Zimbabwe - Next Stop, War.

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LoneGunman

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Seeing that Tsvangirai has (probably rightfully) decided that there's too much slaughter, torture, mayhem, beatings and killings of pro-democracy supporters in Zim, to carry on with the absurd idea of pretending to have a 'democratic' election run off -

it looks like SA and the region is about to see the next potential steps.

Based on the standard African political models - its probably going to be a bush war, with pro-democrats MDC, finding a safe haven or havens in neighboring countries, in which they'll gradually/rapidly train, and then start launching attacks on Zimbabwean infrastructure (such as it is).

Given the regional injection of Chinese arms and influence - folks in SA better hope that China does not decide to bring in its own forces to 'secure' its investments. Because then, the US will do the same, and SA will be caught between the superpowers.

There's too much resentment now in Zimbabwe, for the MDC and its people, to simply 'go quiet' - and historically, what's going to happen next, is what I described above.
Guerrilla warfare and a liberation struggle.

HOWEVER...

SA has also dug a very deep grave for itself, if this happens - because the MDC hold SA and the ANC government, firmly responsible for the propping up of Mugabe's regime for so long.
And again, one can only hope that if/when the liberation war against Mugabe begins to heat up, that SA isn't targeted - or worse - allows itself to be drawn in on the side of Mugabe, because then SA WILL become targeted by the MDC and pro-democracy movements already inside SA.
(Given that there are millions of Zimbabweans inside SA's borders at present, many of them well educated and deeply angry at what SA has allowed to happen,
this'll be a recipe for major urban warfare and unrest erupting.)

Time will tell...

The ANC has dug a big trap for itself, and the country as a whole - lets see now whether it steps into it, or has the brains to contain what's probably about to happen..

Naturally, I hope I'm wrong on all counts - as SA won't really survive too well, in most of the possible scenario's listed above.
 
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there will be no war now

war would have happened if morgan had come into power

nothing will happen now, its over
 
LoneGunman said:
Given the regional injection of Chinese arms and influence - folks in SA better hope that China does not decide to bring in its own forces to 'secure' its investments. Because then, the US will do the same, and SA will be caught between the superpowers.
Click to expand...

I think you overestimate the importance of Zim to both China and the US tbh.
 
China is moving heavily into Africa.

It has investments in over 30 different African countries - its after the oil and minerals, which the US have blocked it from grabbing in the Middle East. China HAS to come into Africa, which is what its doing. Its all about protection of investments.
read China, Africa, and Oil
http://www.cfr.org/publication/9557/
read China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States
http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/bg1916.cfm

Its (China's) already shown what it thinks of 'human rights' - and has shown that its happy to sell vast quantities of arms to dictators like Mugabe.

Its not unlikely that - should China decide to up its stake in Africa, if a regional war of liberation begins, that the US will do counter moves.

and BTW
Across Africa, whenever a dictator crushes the democracy movements, that movement eventually turns into a liberation force and an armed conflict begins.

That's 'routine' for Africa.
 
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LoneGunman said:
China is moving heavily into Africa.

It has investments in over 30 different African countries - its after the oil and minerals, which the US have blocked it from grabbing in the Middle East. China HAS to come into Africa, which is what its doing. Its all about protection of investments.
read China, Africa, and Oil
http://www.cfr.org/publication/9557/
read China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States
http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/bg1916.cfm
Click to expand...

I agree but they're also very worried about their international standing and how they're perceived so I can't see them sending in troops to prop up a tin pot dictator like Mugabe, it'd be easier and cheaper to just cut a deal with the MDC. I'll have a look at those links though, thanks.
 
There will be no war. Morgans followers have been getting their asses kicked for the last few months by zanu-pf thugs, they couldnt fight back then so why would they now.

And as all Zims neighbours support mugabe they will never let MDC train in their countries.
 
