what do you think will happen to the R in the coming weeks...?

 

[LazyLion]

IMO it should go back to 7 in the weeks ahead.

Yes, the US dollar is currently taking some time to strengthen relative to the European currencies.

When this cycle of strengthening inevitably comes to an end, the Rand will return to normal market levels.

 

[NightShift]

So what do you think will happen to the R in the coming weeks...?

I dont know what will happen.

I think that the Rand has been oversold and as a result will probably strengthen slightly in the coming weeks. Longer than that, we'll have to see how things outside of South Africa go.

 

[Zenbaas]

I dont know what will happen.

I think that the Rand has been oversold and as a result will probably strengthen slightly in the coming weeks. Longer than that, we'll have to see how things outside of South Africa go.

I really hope so. Was planning on importing a few things for myself but at the moment things aren't looking great.

 

[intel8080]

You talk, yet its pretty clear that you have no idea what you are talking about. You seem to be indicating in your prior posts, that the Rand devaluing is down to our local politicians and that no other emerging market has experienced nearly as much devaluation in currency value as SA.

The last time the Rand was below R7 to the dollar (well below R6.99) was well over a month ago. So somehow stating that 20% has been lost in a couple of weeks, is a moron at work, an idiot, talking without first even bothering to check facts, which are readily available. So immediately, i write anything you say off as being baseless at worst, and suspect at best.

For your information, lets take a look at Brazil, India, and Russia, against the Dollar, along with the Rand. We will measure values as at 31 August, against 23 September (just over 3 weeks).

Indian Rupee (31 Aug): Value at 45.80
Indian Rupee (23 Sep): Value at 49.54
Depreciation: roughly 9%

Russian Ruble to Dollar (31 Aug): Value at 28.85
Russian Ruble to Dollar (23 Sep): Value at 32.08
Depreciation: roughly 11%

Brazilian Real to Dollar (31 Aug): Value at 1.59
Brazilian Real to Dollar (23 Sep): Value at 1.83
Depreciation: roughly 15%

Rand to Dollar (31 Aug): Value at 6.99
Rand to Dollar (23 Sep): Value at 8.10
Depreciation: roughly 16%

So what can we conclude here?

1) In 3 weeks, all of the above 'emerging' markets have seen their currency go down against the dollar (a trend?)
2) The 23 Sep value is not the worst level /lowest level experienced for any of the countries. You can pick a different time and day and get a different %
3) You are simply guessing because you don't really know what causes a market to move. Are all of the politicians in these countries being idiots then? Or maybe, just maybe, there is a more concrete reason behind this 'sudden drop' across the board? Or, as others have already suggested on the flip side of the coin, there may be a reason for the dollar strength? Yet you are not considering these factors at all it seems.

Im also curious, just for a laugh, to understand your reasoning and logic as to why the Rand will move back below the R8/$ line? Are the politicians going to keep quiet now? Are you just hazzarding another guess? What are you actually basing this on? Im eager to hear! No offence, but you seem to demonstrate a very narrow view of the world.

Insults aside . . . On Saturday (yesterday) the Rand was trading at over 8.3 to the dollar and not at what you are saying! <SNIP>

 

[NightShift]

Insults aside . . . On Saturday (yesterday) the Rand was trading at over 8.3 to the dollar and not at what you are saying! <SNIP>

Read point 2. It closed at 8.10.

 

[Hoekachaka]

Here is a graph (Dollar/Rand over the last 5 days). http://fififinance.com/charts/USDZAR.FOREX?t=5d&q=l&l=on Just make sure you have the relevant values. It looks like Intel is right. Further,the Rand also weakened somewhat against the other BRICS countries not only the USD When can we expect the petrol price to shoot up?

 

[creeper]

Of course it has to do with that and that conference about racism from which some "big gun" countries stayed away. The world is taking note of South Africa's idiotic politics (stance on Libya,Dalailama,race card etc). The Rand has lost heavy across the board! I am surprised to see some forumites doing the ostrich thing

Large economies don't really care about our small economy. The only reason that the rand is falling is the outflow of foreign investment due to the crises in America and Europe. Investors are irrational and therefore take their money out of the "risky" market and invest it into "safe" investments aka government bonds.

So don't attempt to link the rand falling to purely political aspect. The world economy is driving the rand's fall.

And again. No one can forecast an irrational market. So all we can do is wait and see.

Off topic. I'm not big on forecasting of prices and currencies. Some economist stated that the gold will go up to $2000 before the end of the year. I'm predicting it won't. How do I know? I don't. I'm making a wild guess and if it becomes true, I'm a hero. If it don't, all I state is there was an unknown factor that i could not have anticipated. And we believe everything they say in the media.

 

[Jase]

Pure speculation on my part but I 'guesstimate' around R7.80 by months end.