US pledges financial rescue plan (2008)

[Arthur]

Sorry to go on about the Chinese vs USA economy, but posters have raised an issue and I'm on a roll.

US (mid-high risk or 'bubble') debt exposure is perhaps $1.3-trillion or about 10% of GDP. No-one knows the truth about China, but conservative estimates put bad or 'bubble' debt there at around $450-billion or 14% of GDP, and perhaps as high as 18% or even 20% ... no-one knows by just how much collateral is overvalued, so the reality might be worse than imagined. It's certainly not better than the officially admitted figures. And China has a far smaller development cushion than the USA, exacerbated by the great disparities between the coastal third and the rest. By some estimates China's growth has already passed peak.

As an aside, it's worth pondering that by 2010 there will be some 30 million (some reports say up to 80-million) Chinese males who will never find a wife because of population distortions brought on by cultural discrimination, the One Child policy, and the female abortion holocaust. Also, serious labour shortages (believe it or not, in a country of zillions!) are already being felt, leading to wage inflation of >20% in 2008. When (not if) the bubble bursts and the inevitable social unrest follows, it'll be interesting to see how these millions will be deployed ... will The People's Party in Beijing turn to foreign adventures to deflect local problems...?

The world's doofus economy sits west of Japan and south of Asian Russia.

 

[boramk]

I’m confident the Indian and Chinese exceed this by far.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2007/09/117_9485.html

Korean employees work for the longest hours, according to a report, Monday, but their productivity per person is only about 68 percent of that of Americans, which is the world's highest.

Just wondering when vxv is going to reply to his thread

 

[vxv]

Just a bit busy...but will respond soon...

 

[Arthur]

Nice link, boramk.
More from your story (note the last para, vvx):

However, Korea's overall productivity growth rate increased by 4.8 percent annually, from 28 percent of that of the U.S. in 1980. The annual growth of China was 5.7 percent.

Korea's annual average growth rate of labor productivity in the manufacturing field between 1980 and 2005 was 7.4 percent, one of the world's highest, following 10.2 percent in Slovakia, 8.1 percent in Ireland, 7.9 percent in China and 7.6 percent in Poland.

The value added per person employed in Korea in the manufacturing sector was about 50 percent of that of the U.S. in 2005, while that in the transport and communications field was 45 percent of the U.S. level in 2004. The value added in the wholesale and retail trade sector was less than 25 percent of that of the U.S. in 2004.

 

[vxv]

I'm guessing because of their "Doofus Tactics" they are fixing things, as many people are inclined to their economy.

Why the Doofus thread?

Do you okes eat ignorance for breakfast?

The Doofus, is to exclaim the dire straight the US are in and how they are trying to bull**** the rest of the world including their own investors, in thinking they are actually floating.

Second they would rather place blame on the rest of the world for the economic crisis when they should be looking at themselves as they are the actual cause. Typical American always suggest the grass is greener somewhere else so they can concur it and blame anyone else.

If you suggest ignorance being against the commercial realm of fake advertising (Team America) and actually having the insight in rather trying to focus on building our own nation without being compared to the US, then yes.

 

[vxv]

I think it's called envypops. Not very healthy

Lol, good one and I agree.

 

[vxv]

Don't base your thesis on your own petty thoughts.

No they are actually very productive. India and China DO NOT exceed this by far, as they are equally productive, maybe more maybe less.

Why because you say so? Not everyone is like you an wants to go backl to the stone age as you indicated in a previous thread.

America has a fair share of failings and also a fair share of successes.
Being Anti-American with thesis based on Youtube videos doesn't make you smart, it makes you ignorant.

Firstly you must be joking? So I mustn’t base my thesis on my own thoughts. Should I plagiarise someone else’s, should I beg a dumb American to adopt their delinquent baby boomer philosophy on life. Cry on Oprah and see a shrink on TV?

And how is it Petty, are you 12?

FACT: Banks go bankrupt in the US as we speak and you are telling me I’m petty on MY OWN thoughts.

If you read my statement I said confident, but now since you put it. Just for argument sake I will state it’s a FACT, the rest of the world are more productive than Americans.

Dude, I never stated that I want to go back to the stone age. READ…I reaffirmed the point of socially constructive moral values. This might come as a shocker to you, I’ll whisper it for you…You don’t need money for everything in life…EXCEPT IF YOU’RE AN AMERICAN.

YouTube, so if I see all the videos and have discussions like these on forums, you’re telling me I’m naive and should rather bow down to America? F@ck yea…

 

[boramk]

The Doofus, is to exclaim the dire straight the US are in and how they are trying to bull**** the rest of the world including their own investors, in thinking they are actually floating.

Exactly how are they bull****ting?
I do remember them saying they are in the worst situation since the Great Depression and they are trying to bail out with that $700billion.

