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Article: SA growth projections lower in 2011, 2012
- Thread starter rpm
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As far as I know we have been invited, but have not formally joined yet.
We have been invited and accepted. In April, Zuma will be attending the next BRICS summit as a full member. What more do you want?
You never know wht these people want. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
McSack
Executive Member
mmm interesting. Will be reading up on this very soon.
There was a very interesting perspective on SA's inclusion from some prof at SA institute of international affairs last year. Can't think of his name but as far as I can remember he was head of emarging markets and global challenges programme ...
I'll see if I can track it down.
I don't think everyone is too excited about SA's inclusion in the BRIC forum. Valid Pro's and Con's exist - it just seems as if guavamint is too keen for the exclusivity bragging rights rather than taking an objective look at what the benefits are vs. what it's going to cost us
I would like to get a squeeze on that critique. As far as I can see we stand to benefit a lot more than just being a token member. BRIC had a foothold on all the developing continents (Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe) except Africa. With the inclusion of SA it now covers all the developing continents. China as the biggest BRIC member is looking for a gateway into the rest of Africa. SA will provide the platform with all the infrastructure that we already have in place. China is our biggest trading partner at the moment and this trade relationship is going to improve even more.
Vrotappel
Bulls fan
Unfortunately we need to grow at much more than 3.4% to deliver on the promised jobs. At 3.4% unemployment will increase every year.
Well given that we have a tiny population compared to these counties, as well as geographic size, we actually have a favourably sized economy relative to the other BRICS. We have higher per capita income than all of them except slighly below Russia (very slightly). And Africa is basically the next Asia. The growth engine of the next 20 years with our cheap labour and resoures. South Africa is clearly being set up as hub for the region. If this plays we should benefit massively. Basically if it had gone to Nigeria etc you can bet those people who are trying to skew it in a negative light would be even more negative. Damned if you do, and damned if you don't.
No it won't. Were do you get this from ? Our population growth is 1% P/A.
Vrotappel
Bulls fan
Yes it will - population growth <> growth in people looking for jobs. Pravhin himself said we need to grow at 6.5%.
South Africa's Pravin Gordhan Says Faster Growth Needed to Meet Job Needs
scotty777
...doesn't know
Um, I was on wikipedia... and found something, um, interesting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate
Now, I want you to look for SA... just you going to have to scroll, a lot
.Um, I was on wikipedia... and found something, um, interesting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate
Now, I want you to look for SA... just you going to have to scroll, a lot
That list says 0.5%. Which means our GDP even further out matches our population growth. Are you trying to prove me right ?
Not making a meaningful impact does no equal job losses. It just means slower rate of new jobs. That's doesnt mean we will lose jobs is we don't achieve that GDP rate.
scotty777
...doesn't know
pretty much. There's less people to keep paying, meaning the ones we have now are also getting saturated, which means if our economy grows, our GDP per capita grows too.
However, there's a few things we must look at. Our current life expectancy is 53 and 55 for men and women, respectfully. This does mean that we could still have right numbers of people being introduced into the working sector, just they die to early to have a higher population growth.
However, our government must start relaxing the labour laws, and also must make South Africa a more viable place for companies to start up / move into. I read that the PWV area has the potential to become what the Eastern Seaboard megalopolis is to America. With the BRIC nations our in our grills now, I think we must start focusing on becoming a much more refined nation, with a lot more high-tech industries coming our way. With a lot of resources just a lil more north to us, South Africa could start to grow more rapidly if we just act like the middle man, perhaps even start becoming more the S. Korea/Japan of Africa.
Yes it's very true that it's a double edged sword. The reason some countries have high GDP growth is because of high population growth. Countries like Indonesia for example. People = Capital.
I agree with your model. I think we are moving along these lines. We should become the electronics and vehicle manufacturing sector to feed all the demand in Subsaharan Africa. We already through tiger brands, mtn, shoprite and the insurance and banking sector effectively supply a huge range of services and products to our neighbours (who put our GDP growth rate to shame).
Vrotappel
Bulls fan
Where did I post we will lose jobs? Job seekers will increase at a rate higher that the job creation rate. This will mean more people unemployed.
There's too little data to tell that. It would seem at 4+% GDP growth over the past 10 years and only 1% population growth in the same period that in fact highly likely job seekers will not exceed job creation. But I concede there are variables.
It's all crap imo.
The higher the growth rate or higher GDP; means only one thing, more consumption. The more we consume the faster the resources deplete. The aim of a healthy economy shouldn't just be about growth or a higher GDP. It should be about creating a equilibrium between our resources and the well being of the citizens. In other words the efficient use of our natural resources.
Sure a higher growth rate could possibly mean more jobs and maybe a better way of life for the citizens. However this is just a short fix. For if you run a linear system in a finite world, you will quickly run into a wall sooner or later (with dire consequences).
The higher the growth rate or higher GDP; means only one thing, more consumption. The more we consume the faster the resources deplete. The aim of a healthy economy shouldn't just be about growth or a higher GDP. It should be about creating a equilibrium between our resources and the well being of the citizens. In other words the efficient use of our natural resources.
Sure a higher growth rate could possibly mean more jobs and maybe a better way of life for the citizens. However this is just a short fix. For if you run a linear system in a finite world, you will quickly run into a wall sooner or later (with dire consequences).
Well technically it's the growth in what we produce. Who consumes it is a different thing. But yes I agree. A moderate GDP growth and a small population growth = more money per capita.