Why ANC need never worry about losing

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Gushesh

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Over the last 200 years South Africa has been ruled by at least four types of political elite: indigenous African aristocracy, British imperialists, Afrikaner landowners and black upper class.
Each of these groups has had its own perspective on economic development.

The indigenous aristocracy was completely opposed to the introduction of private ownership of land. Private property is one of the key preconditions to economic development. The indigenous aristocracy was also opposed to many aspects of modern science, especially Western medicine, and it saw Christianity as a force that undermined its rule.

By contrast, during British imperialism's control of South Africa from 1795 to 1910, Britain was a leading industrial and military power in the world but saw no need to bring economic development to South Africa.

The British objective in South Africa was to control the Cape sea route. It was only when it was realised that South Africa had large deposits of diamonds and gold that the British took an interest in developing the South African economy, but its concept of South Africa's development did not extend beyond extracting these two minerals.

The Afrikaner nationalist landowners in most of South Africa were largely pastoralists who raised cattle, sheep and horses. There was a small group that grew wheat and grapes for wine-making.

So, until well into the 20th century, South Africa's agriculture remained underdeveloped. After this group took power from the British in 1910, it started to promote some economic development.

Their objective was to make the land they owned more profitable. Their first initiative after coming to power was to establish the Land Bank in 1910. The Afrikaner nationalist elite wanted to invest in the building of South Africa's transportation and communication infrastructure.

It also had to build educational institutions to provide white citizens with expertise in all aspects of agriculture.

As an incentive to investors, this elite group made available a dependable supply of cheap labour from South Africa's black population. All of these efforts culminated in the South African economy becoming the largest in Africa, generating almost a quarter of the continent's gross domestic product.

The black upper middle class that became South Africa's dominant political elite in 1994 was a class of intellectuals rather than of property owners. Its main objective in its pursuit of political power was not to protect or develop its property, because it did not have any.

Its main objective was to bring about equality among the races and redistribute some of the white-owned wealth to the blacks.

To achieve political equality, this elite fought for democracy, which was eventually achieved in 1994. To achieve economic equality, it adopted a policy of wealth redistribution.

There is, however, a downside to an economic strategy predominantly driven by wealth redistribution - it diverts resources from investment to consumption.

This is already beginning to show with the growing de-industrialisation of the country's economy. The scramble for wealth redistribution has also become a main driver of corruption.

The enclave economy that Hendrik Verwoerd, the architect of apartheid, was so eloquent about is thus perpetuated under the ANC government. To maintain its power, the ANC developed welfare programmes that appease the huge underclass.

There is no better-positioned organisation on the South African political landscape than the ANC.

If its voters remain poor, the ANC wins because they vote for it. In the very unlikely event that they become richer - for example, through "tenderpreneurship" - they will still vote for the ANC because they want to be on the list for the next tender.

Voters for the ANC do not vote for it for ideological or policy reasons; they vote for it primarily because of their material dependence on the ANC-controlled state.

A November 2009 Ipsos Markinor survey found that two-thirds of the people who vote for the ANC do not work. Of the one-third who do, slightly less than a quarter work full-time and about a tenth work part time.

Even more striking is the ANC voters' education levels:

â– Only 8% of ANC supporters have a higher-education qualification;
â– 23% have graduated from high school; and
â– 69% either have no education or have not completed high school.
The primary constituency of the ANC is poor blacks.

â– This is an edited extract from the introduction to Advocates for Change: How to Overcome Africa's Challenges, edited by Mbeki and published by Picador
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http://www.timeslive.co.za/opinion/commentary/2011/07/05/why-anc-need-never-worry-about-losing
 
I don't buy that at all. If this were true than the ANC would have walked all over the DA in the recent elections. That was clearly not the case and the ANC came close to losing several large municipalities. If they don't improve their game (and they won't) they will definitely lose them next time. Same goes for the next general election. I think many ANC will be surprised (terrified) by the gains the DA will make in the 2014 general election, and their own significant losses.

The ANC will never get 2/3rds majority ever again and their support will drop come 2014. The ANC will still win, but it will be a far narrower margin than in previous elections, of that I am sure. The masses are becoming disillusioned with the ANC's empty promises.
 
