Boeing looking into passenger planes without pilots

Which would you rather have performing surgery on your brain: a surgeon with 100 hours of experience... or a surgeon that has literally every medical textbook ever written, committed to memory?

Which would you rather have flying you: a pilot with 100 hours of experience... or a pilot with literally every training manual, technical errata and NTSB accident report ever written, committed to memory?

Data is everything.



Nobody said it was cheap. But if it wasn't the future, one of the two largest aerospace companies on the planet wouldn't be investing in it, now would they?



As that article illustrates, fully a third of all aircraft accidents since 1950 have been due to pure pilot error, and if you factor weather into that, the number increases to almost half. Now, we don't have stats for how many crashes were averted due to pilot effort (e.g. miracle on the Hudson) but I'm willing to bet good money that in terms of human lives, that number is far lower than the number of lives lost.

Automate it all - pilots, air traffic controllers, the works.

I maintain, even with 8 flight computers you still see computers screw up on 40% of flights operated by an Airbus. Even if it was as low as 5%, that's still completely unacceptable. For me the debate isn't whether or not flights should eventually be automated or not, for me it's about the "when"...and let's be sure, the release of the A350 entrenched pilot operated aircraft into the world as a reality for the next 40 years - at least.

Latest forecasts published by Boeing show an incoming severe (like "crisis level" apparently) pilot shortage. I reckon funds which would have been spent on automation will be spent on training - Emirates and the other sandpit airlines have started doing so already.
 
Considering Airbus aircraft experience technical glitches on more than 40% of flights, nope, please, just no.

Hell, even single pilot ops would be unwise. Imagine if AI was in control of Qantas Flight 32 - more than 100 errors were detected and yet the 8 computers couldn't determine what the actual issue was.

Yeah. the pilot was playing Tetris on the instruments.
 
You need to compare that to how many saves were made by pilots against all odds where the computers said we give up everything is broken.

Here is a clue we would have lost an A380 by now then.
Yip. That Qantas A380 would habe come down, were it not for the pilots.

As well as the Miracle on the Hudson.
 
Which would you rather have performing surgery on your brain: a surgeon with 100 hours of experience... or a surgeon that has literally every medical textbook ever written, committed to memory?

Which would you rather have flying you: a pilot with 100 hours of experience... or a pilot with literally every training manual, technical errata and NTSB accident report ever written, committed to memory?

Data is everything.



Nobody said it was cheap. But if it wasn't the future, one of the two largest aerospace companies on the planet wouldn't be investing in it, now would they?



As that article illustrates, fully a third of all aircraft accidents since 1950 have been due to pure pilot error, and if you factor weather into that, the number increases to almost half. Now, we don't have stats for how many crashes were averted due to pilot effort (e.g. miracle on the Hudson) but I'm willing to bet good money that in terms of human lives, that number is far lower than the number of lives lost.

Automate it all - pilots, air traffic controllers, the works.

No. If there is something out of the expected a human would improvise vs a 'kernel panic' :D

Most planes fly on auto pilot most of the time but things still go wrong with that and it can't handle it, bring on the human.

Airplane!.jpg
 
Yip. That Qantas A380 would habe come down, were it not for the pilots.

As well as the Miracle on the Hudson.

Then there is the case of UPS Airlines Flight 6 where the final act of the co-pilot was to intentionally crash in a a deserted piece of ground between residential areas.

Another interesting fact is the chunk of crashes are traced back to the emergency check lists being incorrect. One of the reason Miracle of the Hudson happened was that the pilot deviated form it and deployed the auxiliary PSU earlier. An auto pilot will follow that check list to the letter.

In a lot of other cases the errors reported to the cockpit does not indicate the actual failure experienced, El Al Flight 1862 got multiple engine fires warnings while in actual fact two engines dropped of the aircraft damaging the wing on the aircraft. This lead them to follow the wrong checklist which was responsible for them hitting an apartment complex something an auto pilot will do as well.