Second they would rather place blame on the rest of the world for the economic crisis when they should be looking at themselves as they are the actual cause. Typical American always suggest the grass is greener somewhere else so they can concur it and blame anyone else.

As I said, all countries in the world, are inclined to their economy.
If they got a cold, we sneeze. You cannot critisize America for having the worlds largest economy and them going through a tough patch. Is it their fault everyone trades with them?

AND WHO ARE THEY BLAMING? PLEASE LINK A SOURCE

If you suggest ignorance being against the commercial realm of fake advertising (Team America) and actually having the insight in rather trying to focus on building our own nation without being compared to the US, then yes.

What are you on about?
I referred to your thread title being "Doofus"

 

[Arthur]

The Doofus, is to exclaim the dire straight the US are in and how they are trying to bull**** the rest of the world including their own investors, in thinking they are actually floating.

Second they would rather place blame on the rest of the world for the economic crisis when they should be looking at themselves as they are the actual cause. Typical American always suggest the grass is greener somewhere else so they can concur it and blame anyone else.

If you suggest ignorance being against the commercial realm of fake advertising (Team America) and actually having the insight in rather trying to focus on building our own nation without being compared to the US, then yes.

This is an argument?

Case closed! Doofus established.

 

[boramk]

Firstly you must be joking? So I mustn’t base my thesis on my own thoughts. Should I plagiarise someone else’s, should I beg a dumb American to adopt their delinquent baby boomer philosophy on life.

NO. I don't care about what you think about what is going on about the world economy, just state a ****ing source.
And do you even know what a baby boomer is to use that in your sentence? Did you know your dads a baby boomer? Or is it just fun pinning it on Americans?

FACT: Banks go bankrupt in the US as we speak and you are telling me I’m petty on MY OWN thoughts.

America's doofus economy

it’s a FACT, the rest of the world are more productive than Americans.

So it's Americans vs the world?
You compared China and India to America based on productivity and we have already provided sources and stats indicting otherwise.

Dude, I never stated that I want to go back to the stone age. READ…I reaffirmed the point of socially constructive moral values. This might come as a shocker to you, I’ll whisper it for you…You don’t need money for everything in life…EXCEPT IF YOU’RE AN AMERICAN.

You love generalisations huh?
You did say it would be fun if America goes bankrupt and we all go back to a simpler life (that sorts). Dig it up yourself.

YouTube, so if I see all the videos and have discussions like these on forums, you’re telling me I’m naive and should rather bow down to America? F@ck yea…

YES THATS MY POINT. BOW TO AMERICA.
Wow you are naive.

"America is going to fall because, the dollar is getting weaker mwahaha"
Thats a youtube video.

And to be honest. All these talks of the fall of America and trade has come off since Bush's term (2001 onwards). His the idiot who screwed the USA so the world.

 

[vxv]

Your confidence is misplaced.

According to any research by any organisation you care to mention you're wrong. The US worker is the most productive on earth, by far. In certain sectors, China's most productive industries are approaching Japan's productivity, was lags the USA by about 8% (a very significant margin, if you understand how producivity leverages economic performance). The best Indian industries are even further behind. This is true despite the dollars decline in relative terms.

You must be joking, here is just the REAL GDP growth rate:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gdp_real_growth_rate_2007_CIA_Factbook.PNG

1. Real GDP growth is GDP growth adjusted for price changes.
Calculating the real GDP growth allows economists to determine if production increased or decreased, regardless of changes in the purchasing power of the currency.

(You are wrong because I suspect your impressions are gleaned from the mass media and general hype about India and China's industrial growth over past decade. Yes they have surged in high percentages, but off a tiny base in comparison to the USA. Despite the ignorant hype of many commentators, China is not nearly close to world economic dominance. It was ony recently that China's entire economy surpassed Italy's, with a rather large population disparity.)

I don’t watch mass media and don’t even have a TV at home. I read no hype of any sort on India or China, I listen to the financial markets. And yes, exactly that’s what they done in two decades imagine 10. In a national sense in the US yes, but that is mostly due to the oil they had before the 70’s, now they conquer oil to ensure growth. Anyone who knows history will understand why a communist economic business model works. Also remember how big China is, and how many indigenous conflict and decentralised population they have that are not part of the economic agenda yet.

International Labor Organization Their Factbook 2008 is an invaluable source. Latest ILO report: "What’s more, the report also shows that the productivity gap between the US and most other developed economies continued to widen. The acceleration of productivity growth in the US has outpaced that of many other developed economies..."
One of many reports by REITI (Research Institute of Economy, Trade, Industry), and another
UK Govt paper on international productivity comparisons
One of many OECD reports

... there are hundreds more. Can you cite any authoritative sources to back your claim?