D.B.Cooper said:
The ANC will never get 2/3rds majority ever again and their support will drop come 2014. The ANC will still win, but it will be a far narrower margin than in previous elections, of that I am sure. The masses are becoming disillusioned with the ANC's empty promises.
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The optimist in me wishes that were true. But when speaking in passing to my (educated, middle-class) neighbours, it became clear that they support the ANC for more than simple, objective, realistic reasons. There's some weird subjective (perhaps tribal) loyalty at play which keeps them voting for the ANC, even when it is clear that the leaders are lying, corrupt crooks.

The pessimist sees a population of misinformed people who are unable to see past the lies because the same leadership ensures that there's insufficient education to empower their supporters to make critical and informed decisions for themselves. Instead, the voting masses are glamoured by free food and clothes and promises of free housing. It becomes hard for real-world, objective facts to win over factors like ignorance-through-sustained-poor-education, overwhelming tribal loyalty and the promise of lavish lifestyles akin to the fatcats in their Mercs and Range Rovers. Without improving the level of education in SA, it's going to take a disaster to wake people up to the fact that they're keeping crooks in power. We may face a few very serious social issues before people realize that the leadership needs to be replaced, and then it may be too late. I'm hesitant to compare SA to Zim, but the parallels are clear: economically-strong country with a large uneducated population who follow corrupt leaders. Even when that country has all-but-collapsed, the leadership still manages to fleece the ignorant masses. We're not so different, I'm afraid.
 
Ok, I guess I will just keep it simple and cut to the chase.

It's about RACE, you know it, I know it. ANC will continue to win unless another party(or DA) has a BLACK PERSON(includes "coloured") as the presidential candidate. You have to remember it was literally less than 30 years ago when Black people were given a voice, a lot of the people who suffered apartheid are still alive, and those who benefited from it are also alive. How in the hell do you expect people who have been oppressed to make a 360 change and vote for the same people[not all of them] that put them in chains?

The votes might waver in favor of the DA a little bit but they will never win not until they make some big changes aka more black people in power. Otherwise, forget it.
 
I'm definitely buying that book by Thabo Mbeki's brother, seems like it's a must read.
 
And we have the poster boys for the uneducated. Zumatello, who only passed Std 8 because it was the last class room on the way out of the school. And Malema, who is dumber than the lump of wood he couldn't sand.

Who needs an education to be fat and rich?
 
"was a class of intellectuals rather than of property owners"

I thought this was quite funny!!! Bwahahahahahaha!!!!
 
VioAdmin said:
Ok, I guess I will just keep it simple and cut to the chase.

It's about RACE, you know it, I know it. ANC will continue to win unless another party(or DA) has a BLACK PERSON(includes "coloured") as the presidential candidate. You have to remember it was literally less than 30 years ago when Black people were given a voice, a lot of the people who suffered apartheid are still alive, and those who benefited from it are also alive. How in the hell do you expect people who have been oppressed to make a 360 change and vote for the same people[not all of them] that put them in chains?

The votes might waver in favor of the DA a little bit but they will never win not until they make some big changes aka more black people in power. Otherwise, forget it.
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Agreed. Except that I don't think blacks will vote for a coloured. Nor an Indian.
 
Palimino said:
No, they didn’t and no it wasn’t (achieved in 1994). This abortion is not democracy, no matter how often the fat-cats insist it is.
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Because they don't vote the way you want them to, doesn't mean it is no longer democracy.
 
Geriatrix said:
Agreed. Except that I don't think blacks will vote for a coloured. Nor an Indian.
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Indian, probably not, but coloured yes, they will vote for coloured more than the white candidates, this is a fact. Blacks and "Coloured" are usually in the same neighborhood and in each family you find both sides interlinked...To me it's another fake "race" created by the Apartheid era.
 
VioAdmin said:
Ok, I guess I will just keep it simple and cut to the chase.

It's about RACE, you know it, I know it. ANC will continue to win unless another party(or DA) has a BLACK PERSON(includes "coloured") as the presidential candidate. You have to remember it was literally less than 30 years ago when Black people were given a voice, a lot of the people who suffered apartheid are still alive, and those who benefited from it are also alive. How in the hell do you expect people who have been oppressed to make a 360 change and vote for the same people[not all of them] that put them in chains?