You then also have a case where they developed the checklist by winging it ie. United Airlines Flight 232 which was then later instrumental in saving other aircraft like DHL Express Iraq Nov 2003.

Pilot error is a significant chunk of crashes that I agree with but training and proper management can reduce this significantly it just that the airlines ignores this because it costs money. The amount of crashes due to the pilots being to tired or pressed for time is ridiculous. The worst aviation disaster to date happened due to a strict deadline and a radio static error.
 
Which would you rather have performing surgery on your brain: a surgeon with 100 hours of experience... or a surgeon that has literally every medical textbook ever written, committed to memory?

Which would you rather have flying you: a pilot with 100 hours of experience... or a pilot with literally every training manual, technical errata and NTSB accident report ever written, committed to memory?

The answer is the machine, with a expert on how that device works and the ability to intervene in the room.

I think a frighting statistic for some okes would be how often an airliner goes into manual control. Most pilots I know will say something like "I've done 2 auto landings in my 20 year life on a 777" or something.

The drive to completely remove a flight expert from being on board is nonsensical. The arguments made for all the intuitive software that can and should be written can simply be turned around towards nearly anyone's career in this thread but for some reason the most sophisticated software AI to be designed needs to be fully trusted where peoples lives is a stake. It's silly.
 
Then there is the case of UPS Airlines Flight 6 where the final act of the co-pilot was to intentionally crash in a a deserted piece of ground between residential areas.

I haven't seen anything to indicate this was intentional as opposed to a "happy" accident. Furthermore, an important contributing cause of that crash was that the flight deck air conditioning system failed, which allowed smoke and fumes to enter the cockpit and incapacitated the crew. Had that system - which had been reported faulty on a previous occasion - worked, the crew would likely have been able to make a controlled emergency landing. So, once again, this comes down to human error/negligence, although this time on the part of the airline and/or its maintenance crew.

In a lot of other cases the errors reported to the cockpit does not indicate the actual failure experienced, El Al Flight 1862 got multiple engine fires warnings while in actual fact two engines dropped of the aircraft damaging the wing on the aircraft. This lead them to follow the wrong checklist which was responsible for them hitting an apartment complex something an auto pilot will do as well.

Garbage in, garbage out. If you have incorrect information, you're probably going to make incorrect decisions. Had the instruments (sensors) been more useful and indicated the actual error, a human or AI pilot would have been able to make a better decision that could have saved the plane.

You then also have a case where they developed the checklist by winging it ie. United Airlines Flight 232 which was then later instrumental in saving other aircraft like DHL Express Iraq Nov 2003.

DC-10 design meeting:

Engineer #1: We need to make the control systems redundant so that the plane is still flyable should something fail. My proposal is 3 redundant hydraulic systems.
Engineer #2: AND LETS PUT AN ENGINE ON THE TAIL, AND THEN ROUTE ALL THE REDUNDANT HYDRAULIC SYSTEMS NEXT TO THAT ENGINE, AND THEN NOT INSTALL FUSES TO PREVENT FLUID LEAKAGE IF THAT ENGINE GOES BOOM DURING FLIGHT AND PUNCTURES ALL 3 SYSTEMS, THUS RENDERING THE "REDUNDANCY" USELESS
Engineer #1: This sounds like the worst f**king idea in history, people are going to die!
Boss: I agree. Engineer #2, what do you say?
Engineer #2: DOING IT THIS WAY WILL SAVE US 2 CENTS PER AIRCRAFT
Boss: Design approved, build it.

No human or AI pilot could have saved the DC-10 from being a terrible design. Regardless of that, however, any sufficiently competent AI would have come to the same conclusion as Flight 232's flight crew, namely that the only control mechanism remaining was the engines, and would've utilised them accordingly. In fact McDonnell-Douglas's very own F-15 STOL/MTD had an autopilot capable of exactly this in the late 1980s, and ironically the same plane is being used to train the Intelligent Flight Control System neural network that is intended to be capable of dealing with situations outside the norm of aircraft operation.

