CapeXit 2

[ToxicBunny]

Well, if ol' Phil gets his act together, this is most likely his future
View attachment 1873280

So Papa might be wagging vir hom in Pollsmoor then.

 

[Cray]

Against my better judgement, here's some combined and balanced(?) AI on the subject...

Have a nice Xmas everyone.


In the last 50 years, few secessionist movements have achieved full international recognition. While hundreds of active movements exist, scholars typically identify only a handful of "pure" successful secessions from sovereign states alongside the major geopolitical fragmentation of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia
.


Notable Successful Secessions


South Sudan
Country in East Africa
South Sudan
(2011): Seceded from Sudan following a decades-long civil war and a 2005 peace agreement that led to a 2011 referendum. It is the world’s youngest sovereign nation.

Timor-Leste
Country in Asia
Timor-Leste
(2002): Formerly East Timor, it achieved independence from Indonesia after a 24-year occupation and a UN-sponsored referendum in 1999.

Eritrea
Country in East Africa
Eritrea
(1993): Seceded from Ethiopia after a 30-year armed struggle and a subsequent referendum in 1993, gaining full UN recognition.

Montenegro and Serbia (peaceful separation in 2006)

The Former Soviet Republics

The collapse of the USSR led to the secession of 14 independent states—including Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltic nations—from the Soviet central government.
The Former Yugoslav Republics

Starting in 1991, Slovenia, Croatia,
Macedonia
, and
Bosnia-Herzegovina
seceded from Yugoslavia.
Montenegro
later followed in 2006, and Kosovo declared independence in 2008 (though it lacks universal recognition).

Bangladesh
Country in South Asia
Bangladesh
(1971/72): Though slightly outside the 50-year mark, it is often cited as the first successful non-colonial secession of the modern era, breaking away from Pakistan with military assistance from India.


Disputed or Partially Successful Cases

• Kosovo
  (2008): Declared independence from Serbia with support from many Western nations, though it is not yet a member of the UN due to lack of recognition from several major powers.
• Somaliland
  (1991): Operates as a stable, de facto independent state after seceding from Somalia but lacks formal international recognition.

• Successful Secessionist Movements and the Uncertainty of
  have remained unchanged from 1640 until now. Although Catalonia is just one example, there are currently hundreds of these movemen...
  
  ScholarsArchive@OSU
  
  
  
  
• Chapter 7: Successful recent secessions in - Edward Elgar online
  30 Aug 2018 — Chapter 7: Successful recent secessions in: Secession in International Law. ... This chapter analyzes cases of recent s...
  
  Elgar Online
  
  
  
  
  
• American Secessionist Movements: Overview | Research Starters
  Secession can be peaceful or violent, as the break-up of Yugoslavia demonstrated: Slovenia and Macedonia seceded relatively peacef...
  
  EBSCO

In the last 50 years, several regions have achieved
de facto secession, maintaining effective self-governance despite lacking broad international recognition.
Somaliland
has operated as a stable democracy independent of
Somalia
since 1991, though it remains unrecognized by any UN member. In the post-Soviet space,
Transnistria
(since 1990),
Abkhazia
(since 1999), and
South Ossetia
(since 1991) maintain their own governments, militaries, and currencies with varying degrees of limited recognition, primarily from Russia. Other notable cases include the
Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus
, recognized only by Turkey since 1983, and the
Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic
(Western Sahara), which is recognized by the African Union and dozens of states but lacks control over much of its claimed territory. These entities are often described as "frozen conflicts" where the seceding state functions effectively even without a seat at the United Nations.

Would you say this list is a positive or negative advert for secession?

 

[Brian_G]

Would you say this list is a positive or negative advert for secession?

The question to ask is; do we need to consider it? (Quite a number have according to polls, and liked doing just that much, not so VR?)

Some will instead choose to continue burying their heads in the sand

...and IMHO, rather going the legal route.

This ^^ is the key. Certainly worth a try

 

[Splinter]

Imagine demanding citizenship of a country you're actively seeking to secede from.