LoneGunman said:
Seeing that Tsvangirai has (probably rightfully) decided that there's too much slaughter, torture, mayhem, beatings and killings of pro-democracy supporters in Zim, to carry on with the absurd idea of pretending to have a 'democratic' election run off -

it looks like SA and the region is about to see the next potential steps.

Based on the standard African political models - its probably going to be a bush war, with pro-democrats MDC, finding a safe haven or havens in neighboring countries, in which they'll gradually/rapidly train, and then start launching attacks on Zimbabwean infrastructure (such as it is).

Given the regional injection of Chinese arms and influence - folks in SA better hope that China does not decide to bring in its own forces to 'secure' its investments. Because then, the US will do the same, and SA will be caught between the superpowers.

There's too much resentment now in Zimbabwe, for the MDC and its people, to simply 'go quiet' - and historically, what's going to happen next, is what I described above.
Guerrilla warfare and a liberation struggle.

HOWEVER...

SA has also dug a very deep grave for itself, if this happens - because the MDC hold SA and the ANC government, firmly responsible for the propping up of Mugabe's regime for so long.
And again, one can only hope that if/when the liberation war against Mugabe begins to heat up, that SA isn't targeted - or worse - allows itself to be drawn in on the side of Mugabe, because then SA WILL become targeted by the MDC and pro-democracy movements already inside SA.
(Given that there are millions of Zimbabweans inside SA's borders at present, many of them well educated and deeply angry at what SA has allowed to happen,
this'll be a recipe for major urban warfare and unrest erupting.)

Time will tell...

The ANC has dug a big trap for itself, and the country as a whole - lets see now whether it steps into it, or has the brains to contain what's probably about to happen..

Naturally, I hope I'm wrong on all counts - as SA won't really survive too well, in most of the possible scenario's listed above.
Click to expand...

War will soon come to South Africa. It's inevitable.
 
LoneGunman said:
China is moving heavily into Africa.

It has investments in over 30 different African countries - its after the oil and minerals, which the US have blocked it from grabbing in the Middle East. China HAS to come into Africa, which is what its doing. Its all about protection of investments.
read China, Africa, and Oil
http://www.cfr.org/publication/9557/
read China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States
http://www.heritage.org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/bg1916.cfm

Its (China's) already shown what it thinks of 'human rights' - and has shown that its happy to sell vast quantities of arms to dictators like Mugabe.

Its not unlikely that - should China decide to up its stake in Africa, if a regional war of liberation begins, that the US will do counter moves.

and BTW
Across Africa, whenever a dictator crushes the democracy movements, that movement eventually turns into a liberation force and an armed conflict begins.

That's 'routine' for Africa.
Click to expand...

China already own a large part ofStandard Bank so I guess we are already pwned
 
drevil5000 said:
And as all Zims neighbours support mugabe they will never let MDC train in their countries.
Click to expand...

Neither Zambia nor Botswana have any time or tolerance of Mugabe, and they both border Zim.

As to China's involvement in Africa, it is purely economic, raw materials and whatever else they can buy, business for them is business, they will pay what is needed to get what is needed, including paying arms to get their raw materials.
Once they get what they need they will move on and get what they need alsewhere.
The Chinese are pure business, nothing more.
 
Genocide is more likely than war. One side holds all the arms.

I suppose it could come to a state of permanent civil unrest but Bob has enough guns, ammo and support to put it down rather quickly.
 
Africa is showing its true colours to the world. About time I'd say. Their eyes have been opened to he corruption and bad governance, so no more free pap to the hungry.
They estimate that only 20% of any aid to African countries reach the needy, the balance goes into the pockets and mouths of the officials (from CNN).
An uprising is probably unavoidable, but it will definitely spill over into SA. And there will be no winner.
 
This is all very worrying. If i ever get to meet T-Bone i'm going to kick him in the shin for all the crap he has got us into.
 
The cover of The Spectator magazine in the UK, 21 June.

Spectator_.jpg
 
Lonegunmen, do you think Zim's other neighbours should be doing more?
 
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