Pilot error is a significant chunk of crashes that I agree with but training and proper management can reduce this significantly it just that the airlines ignores this because it costs money. The amount of crashes due to the pilots being to tired or pressed for time is ridiculous. The worst aviation disaster to date happened due to a strict deadline and a radio static error.

Which is exactly what AI pilots avoid. They don't get tired, they don't get distracted, they don't need bathroom breaks. Remove the pilot from the equation and you have one less thing to fail or blame - because software is formally verifiable, it can be tested in an error scenario, and if it does the right thing, it either wasn't the software at fault, or the situation was completely unrecoverable.
 
Which is exactly what AI pilots avoid. They don't get tired, they don't get distracted, they don't need bathroom breaks. Remove the pilot from the equation and you have one less thing to fail or blame - because software is formally verifiable, it can be tested in an error scenario, and if it does the right thing, it either wasn't the software at fault, or the situation was completely unrecoverable.

+1
 
Watched the UPS flight 6 crash investigation yesterday. Went down due to cargo fire.

Problem scenario for example what if the engine ingest birds or ice. blades destroy hydraulics. how do the auto pilot adapt to fly the plane with they systems that is available?
 
Which is exactly what AI pilots avoid. They don't get tired, they don't get distracted, they don't need bathroom breaks. Remove the pilot from the equation and you have one less thing to fail or blame - because software is formally verifiable, it can be tested in an error scenario, and if it does the right thing, it either wasn't the software at fault, or the situation was completely unrecoverable.

That is all well and good, which is why having most of the routine stuff handled by computers (like fly-by-wire) is a really good thing. However it is impossible to design for every single scenario possible. The only way you can get around it is if you create a general artificial intelligence that has a sufficiently abstract model of the local universe(which is what a trained pilot is).
 
Problem scenario for example what if the engine ingest birds or ice. blades destroy hydraulics. how do the auto pilot adapt to fly the plane with they systems that is available?

You do get fault-tolerant control systems that can fly a plane with partially damaged controls. They can probably keep a plane in the air better than a pilot.
 
You do get fault-tolerant control systems that can fly a plane with partially damaged controls. They can probably keep a plane in the air better than a pilot.

Yip. NASA developed the technology already, and tested it that enables a airliner to change direction and land itself when the rudder etc is not working, by only using engine thrust. A pilot can do this manually, but it is really really difficult to do.

Boeing, Airbus and their customers were not interested though, because it would be expensive to roll out and seeing as it is a very rare event, not worth it.
 
Boeing, Airbus and their customers were not interested though, because it would be expensive to roll out and seeing as it is a very rare event, not worth it.

Let's be honest here: these companies are saying that cost of implementing smarter systems is more than the cost of potential lost lives. I have a massive problem with that, but apparently regulatory authorities don't.
 
Let's be honest here: these companies are saying that cost of implementing smarter systems is more than the cost of potential lost lives. I have a massive problem with that, but apparently regulatory authorities don't.

Yip.

It is a pitty, because now the technology was left behind and has not been developed further. Or perhaps Boeing and Airbus is tinkering with it still somewhere in a basement. Who knows. I would assume it is mostly a software thing.
 
I haven't seen anything to indicate this was intentional as opposed to a "happy" accident. Furthermore, an important contributing cause of that crash was that the flight deck air conditioning system failed, which allowed smoke and fumes to enter the cockpit and incapacitated the crew. Had that system - which had been reported faulty on a previous occasion - worked, the crew would likely have been able to make a controlled emergency landing. So, once again, this comes down to human error/negligence, although this time on the part of the airline and/or its maintenance crew.

Indeed. Sheer blind luck. The smoke in the cockpit was so dense the pilots could not see the digits on the radio to change frequency.
 
Indeed. Sheer blind luck. The smoke in the cockpit was so dense the pilots could not see the digits on the radio to change frequency.

That is how I got it from the air crash investigation episode regarding the scenario.
 
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