I’ll use yours:
“In East Asia where productivity levels showed the fastest increase, doubling in ten years, output per worker was up from one-eighth in 1996 to one-fifth of the level found in the industrialized countries in 2006. “

The context of that article was productivity, employment, labour market. The relation was to the labour environment, however the article does support your argument.

Some of the links only show the US and some are before 1985 and 1990. If you reference http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0206.html Table 1 Annual growth rate:

China 2.04%
Korea 0.6%
Taiwan 2.44%
Japan 0.42%
And US 0.61%

So China and Taiwan have 4 times higher annual growth rate. This was only for the year 2000.

In the period 2000-2006 only Taiwan, Sweden and Korea had productivity increases greater than the USA, but in overall productivity per worker in virtual all sectors the USA leads the world. Remember, productivity increases measure only productivity growth relative to previous levels obtaining in that country, not the actual productivity in comparison to other countries. Thus Burundi for example can lead the world in productivity increase but still be only one-fortieth as productive as say a Japanese worker.

Your own table on you link justifies the opposite as indicate above. Just to make my approach clear. Mine is more of the East against the West rather than a specific country.

I enjoyed the articles you submitted, thanks.

The general nonsense peddled about the USA economy is staggeringly naive, so it's little wonder people suffer from misapprehensions. It's astonishing how many people genuinely think the USA economy consists largely of do-nothing managers sitting in offices shuffling paper, and hamburger-flippers and 7/11 checkout clerks. They forget that when Americans (and their media) complain about exported manufacturing industries, for example, or the "gutting of America's industrial base", they are speaking in comparative terms the rest of the planet can barely comprehend. America's domestic manufacturing & industrial base is still by far the largest, most productive and most profitable on the planet, and by a very long measure. Even with the rise of China and India, America remains the 900lb gorilla in industrial output.

The general nonsense is five bankrupt banks, imagine if one bank failed in our country. Then imagine the 1913 bankruptcy scare n the US and also our own Santam one. People need to start investing their own money rather than slaving it away to banks with interest. I agree their agriculture is strong but I must be honest I’m one of them that think they are a bunch of burger flippers and lawyer trying to justify their advertised profit. I hear you, I’ll try and find some content to justify your argument or mine. I agree the US is strong now, but In my opinion their bubble burst when their oil tanked and they know if you’re in war it can be profitable in moving money between the reserve and the state. Their interest in deficit is catching up with them.

Thanks for the strong arguments.

 

[vxv]

US foreign reserve in comparison to China:

"If one compares China's $1650bn in foreign reserves with the US's $62bn, the direction in which money power is shifting is clear. "

http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-25_2398076

 

[Arthur]

I’ll use yours:
“In East Asia where productivity levels showed the fastest increase, doubling in ten years, output per worker was up from one-eighth in 1996 to one-fifth of the level found in the industrialized countries in 2006. “

Yes, that is rate of increase, not actual productivity. As I said in the Burundi example, you can increase productivity by 10% a year for 5 years and still end up only half your competitor's actual productivity. It all depends on your starting base. The rate ony compares to your previous level.

US foreign reserve in comparison to China:

"If one compares China's $1650bn in foreign reserves with the US's $62bn, the direction in which money power is shifting is clear. "
http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-25_2398076

The USA is the haven for the rest of the world's foreign reserves. These figures more ir less prove the point. China has such huge foreign reserves because they are not invested locally but abroad. The USA has such small foreign reserves because everyone puts their money in the USA. Why? Because it has a doofus economy?

 

[Turiko]

I am glad I quit this thread... what a flamefest.

If one compares China's $1650bn in foreign reserves with the US's $62bn, the direction in which money power is shifting is clear

+1

I would like to hear what song all the I LOVE USA people in this thread are going to sing about 5-10 years from now when nothing gets manufactured or designed in the US anymore.

 

[icyrus]

I would like to hear what song all the I LOVE USA people in this thread are going to sing about 5-10 years from now when nothing gets manufactured or designed in the US anymore.

Why do you imagine that will happen?

As an aside, why do you think that China and India are currently sought after destinations for manufacturing jobs? (I am not disputing that they are, rather I am interested in what reasons you would attribute to it)

 

[vxv]

Doofus American Economy?

If the US is a doofus economy, then by comparison, SA's economy must be a Shytehole African Banana Republic Economy and you, vxv, must be a banana picker in that economy.

The wealthiest 10 people in the US are probably worth more than the entire SA GDP, and if that isn't the case right now, they will be in the future, with doofus Zuma and his looney crew coming to power next week.

LOL, we’ve (SA) only been busy for just more than a decade and look where we are now. That’s exactly my point, other countries are moving up were the US are slowing down. We have a lot of resources and potential. LOL, we are all banana pickers in SA, however I know for a fact that the most rich and effective people remove their money they made in SA to another country.