Mind numbingly dense. Imagine supporting someone like this.

 

[quovadis]

Hopefully from your lips to Phil's ears

He’s way past this point

 

[Grant]

Bye

good thing a revolving door was installed

 

[Brian_G]

good thing a revolving door was installed
View attachment 1873315

 

[Grant]

tourettes combined with an itchy vagina ?

 

[vigras rojara]

Well, if ol' Phil gets his act together, this is most likely his future
View attachment 1873280

Yes, that's a topic the CI crowd are not too keen on.

 

[vigras rojara]

The question to ask is; do we need to consider it? (Quite a number have according to polls, and liked doing just that much, not so VR?)

Some will instead choose to continue burying their heads in the sand




This ^^ is the key. Certainly worth a try

Your list is a bit like someone asking for a car recommendation and being provided with a list of fatal accidents involving such car.

 

[WollieVerstege]

Your list is a bit like someone asking for a car recommendation and being provided with a list of fatal accidents involving such car.

 

[Vrotappel]

 

[NoStepOnSnek88]

Cape Independence Group challenges Ramaphosa's referendum rejection.​

President Cyril Ramaphosa has unequivocally rejected any proposals for a referendum on the secession of the Western Cape, asserting that the Republic of South Africa will remain one, sovereign, democratic state as guaranteed by the Constitution.

Ramaphosa stands firm against Western Cape independence proposals

President Cyril Ramaphosa affirms the unity of South Africa amid calls for Western Cape independence in a strong rebuttal to secessionist ambitions:

www.capetownetc.com

On a referendum
The President reportedly states that he has no intention of considering a proposal or holding a referendum on the secession of any part of the country.

By his own admission, none of the parties in the Government of National Unity (GNU) have asked him to call a referendum, and likely neither has anyone else. Section 127(2)(f) of the Constitution grants Provincial Premiers the powers to call provincial referendums and therefore any official referendum on Cape Independence would be called by the Western Cape Premier and not the President.

On 23 September 2021, we hand delivered a letter, by appointment, to President Ramaphosa’s representative informing him that on the 15 September 2021, we had formally requested Premier Winde to call a referendum on Cape. We provided President Ramaphosa with a copy of that request.

Since Premier Winde has thus far refused to call such a referendum, we are currently making preparations to hold our own referendum in the Western Cape following the successful example of Veneto in Italy. Few, if any, referendums are legally binding so who calls it is less relevant than its credibility. As both the Supreme Courts of both Canada and the United Kingdom have stated, the power of referendums in a democracy is not the legally binding nature of the referendum, but the establishment of the democratic will of the people which cannot easily be ignored.

Funding is currently the primary obstacle to the holding of a private referendum and the CIAG invites potential funders to get in touch.

RESPONSE TO PRESIDENT: CIAG responds to Ramaphosa on Cape Independence

CIAG responds to a statement by the President relating to Cape Independence, calling his comments disingenuous and explaining why

www.capeindependence.org

PRESS STATEMENT: RP calls on South Africa to recognise Somaliland. All people have a right to self-determination, Somaliland is already functioning as an independent state, and Somalilanders have voted for independence
The Referendum Party (RP) and the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) call upon the South African Government to follow Israel’s example and to formally recognise Somaliland as an independent state.

International law is unambiguous, ALL people have a right to self-determination. The International Law Commission (ILC) lists the right to self-determination as a peremptory norm (jus cogens) of international law - a right which no state may derogate. Self-determination shares this special legal status alongside (amongst others) the prohibition of genocide, the prohibition of slavery, and the prohibition of racial discrimination and apartheid.

PRESS STATEMENT: South Africa Must Also Recognise Somaliland | RP News

PRESS STATEMENT: RP calls on South Africa to recognise Somaliland. All people have a right to self-determination, Somaliland is already functioning as an independent state, and Somalilanders have voted for independence

www.referendumparty.org

@Brian_G & @Grant & @lexity
came across this latest development.
There's a lot to read through here.

