What the Heck, Rand?

MacNabs said:
then the rand should be improving against the dollar during there times. Not losing its value to it.
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Not necessarily. The Dollar has appreciated because of good news about the bail-out of the banks. However, this measure does not address the the underlying causes of the financial crisis which was due to the expansion of credit. Throwing money at the banks is one thing but dropping interest rates to prevent an inevitable recession is another. It was low interest rates between 2001 and 2004 that caused the credit boom in the first place. The interest rates tightened to 6% which caused most of the mortgage defaults. Now interest rates have dropped again to 2.5% in order to stimulate the economy. It seems as the solution but it is the very cause of the crisis. At least this country has structures in place to control spending as if there was no tomorrow. It's been painful for many but we are are on the right course. The US is, however, in an election year. No hard steps will be taken until the outcome is announced. Even then, the necessary policy shifts to sort out the current financial mess and to prevent any future occurrences, will take years to filter through the system.
 
To put this into perspective, I February/March I authorised the payment of US$35000. It was done at R6.87/US$.
 
Platinum guys Platinum, I have dropped R 20k on Platinum as that is a winner, and they dropped nicely before I bought :p

Gold is just to much of a risk for me
 
Arthur said:
My view is platinum will drop with automakers' slowdown.
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I have made the choice even with Platinum dropping it will recover, it always has. I'm not in need of the money for a long time. So I think I bought at the right time..... only time will tell :o
 
Currently:

EURO dropping
Dollar gaining
Yen gaining
Pound more or less stable
Rand dropping

In the long run, Euro and Pound will plummet (what has Europe and Britain to offer?),
US in the long run is the way to go.
 
Ozymandias said:
Not necessarily. The Dollar has appreciated because of good news about the bail-out of the banks. However, this measure does not address the the underlying causes of the financial crisis which was due to the expansion of credit. Throwing money at the banks is one thing but dropping interest rates to prevent an inevitable recession is another. It was low interest rates between 2001 and 2004 that caused the credit boom in the first place. The interest rates tightened to 6% which caused most of the mortgage defaults. Now interest rates have dropped again to 2.5% in order to stimulate the economy. It seems as the solution but it is the very cause of the crisis. At least this country has structures in place to control spending as if there was no tomorrow. It's been painful for many but we are are on the right course. The US is, however, in an election year. No hard steps will be taken until the outcome is announced. Even then, the necessary policy shifts to sort out the current financial mess and to prevent any future occurrences, will take years to filter through the system.
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basically what this man has said.

Here's what I got from some research
The USD/ZAR fell more than 3% yesterday to about 8.52 from the previous day’s 8.24. However, on a trade-weighted nominal effective basis the rand’s depreciation was much less pronounced, with the effective exchange rate depreciating 0.8% on the day. In addition, other emerging market currencies and equity markets were also under pressure, with the USD/BRL depreciating more than 5% and the USD/TRY about 3.5%. Asian markets also remain under pressure today, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices down by 1.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Consequently, some of the rand’s fall yesterday can be ascribed to USD strength, emerging market jitters and falling international commodity prices. In the near term, developments on international financial markets and emerging market concerns are likely to dominate ZAR trends. However, we believe that potential FDI inflows in the telecoms and steel industry could provide near-term support, with a bias towards strength. However, from a fundamental perspective, South Africa’s large current account deficit (7.3% of GDP in Q2 08) and its associated financing requirement continue to suggest a longer-term depreciating trend.
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PPL, don't you see? We all being brainwashed. this is part of the New World Order. Eventually we will have ONE currency and one world government to rules us. What better way to install panic worldwide! To create a dependancy. Zeitgeist!!!!
 
MacNabs said:
so now the new set value of the rand is 8.25? What happened to it being just over 7.50 just a month ago? A real recovery would be to the R5.50 something where it was about a year ago. Personally in these times i would be very worried if my money was tied up in rands.
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Exactly. The Rand drops from R8.50 per $ down to say R8.25 and people claim it "recovered". :rolleyes:

It was well under R8.00 a few weeks ago before the US markets went down. I predicted that the Rand would just go down and down but then I was told that I was talking bullsh1t. Look where the Rand is now. It may recover in short stints but the global markets will just crash every 3 months and the Rand will never fully recover again. As I predicted.

I have massive investments in Euros. Unfortunately the Euro is also now weaker, but much more resistant to markets falling than the $. Or the R for that matter. When the Euro gains strength again, the Rand will still be low and then a massive favourable R-€ exchange rate will result. At that point I will transfer funds from € to R to fund my re-rentry into the SA market. BAM!! Cold hard fat cash in Rands.
 
PythonFSi said:
PPL, don't you see? We all being brainwashed. this is part of the New World Order. Eventually we will have ONE currency and one world government to rules us. What better way to install panic worldwide! To create a dependancy. Zeitgeist!!!!
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Hush. How the hell am I supposed to take over the world when someone keeps pointing out my covert activities the whole time....:D

Oh and its dependency.
 
Skinner said:
Exactly. The Rand drops from R8.50 per $ down to say R8.25 and people claim it "recovered". :rolleyes:

It was well under R8.00 a few weeks ago before the US markets went down. I predicted that the Rand would just go down and down but then I was told that I was talking bullsh1t. Look where the Rand is now. It may recover in short stints but the global markets will just crash every 3 months and the Rand will never fully recover again. As I predicted.

I have massive investments in Euros. Unfortunately the Euro is also now weaker, but much more resistant to markets falling than the $. Or the R for that matter. When the Euro gains strength again, the Rand will still be low and then a massive favourable R-€ exchange rate will result. At that point I will transfer funds from € to R to fund my re-rentry into the SA market. BAM!! Cold hard fat cash in Rands.
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well a recovery in the financial markets is always relative to the starting point you choose. The rand has never recoverd from being stronger than the dollar. It has recovered from being at 13 though. Just like the dollar has recovered from 1.60 at its current 1.3860. But never recovered to being stronger than the euro at 0.80.

As to the direction the rand will take, I would largely agree that it remains vulnerable to weakness in an environment where emerging markets are not in favour and where fears about world growth will cause commodity prices to weaken. Add on top of that large infrastructure spending which in the main requires offshore capex expenditure. However whether that means a return 13 or a move to 9, I would not know.
 
HavocXphere said:
Hush. How the hell am I supposed to take over the world when someone keeps pointing out my covert activities the whole time....:D

Oh and its dependency.
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Maybe if you quit this forum you could actually get on with the job of taking over the world instead of rectifying peoples spelling mistakes.
 
PythonFSi said:
Maybe if you quit this forum you could actually get on with the job of taking over the world instead of rectifying peoples spelling mistakes.
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*cough* That's "people's" note the possessive apostrophe ;)

Kidding! Kidding!

Anyway, I'm sure the Rand will eventually settle back into a satisfactory lulling about. It always has before. If it doesn't, then winning the lottery won't make me feel any better if all I can do with it is buy a bag of potatoes.
 
MacNabs said:
so now the new set value of the rand is 8.25? What happened to it being just over 7.50 just a month ago? A real recovery would be to the R5.50 something where it was about a year ago. Personally in these times i would be very worried if my money was tied up in rands.
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The last time the Rand was under 7.50 was the 7th of August.

Incedently the Rand is UP compared to the Pound and the Euro since June this year, it is the Dollar that is up, not the rand that is down.
 
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