But it’s interesting to see the richest people are not in the US. http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/10/billionaires08_The-Worlds-Billionaires_Rank.html

They might be seeing them their due to either Microsoft (which is deserved) and oil.

1 Warren Buffett
United States 77 62.0 United States
2 Carlos Slim Helu & family
Mexico 68 60.0 Mexico
3 William Gates III
United States 52 58.0 United States
4 Lakshmi Mittal
India 57 45.0 United Kingdom
5 Mukesh Ambani
India 50 43.0 India
6 Anil Ambani
India 48 42.0 India
7 Ingvar Kamprad & family
Sweden 81 31.0 Switzerland
8 KP Singh
India 76 30.0 India
9 Oleg Deripaska
Russia 40 28.0 Russia
10 Karl Albrecht
Germany 88 27.0 Germany
11 Li Ka-shing
Hong Kong 79 26.5 Hong Kong
12 Sheldon Adelson
United States 74 26.0 United States
13 Bernard Arnault
France 59 25.5 France
14 Lawrence Ellison
United States 63 25.0 United States
15 Roman Abramovich
Russia 41 23.5 Russia
16 Theo Albrecht
Germany 85 23.0 Germany
17 Liliane Bettencourt
France 85 22.9 France
18 Alexei Mordashov
Russia 42 21.2 Russia
19 Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Alsaud
Saudi Arabia 51 21.0 Saudi Arabia
20 Mikhail Fridman
Russia 43 20.8 Russia
21 Vladimir Lisin
Russia 51 20.3 Russia
22 Amancio Ortega
Spain 72 20.2 Spain
23 Raymond, Thomas & Walter Kwok
Hong Kong NA 19.9 Hong Kong
24 Mikhail Prokhorov
Russia 42 19.5 Russia
25 Vladimir Potanin
Russia 47 19.3 Russia

Well Zuma is a different story, but our democracy is working. Mbeki might just use that exact democratic constitution we have against them. Also Zuma likes China, probably because they are easier in bribing.

 

[vxv]

Oh, it is.

As for the people who think I have an issue with the USA, well I don't I just think there are better countries out there than the United States.

As for the industrial output, I am not stupid, seeing American brand named equipment passing through my factory with Chinese writing on it and stickers saying "MADE IN CHINA"

How can Chinese labour output be passed off as American industrial base? At the moment, I am not too sure what America's industrial output is, but, it won't last for long. Nobody can compete with the Far East. The cost of labour remains the key issue. Nobody in the West wants to work 12-hour shifts for a pittance. The Chinese will gladly do it.

Dude, you rock. ALL MADE IN CHINA.

 

[boramk]

I am glad I quit this thread... what a flamefest.


+1

I would like to hear what song all the I LOVE USA people in this thread are going to sing about 5-10 years from now when nothing gets manufactured or designed in the US anymore.

China is an export driven country and America's trade deficit can be blamed for that.
I'm, just hoping it gets fixed by the next administration, Bush messed everything up

 

[Turiko]

why do you think that China and India are currently sought after destinations for manufacturing jobs?

1) The cost to make a product in China is cheaper than having it made here in terms of input labour cost. And here we constantly have to beg and plead with people here every day to get them to do the job they are paid to do- yet if we don't pay them in full and on time, big **** for us we get taken to the CCMA.

2) We have to put up with their trade unions and the time they take off work to strike which chases up the input costs astronomically. We cannot fire unproductive people because of the protection afforded to them by the CCMA.

It costs money in terms of labour to make anything in this world. China offers the cheapest route, and you don't have the complication of putting up with a lazy workforce and their unions and their strike crap. The Chinese will gladly do what we term "sh1tty jobs" i.e. stuff like repetitive, laborious manual assembly. Stuff that makes any sane person go off the deep end within a week.

I have a unique knowledge about manufacturing consumer electronics and appliances. I've been around the block many times, and even here in crappy SA, it is a daily consideration whether to can the factory and go East, or to keep the factory running and keep these unthankful lazy people employed.

 

[vxv]

No reputable stats-keepers are passing Chinese manufactured goods off as American. Certainly OECD and DoL stats don't, and above stats (or below) do not include offshore manufactured goods. OECD, IMF, World Bank and other stats keepers allocate value-chain portions appropriately.

Let's keep some perspective:

USA GDP: $13.8 trillion
China GDP: $3.2 trillion
India GDP: $1.2 trillion

ie USA economy is >3 times larger than China and India combined. In fact, China + India is almost equal to Japan.

Then factor is population, and you get a rough idea of just how big the gap is.

Yes, lets have perspective: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gdp_real_growth_rate_2007_CIA_Factbook.PNG