Weird that all these press releases happened in the festive season, just before new years.

 

[NoStepOnSnek88]

Why would the CIAG mention the following?

"Funding is currently the primary obstacle to the holding of a private referendum and the CIAG invites potential funders to get in touch."

Wouldn't the primary obstacle be a majority of votes, above 50% of WC residents, or perhaps above 50% of South Africans for a private referendum ?

 

[Brian_G]

@Brian_G & @Grant & @lexity
came across this latest development.
There's a lot to read through here.

Weird that all these press releases happened in the festive season, just before new years.

Not really anything new but good to see Phil calling for Somaliland support, and now being open about funding issues.

You won't hear from Lex here, he's taking a break, and Grant may not be too interested further.

Why would the CIAG mention the following?

"Funding is currently the primary obstacle to the holding of a private referendum and the CIAG invites potential funders to get in touch."

Wouldn't the primary obstacle be a majority of votes, above 50% of WC residents, or perhaps above 50% of South Africans for a private referendum ?

The CIAG have been holding well respected professional polls for years, which consistently show that a high percentage of WC-ians are indeed interested in at least a referendum, if not actual independence itself. At times various results have been over 50%.

Some think that suggests a positive outcome in any referendum, but some believe the opposite based on the very poor result in the last national elections.
The question of why there's such a large contrast between those two results is likely unanswerable though - IMO it's a matter of not enough info having been made available by CIAG & co. for people to trust enough in actually taking the step forward. Though there's much doubt that WC-ians would actually take the plunge anyway, the country isn't exactly in a current wide emergency condition as we all know.


Follow the thread for any more, much of this was discussed regularly. I'm just posting any news now when I see it, like you.

 

[quovadis]

Not really anything new but good to see Phil calling for Somaliland support, and now being open about funding issues.

You won't hear from Lex here, he's taking a break, and Grant may not be too interested further.




The CIAG have been holding well respected professional polls for years, which consistently show that a high percentage of WC-ians are indeed interested in at least a referendum, if not actual independence itself. At times various results have been over 50%.

Some think that suggests a positive outcome in any referendum, but some believe the opposite based on the very poor result in the last national elections.
The question of why there's such a large contrast between those two results is likely unanswerable though - IMO it's a matter of not enough info having been made available by CIAG & co. for people to trust enough in actually taking the step forward. Though there's much doubt that WC-ians would actually take the plunge anyway, the country isn't exactly in a current wide emergency condition as we all know.


Follow the thread for any more, much of this was discussed regularly. I'm just posting any news now when I see it, like you.

Not sure why supporting a referendum is trumpeted as support for secession nor do I understand why, if the support is so large, a private referendum hasn’t gone ahead as yet.

 

[Brian_G]

Not sure why supporting a referendum is trumpeted as support for secession

It's not, they're separate questions in the polls.

nor do I understand why, if the support is so large, a private referendum hasn’t gone ahead as yet.

Just been focused on by Phil - there's a financial support issue (and perhaps other factors).
You didn't just read that?

BTW, I prefer to just play a passive role in this thread now, maybe ask your questions undirected. Cheers :- )

 

[quovadis]

It's not, they're separate questions in the polls.


Just been focused on by Phil - there's a financial support issue (and perhaps other factors).
You didn't just read that?

BTW, I prefer to just play a passive role in this thread now, maybe ask your questions undirected. Cheers :- )

What happened to the money they’ve collected so far? Why can’t they fund raise openly with a target? Surely with even 10% support that would be almost trivial to reach the funds needed?!

 

[Brian_G]

What happened to the money they’ve collected so far? Why can’t they fund raise openly with a target? Surely with even 10% support that would be almost trivial to reach the funds needed?!

You remind me of the Q character in Star Trek.
Do I look like an agent for them?

 

[ToxicBunny]

What happened to the money they’ve collected so far? Why can’t they fund raise openly with a target? Surely with even 10% support that would be almost trivial to reach the funds needed?!

Phil needed a shopping trip in DC.