The votes might waver in favor of the DA a little bit but they will never win not until they make some big changes aka more black people in power. Otherwise, forget it.
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+1

The DA should focus on winning over young black people who have not been tainted by the experience of apartheid. It's these black people who are most likely to vote for a party without a black leader. Many black people adults, educated or not, have forever been scarred by apartheid and will probably have some sort of grudge against white people until they die. Some continue to vote ANC out of some sense of loyalty because it was this party that finally freed them.

The DA have certainly got their work cut out for them though. Even if young black people didn't directly experience apartheid directly they are certainly experiencing the after-effects. Enter the ANCYL that capitalises on these after-effects and tell young black people over and over that if it weren't for "them", "we" wouldn't be in this mess in the first place, "they" will never see us as equals anyway etc etc.

Jola said:
I don't agree, in general blacks will not vote for a coloured person.
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I think they would. Black people and coloureds grind along fairly well, especially among young people. They hang out together, have family members that live in townships/know what township life is really like, are stereotypically into the same pop culture (hip hop, R&B etc.), black/coloured couples are not uncommon etc. So a black person voting for a coloured person isn't that much of a stretch.
 
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The enclave economy that Hendrik Verwoerd, the architect of apartheid, was so eloquent about is thus perpetuated under the ANC government. To maintain its power, the ANC developed welfare programmes that appease the huge underclass.

There is no better-positioned organisation on the South African political landscape than the ANC.

If its voters remain poor, the ANC
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Tried and tested leftist modus operandi. It's never about "helping the poor" it's about control
 
Why Rome need never worry about losing
Why the Mongol Empire need never worry about losing
Why Natzi Germany need never worry about losing
Why Qaddafi need never worry about losing
Why indigenous African aristocracy need never worry about losing
Why British imperialists need never worry about losing
Why ANC need never worry about losing

Dont understand first the author shows how us why and how rulers (partys) self destroy - then he claims it will never be repeated.
pfft...in our life time there will be change (for better or worse)
 
Kompete said:
Why Rome need never worry about losing
Why the Mongol Empire need never worry about losing
Why Natzi Germany need never worry about losing
Why Qaddafi need never worry about losing
Why indigenous African aristocracy need never worry about losing
Why British imperialists need never worry about losing
Why ANC need never worry about losing

Dont understand first the author shows how us why and how rulers (partys) self destroy - then he claims it will never be repeated.
pfft...in our life time there will be change (for better or worse)
Click to expand...

Based on history...itll be for the better. Things get better over time... its just really slow.
 
Jola said:
I don't agree, in general blacks will not vote for a coloured person.
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Not true at all. I for example, have "coloured" family cousins that stretch from here to the USA. I mean, in the US/Europe there is really no such thing as "coloured" they just identify themselves as black. They are by FAR accepted by the blacks than their other half, this we all know.

Even in the aparthied era, it's not like the "coloured" were protected, hell no, they were also beaten and killed and placed with the blacks. Look at Obama, he would be considered "coloured" here in SA but in most countries, he is simply seen as a black man...he calls HIMSELF a black man, my POINT BEING...It is South Africa that creates the illusion of even more races than we can handle. I think it was a strategy of 'divide and conquer' by the apartheid supporters and to some extent it has worked.

Here in cape town blacks and coloured as said by a previous poster, especially the youth, mix and hang out as if we are one and that's the way it should be, enough boundaries, they only bring problems.
 
The problem with South African democracy is that there is no effective non-govt media in place. And the blame for that is not the ANC, but the South African public themselves.

Look at Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Iran.

And in the last week what had happened to the News of the World in the UK.

Electronic social media is transforming the world. It's instant. It beats traditional news, even Television. TV news actually follow.

The technology is available to South Africa. But isnt used. The sooner ordinary black South Africans get access to the Internet the better. I don't mean middle class. Those struggling to make a living need access. When that happens the ANC will be serverly punished for it's broken promises.

Criticism of the ANC has to transcend black/White politics. The seeds are there because of the ANC's lack of delivery, but they are able to deflect that because they can control the info that most people get.
 
Jola said:
I don't agree, in general blacks will not vote for a coloured person.
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How do the likes of Jessie Duarte, Trevor Manuel, Lynne Brown, Pallo Jordan , etc get so many votes for the ANC NEC elections? :confused::confused::confused:
Surely, they aren't that many coloureds in the ANC to vote for them:erm:
 
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